According to the most authoritative source of the banking sector - the Bank of Russia, it is expected that problems with lack of capital from Russian banks will come to the fore in the first half of 2009. According to the deputy director of the department of banking regulation and supervision of the Central Bank of Russian Federation Mikhail Kovrigina this problem will affect all banks, without exception. According to Kovrigina, the first shock, which was associated with liquidity risk, failed to pass, but now come to the fore issues relating to credit risk. "All the bankers say they expect or have seen deterioration in the quality of credit risk, as the corporate portfolio and for retail," - he said. More specific assessment leads Chairman VTB 24 Mikhail Zadornov. In his view, the growth of banks' loan portfolio Russia will slow down to 10 percent. in 2009. However, with regards to his ward, Zadornov noted that VTB 24 plans to grow faster than the market. Its loan portfolio for individuals to grow by 20 percent. More than 20 percent. increase deposit base. The banker explained that the main factors influencing the slowdown in lending, is the fall in demand from the population, as well as stricter requirements for borrowers. Also, he said, can not maintain this state of affairs when the loan portfolio is much larger than the population's deposits. "This year, the loan portfolio of natural persons has increased by 40 percent., And deposits by 14 percent. The average for the market" - he said. In addition, the inevitable increase in overdue payments and the growth of "bad debt" as a consequence of a general economic downturn. This opinion is shared by the experts of the Central Bank. According to forecasts, 2009-2010, will take place under the sign of the consolidation of the banking system of Russia. Several other forecasting estimates of their loan portfolios followed by other banks. For example, MDM-Bank although forecasts growth of bad debts before the end of 2008 to 3 to 2.6 percent. at the end of the third quarter and up 8.5 percent. at the end of 2009, but expects that the bank's loan portfolio in 2009 would not change significantly and remain at the end of 2008. "The loan portfolio less reserves in 2008 is projected at 190 billion rubles Done" - said findirector Bank Vadim Sorokin. Also, MDM Bank plans to increase reserves for possible loan losses at the end of 2008 to 5,3-5,5 percent. the size of the loan portfolio. Sorokin said that the bank does not close the loan programs and will continue to lend to "blue chips". This scenario also adhere to state-owned banks. Agricultural Bank plans to the end of 2010 to increase its loan portfolio to 720 billion rubles. In this case, the head of state programs Kovyrshin Bank Alexander said that as of December 1, 2008, the value of its loan portfolio amounted to 432 billion rubles, but the following year it reached almost 450 billion rubles. Kovyrshin also noted that despite the unstable economic situation, the outflow of deposits of individuals in Rosselkhozbank not observed. "During the third quarter, cash balances in the accounts of individuals increased by 5 billion rubles, - he said. - In general, since the beginning of the year, deposits increased by 70 percent." Bank of Moscow in their forecasts for 2009 also exceeded the estimates of experts VTB 24 and expects growth in the loan portfolio by 15 percent., Albeit not expect significant growth in deposits. "We will increase reserves for potential losses, depending on how you will increase the share of problem loans," - said the head of the Bank of Moscow Andrey Borodin, noting that so far, compared with the beginning of the crisis it has not changed. Commenting on the situation with the contributions of physical persons, Borodin noted that the whole year will increase, but the outflow, which was observed in the autumn of this year, will make certain adjustments to the gain. "But overall the banking system will be a plus, the last speaker on deposits shows that they are more open than closed," he explained. According to the head of the bank, the preferences of the population has shifted in the direction of foreign currency deposits. "If their share of" pre-war period was about 20 percent., Now risen to 40-45 percent. "- He said. In turn Rosbank forecasts growth of retail loan portfolio in 2009 by 20 percent. According to First Deputy Chairman Bank Board Igor Antonov in 2008, growth of the portfolio is expected to reach 40 percent .. "The total amount of loans issued in November, we have reduced in 1,5-1,7 times in comparison to the monthly average, but in December, we think it will increase the grant and execute the plans that were put at the beginning of the year ", - said I. Antonov. Rosbank representative said that the bank does not turn off any credit program and continues to issue car loans, mortgages and consumer loans in cash, the truth was forced to tighten the requirements to customers." The Next year we are laying the increase in the portfolio, despite the crisis. We expect that in 2009 the growth of credit portfolio of about 20 percent. "- Added Antonov. The first deputy chairman of the bank explained that the bank plans to build a portfolio through the use for this purpose all possible means - deposits of natural persons, corporate deposits, profits and capital and shareholders' equity. Representatives of the Government provide a more in-depth assessments of possible problems associated with lending. Chairman of the Federation Council Committee for Financial Markets and Currency Circulation Dmitry Ananiev believes that the disturbing factor in the banking sector - the availability of credit and reduction in lending activity. However, increase the refinancing rate, in turn, leads to difficulties in the real sector. On the air, "Echo of Moscow radio, he also noted that in a crisis, which" exposed serious systemic shortcomings, our economic and legislative weak base, "to overcome current deficiencies." Current crisis will undertake work on our mistakes and work on the legislative framework, "- he concluded.
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