Anton Wicker: On the market there was a shock

Subject buying foreign currency is always relevant in times of crisis. In recent weeks, some economists have frightened the public, to predict the weakening of the ruble. It is not known for this reason or not, but the national currency a little bit passed their position. His views on the processes shared makroanalitik "Rayffeyzenbanka Anton weaving. - In recent days, economists argue: some predict the devaluation of the ruble, others are talking about speculative excesses. What position you stick to and why? - From 13 to 22 September, the ruble against the currency basket (consisting of 55 cents and 45 cents) fell more than 3% or about 1 ruble. Such a dramatic weakening has not happened since May 2010, when investors were frightened by the fiscal problems of the eurozone. Therefore, the concerns of people about the future of the ruble as a whole is clear. It must be emphasized that the exchange rate shock has occurred associated with the outflow on capital account, which is a very volatile component of the balance of payments. Current account remains positive, although diminished due to increased imports. According to our estimates, capital flight began in July, however, until September, its size does not exceed the current account balance and, despite the increased volatility, a serious weakening of the ruble is not happening. In September, capital flight intensified, resulting in value against the currency basket has increased dramatically and reached, after which the Central Bank began planning the sale of currency, the ruble weakened constraints. Within days, sales of securities were able to calm the foreign exchange market and the situation stabilized. Answer precisely the question, what is the nature of capital outflow occurred is now impossible. Some clarity will be able to make balance of payments data for the third quarter, which the Central Bank will publish in October. However, attention is drawn to a few large transactions, which could lead to an outflow of currency - is selling a controlling stake Uralkali, the redemption of LUKoil shares from their «Conoco», repayment of foreign currency loans, "VEB" Rusal and Altimo. In addition, it should be noted that the forward market did not react to a sharp weakening of the ruble. Most participants did not perceive it as a signal to a change in trend. We also believe that what happened is rather a short-term shock than a long-term trend. - Ex-deputy chairman of the Central Bank Sergey Aleksashenko said that the external debt of business and government can become a serious factor in the weakening national currency. Do you agree with this opinion? - On the corporate foreign debt and associated risks, say more than a year and it is unclear why these risks have to be realized now, when the appetite of foreign investors to the risk of Russian borrowers increases. Problems with refinancing of foreign loans, most large companies now do not. Another thing is that some of them started to take in rubles and foreign currency loans to pay, which, of course, leads to capital outflows. However, the extent of these conversions until recently was not so significant to radically change the situation on the foreign exchange market. With regard to foreign debt, it is now at the minimum level of payment to him are extremely small and the conversion for them are not carried out in the open market, but directly with the Central Bank. Therefore, these operations are in no way affect the currency market. - How do you see the dollar and the euro by the end of the year? - We believe that the ruble against the currency basket will be strengthened somewhat from current levels - on 1,5-2%. At the same time, prospects for further strengthening the ruble become increasingly murky.