But alarmists - shoot

Three months ago, Vladimir Putin and his team claimed: Russia - "an island of stability", the crisis will not affect her. At the last meeting, Prime Minister said: The authorities have promised that "shock therapy" is not - and it does not, through these measures. Since the crisis we have or not a crisis? It is remarkable that our national television the word "crisis" is generally not used. There is a "crisis response", "anti-crisis headquarters", "crisis meeting", but "crisis" there. Of course, we can say that there is no crisis, and "shock therapy" is not. But in the country for six months from $ 600 billion foreign exchange reserves, "eaten up" 250, that is 40 percent ... If this is not a crisis, then what? It seems to me that the crisis is breaking an established trend. In Russia, the eight-year trend of growth, economic recovery has broken, and broke with a bang. Starting somewhere in 2005, and government officials, experts and okolopravitelstvennye chorus shouting that we have lost dependence on the oil needle "that we have a share of exports in the economy is decreasing, we have other mechanisms of growth that we have domestic demand. .. But here came the global recession, the world said: "You know, we no longer need so much oil. And we need to become much smaller. Well, aluminum, copper, nickel, too, so do not need much." And we saw how big the Russian economy on oil. However, I do not think that Finance Minister Kudrin lied when in mid-September saying that we have the "island of stability". Most likely, he really believed in it. Self-hypnosis? Believe the First Channel television, which paid for optimistic program? That's it. When you do not have the normal feedback mechanism, you get back exactly the signals that send themselves to the wall. The game of squash primitive: what's message was sent - so ago and came. You made a statement the next day it was printed in the papers, your experts gathered news from newspaper and brought you the news. And you will rejoice: "Behold how good, then everything in the economy. What I said yesterday, as it is in life and there." The crisis, of course. Enough to raise the chronicle of the statements of our economic officials who, they say, already themselves entangled in the testimony. One said that the devaluation will not happen. The other - that would be, but smooth. The third - which would be, but not now ... People who work as a team, at least talk to the same thing. And then the first vice-premier Shuvalov said that tomorrow the government will discuss the revised budget, and "tomorrow" is meeting the government - and no budget is not discussed ... It is clear that over the deputy prime minister is the prime minister. But, the deputy head of the Government no informed person? You know, do not necessarily tell the whole truth, but do not lie. But Putin said that "all actions to mitigate the negative impact of global crisis on the Russian economy are transparent and publicly, they are taken as a result of active dialogue with the regions, businesses, the key political forces and civil society organizations." I do not think the Finance Minister Kudrin was lying when, in mid-September, saying that we have the "island of stability". Most likely, he really believed in it. I have no doubt that the decision to cut export duties was made in an active dialogue with oil companies and the decision to allocate money to banks - in an intensive dialogue between government officials and bankers. The problem is that society does not know it. I do not think, however, that Vladimir Vladimirovich is a problem. A week ago we heard his speech in Davos, where he is wonderful talked about economic policy in any country. Here are just left to learn the name of this country. Because in Russia, where he is the premier real economic policy is on other principles. Although, perhaps Vladimir Putin really believes: that there is an open, public process. Transparent, as they say. Our students are interested in the forecast over the dollar. Believe the promises of power, which is higher than 36 rubles will not rise? If we talk about very short term, well, let's month, even a half, it seems, the ruble will be held within the corridor of the currency basket (41 rubles), announced by the Central Bank. Because in recent weeks, the Central Bank conducts monetary policy tight enough: do not give the banks new rubles. And fortunately our ruble (or unfortunately the dollar, great and terrible) decision to revise the 2009 budget, resulting in very large part of the budget is simply not funded. Treasury finances the salaries, the most necessary operating expenses, utility payments. But the bulk of the budget money is not spent. Would you like to say that de facto sequestration is already underway? De facto is a sequestration of budget execution. But it says only that, suppose two or three or four weeks, ultimately, the budget in one form or another will be approved, and it turns out that spending in this budget will be more than planned - taking into account the Fund of National being, subordinated loans, to support banks ... When those Dollars will go to the economy, the rate of the ruble against the dollar to sustain a new wave of raids. Because the Dollars will come - and the memories of how the ruble savings very quickly lost their value, once again arise. Another factor: the end of February, the Central Bank should withdraw, withdraw from the banks back about 530 billion rubles in unsecured loans. If the central bank will insist that he returned the money, the banks will be forced to sell dollars - and the dollar will weaken. If the banks