40 rubles for 1 dollar?

One of the leaders of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia, Yuri Shafranik predicts next year's drop in oil prices, budget deficits and rising dollar. Former Minister of Fuel and Energy believes that average oil prices in 2011 will drop to $ 60 per barrel, which would be significantly less optimistic forecast of the government, determines that the value of "black gold" will be $ 75 per barrel. An opinion backed up Shafrannik forecast of the Institute of Energy Strategy, which has the exact method of calculation of oil prices over the last three years has provided reliable prediction. A possible cause of the fall in oil prices is called the instability of the global economy and the expectation of the second wave of financial crisis. The expert simply convinced that next year will the deteriorating economic situation. "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" confirms this view the position of the heads of European and American institutions, believing that it is still too early to draw conclusions about the end of the crisis. When oil prices fall, the newspaper said that the budget of the country could lose up to 15% of their income. And according to the chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalya Orlova, even budget this year is possible only at $ 120 per barrel, while in 2007 this document was coded when calculating the price of oil at around $ 20-30. As a conclusion: over the past three years the State repeatedly reinforced the dependence on energy prices finally turned away from the policy of economic diversification. Since next year will be elections to the State Duma, the government will likely not abandon its commitments, and a hole in the budget due to low oil prices, will be closed by external borrowing. If the forecast Yuri Shafrannik justified, it will inevitably lead to a rise in price of foreign currency. Dollar in this case, can grow up to 40 rubles. But all of this in theory. According to economic commentator Maxim newsru.com Blunt, the exchange rate is completely dependent on the decisions of the Bank of Russia "and listen in this case it is better to believe their leaders Sergei Ignatiev and Alexei Ulyukayev. And next year is likely and the other scenario, when the oil price will rise to $ 100 per barrel.