Capital outflow from Russia has accelerated

Capital outflow from Russia has accelerated from $ 6.2 billion in March to $ 7.8 billion in April, the first deputy chairman Gennady Melikyan Central. Raised $ 600 million to $ 21.9 billion Central Bank and the evaluation of the outflow in I quarter. About this newspaper Vedomosti on Monday, May 23. Melikyan of the words that the Central Bank has revised the data of the outflow in the first two months of the year. Previously, employees of the Central Bank estimated outflow in January at $ 11 billion in February - to $ 6 billion, so in March, the outflow would be $ 4.9 billion, not $ 6.2 billion outflow began last September, in 2010, he totaled $ 35.3 billion, on average per month - about $ 3 billion, now it has risen to $ 7.4 billion, estimates Maxim Osadchiy from BKF Bank. Julia Tseplyaeva of BNP Paribas expects to reduce net capital outflows in the II and III quarters, but now is going to worsen its outlook. While statistics of the Central Bank denies the words of officials: they hope that the high price of oil will increase capital inflows. At year-end capital inflows can be zero, said earlier Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in early April, said that Russia may finish the year at all with net capital inflows. In November last year the central bank had expected inflows of $ 10-20 billion in 2011, when the price of oil $ 90 per barrel. The World Bank forecast a net inflow of $ 13 billion Due to high oil exporters have in the past month, higher incomes, but not repatriated and converted a portion of the revenues, fearing that would strengthen the ruble and, consequently, increase their costs, said Gavrilenkov from Troika dialogue ". Need for additional capital firms have, "he continues," the budget and business plans were drawn up last year, firms have opportunities to invest surplus revenues in major projects, a large amount of liquidity the economy is not needed. Gavrilenkov expects that in May, oil prices will fall in price and profits of exporters will decline. Real deposit rates have become almost negative and the real sector more profitable to keep funds overseas, said Vladimir Tikhomirov from Otkritie. Outflow may also be related to the situation in the markets of developing countries, believes Tseplyaeva. According to EPFR, the total outflow of funds since the beginning of 2011 with emerging markets totaled $ 7.3 billion from Russia - $ 3.068 billion, investors worried about a possible increase in the tax burden in 2012, describes another possible reason for the outflow of capital Natalya Orlova from Alfa Bank. In one of the experts are unanimous: the high oil prices by themselves are no longer able to attract investors (average price of a barrel of petroleum of mark Urals - $ 107,5), they are too afraid of the uncertainty of the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2012 Tseplyaeva waiting for a large capital outflow in the IV quarter , ie, before the election. "The political situation in Russia, investors perceive the risk, a long-term trend that will not end before the election," - says Osadchy. Russia's political system is customized for specific characters, in such a situation, investors shun long-term solutions, agrees Gavrilenkov.