persuade the Central Bank and the government: "we should not have to take the money, it is very bad, better give us more" - and, let's Central Bank will give them another 500 billion rubles ... Then the dollar will start to move upward. In short, based on what we see today, I somehow calm on the course "- one ruble dollar." In the near future, until then, until we have more information on the monetary or fiscal policy. But there is circumstantial things. Prime Minister Putin said that Vnesheconombank is to finance projects in small and medium-sized businesses for an amount not less than 30 billion rubles. Russian presidential aide Dvorkovich said that infrastructure projects will not fall ... Hence, the money will go. And where they fall? On the foreign exchange market, including. Absolutely. And there's such a thing as infrastructure bonds, which - next financing, in addition to the budget. Well, many will kanalchikov. Now it will be very interesting to see the emergence of the channels through which money will flow into the economy. And in what areas the government will cut spending budget? Declared the same as income less than the planned 40 per cent ... I'm afraid the government does not have so many opportunities for cutting costs: many do not reduce to one reason or another. For example, would be raised salaries and pensions - one can not refuse it. Going to reduce the number of MIA, but against the backdrop of heightened protests until the Interior Ministry decided not to touch. It is impossible to reduce the costs associated with all sorts of utility payments, payment of bills - not to accumulate budget stuffy. You can not cut defense spending, because even from the standpoint of the American administration, the cost of procurement of arms - it is a public demand, is to support the economy. And it is in a crisis that's exactly it would be wrong - do not buy that the state has ordered. You can not reduce support for the regions: they all put on a "needle", styanuv all the money in the center ... Can not be reduced, probably the APEC summit in Vladivostok. Olympics can not be reduced. And it turns out that the cut-then nothing special. Due to what fund the shortage? You may ask the Central Bank: "print money" - but it seems we are prohibited by law. We assume that the government on the case will not go. The second option - to go to foreign markets, no matter how heavy they were, and say: "Guys, let us in debt." Precedents exist: the government of the Philippines for about three weeks ago, has attracted $ 6 billion, than to ensure its funding needs for the entire year. The third option - to start spending money the Reserve Fund. Actually, as I understand it, while the third option is chosen as the most appropriate. Well, it means that everything that has been acquired by back-breaking labor for several years, we will begin a very active waste. Let me remind you that the Reserve Fund at the beginning of this year amounted to 4 trillion rubles at the end of January he was about 5 trillion rubles by the devaluation. That is, the fall of the ruble, the growth of the dollar leads to an increase in our reserve fund. Until the end of the year will suffice. In the middle of the year, says Dvorkovich, will rise in some industries. And next year - is gradually emerging from the recession of the world and Russian economy. In this case, promised that Russia was the first out of recession ... How's that for a forecast? We were the last country in the world, which recognized that it is a crisis. We are the first country in the world in terms of extended commitments. The volume of government pledges - about 10 trillion rubles, or 25 percent of GDP. This amount of economic aid package has not announced any other country in the world. And I'm willing to bet that this aid package will not be realized. And what about Russia's withdrawal from the crisis ... I doubt it. Unless the government asks for our statisticians "right" to calculate growth rates, it is unlikely that we will be the first. The crisis will be a long, difficult. Do current government policies to overcome it? My answer - no. Because analyzing his moves, you can not understand what the government wants to achieve. The other day Shuvalov did a very good statement: Russia's economic growth will be zero percent or less. For example, I think that score - it is not growth. A less than zero - this is a recession. How many will fall? I do not know. I think again - how to count. Remember Stalin, "no matter what vote, and importantly, how to count? In my opinion, from 3 to 5 percent. Here students write: "Lucky you, that now the financial crisis, and not war, but then you would be shot as alarmist." Yes, we do not panic. We're just discussing what we see and talk about events. Another sent us a nasty political question about the responsibility of the government: "Gavriil Popov in Moskovsky Komsomolets, wrote that the government incompetent, does not have coped with the crisis, and Medvedev have put a question on the government's resignation and early elections. What is your comment?" Fortunately for our government, Gavriil Popov is not an adviser to our president. I think the government's resignation should not be expected. In my opinion, the government does not operate in a crisis: it is unclear what goals it wants to achieve and how it plans to do so. But from the standpoint of the president and, I think, in terms of the prime minister, the government copes well with its objectives and achieves the desired results: no one threatens their position. That is the task of maintaining itself in power is solved successfully? That's it.