Arabs and Europeans - Chained together

This is a management decision cartel was not unexpected for analysts, since the intention to maintain the existing rules from the beginning of the year oil production has repeatedly said the organization's representatives. Recently, CEO of the organization Abdalla Salem el-Badri (Abdalla Salem el-Badri) said that among the participants of the cartel exists a consensus on the need to leave quotas unchanged. Recall that the share of OPEC accounts for about 40% produced in the world of "black gold", according to El-Badri, current oil prices are "comfortable" but it "reserves a bit high." The head of the cartel believes that the organization should "bring the prices down to reasonable levels." "Earlier, director general of OPEC said that the organization decides to increase oil production at a meeting in Luanda, only in the case of formation to December 2009 the necessary conditions - the appearance of tangible signs of recovery from the global crisis, global economy and reduce hydrocarbon reserves", - transmits RIAN . However, in mid-November, the president of OPEC's Oil Minister Jose Botelho de Angola Vasconcelos told the media that the quotas will remain unchanged, as the stocks of raw materials in the world economy are significant and have not yet matured. In total, OPEC comprises 12 countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Venezuela. Record oil prices OPEC basket (OPEC Reference Basket of crudes) was established July 3, 2008 - 140.73 dollars per barrel. The average price in 2008 was 94.45 dollars per barrel. "OPEC decision was expected. More recently the Minister of Energy of Algeria, said he did not expect to reduce or increase the supply of oil from the oil cartel countries "- comments Bank.ru Analyst in Macroeconomics CJSC IFC Solid Andriy Borodkin. "Today, many experts suggest that the decline in mining countries - OPEC members will be scheduled for early 2010. However, we do not believe the production cuts at all in the first half of 2010: the values ??of Baltic Dry Index (an index value of freight - Ed.) Are not only below the historical peak in 2008, but recent local maxima of the June and November 2009 . At the same time, oil prices are in the corridor of $ 75 - $ 80 per barrel, which is quite satisfied with the countries of the oil cartel. Note that the Arab countries (the core of OPEC) is strongly affected by the crisis, so the next year in their budgeted price of oil at $ 45-55, in relation to today's realities is able to support the recovery of their economies. However, if oil prices fall below these values, the number of countries simply will not cope with servicing its obligations, possible defaults. In lending to countries in the Persian Gulf has long bogged down European banks that such a development could start a chain development of a new round of crisis. These factors clearly suggest that OPEC's simply dangerous to increase production now. True, there is another version: according to several independent studies, not all countries comply cartel quotas. By some estimates, OPEC quota marks in aggregate only by 62%, which also speaks in favor of prematurity raise the official production volumes ", - the expert believes.