Wednesday, June 1, 2011

$ 60 per barrel - is critical but not fatal for Russia

In world currency markets we have seen a strengthening of the euro to 1,6 dollars for a single European currency ", - comments Bank.ru analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevech. "But at that point growth ceased. In general, it was small and was due to two main factors. The first reason - good dynamics in the Asian markets. In - the second, played its part reported a trade surplus of Australia. This suggests that Chinese demand for raw materials remains high. Since Australia exports the resources in the PRC. The Russian currency market the euro also slightly strengthened against the ruble. The dollar continued to decline. In my opinion, the U.S. currency will fall to the level of 31 ruble. By and large, now markets a news vacuum, so the trades are slow. Let me remind you that on Friday went bad data on the labor market in the U.S.. But markets have responded to these statistics is weak. However, in my opinion, the market still remembers the negative. They are increasingly beginning to worry the United States. Recently emerged weak data on the housing market, according to orders in the industry. And in Europe it is not very good. Greece is likely to be forced into restructuring their debt. Thus, until the end of the dollar and the euro will trade in the area of ??1,2-1,3 dollars per euro. Dynamics of the Russian ruble will be entirely dependent on oil prices. If Europe is not able to solve their problems, and the U.S. will be forced, for example, propose new costly programs, the price of black gold could fall very much. Since all this will mean that old American anti-crisis measures will not give that effect, which was calculated, investors and governments in many countries. If we consider not the most negative scenario, the end of the year in case of worsening macroeconomic situation, the ruble may drop to 33 rubles per dollar. Oil prices may fall to $ 60 per barrel, the probability - 50%. If this happens - it will be very bad for our economy, but not fatal, "- said the expert.

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