Drop us a dream

Automotive GAZ Group has publicly appealed to the creditors for the initiation of restructuring loans and bond obligations. The crisis in the global economy sharply affected the automotive industry, including machine building business Oleg Deripaska. Until the end of 2009 GAZ Group is expected to return to creditors of almost 36 billion rubles. But supercritical drop in demand for cars and buses have GAZ does not give companies the possibility to pay their debts. Some time ago, automakers are counting on financial support from the Russian government or at least on its loan guarantees. However, in accordance with Government Decree on February 14, 2009 № 103 the maximum amount of state guarantees for the obligations of a principal can not now exceed 10 billion rubles (in the case of the GAZ Group is less than a quarter of total debt). But even the 10 billion rubles available yet machinists. At the moment the question of providing state support group, consider the Ministry of Economic Development and the commission headed by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. But the officials, alas, not in a hurry with the letter of guarantee. Meanwhile, management of GAS and consultants from Raiffeisenbank lenders already offer his own version of debt restructuring and the subsequent survival of the business scenario. Gas proposes to extend the validity period of all loans for five years with a two-year grace period on principal and semi - on interest payments. Because all that can lay on credit obligations, the company has already laid, to safeguard the rights of creditors they were invited to enter their representatives on the board of directors of the company. The base forecast further "survival" GAZ Group includes the restructuring of a number of industrial sites through the merger of companies holding group, producing products of the same profile, and a pessimistic scenario can be even more ruthless: almost all the engineering focus of production at the site of the Gorky Automobile Plant in Nizhny Novgorod. And as one of the measures discussed was listed closing production of cars Volga Siber - a project that gave the Russian car industry completely different compared to the traditional Russian, the level of technology, experience and competencies. Is even this inherently altruistic, a project of Mr. Deripaska may be destroyed, together with GAZ Group? It seems to us, let it not be in any case. GAZ GAZ Group is stalling brings together almost two dozen plants producing commercial vehicles, heavy trucks, cars, buses and engines, as well as road-building machinery. On the commercial segment accounted for more than 70% of group sales. Since the beginning of the crisis it is he has suffered more than others. Unavailable or roads were loans for the purchase of commercial vehicles, deeply dipped building complex, etc. In 2008, payments to dealers, the group carried out upon shipment and a delay, from January 2009 all new deliveries were carried out almost exclusively on a prepaid basis. The market rose. Due to a sharp drop in demand for gas for January 2009 decreased by 68% in monetary terms and in 70-95% - in kind. In the absence of orders the team was forced to reduce the load capacity of up to 30%, go on a three-day shift, part of the staff to translate into wage rates in the two-thirds of the salary of the send on administrative leave, and even cut in half staff management companies. Major providers of the group in 2008 were Magnitogorsk, Urals Steel, Novolipetsk Steel and Severstal. Before the crisis payments to them were carried out with a deferred payment of up to 45 days. But, despite the significant reduction in steel prices and raw material in the fourth quarter of 2008, accounts payable to suppliers of GAS, including metallurgists, seriously increased and exceeded 17 billion rubles. Overdue kreditorki group today - 7.4 billion rubles. Arrears of the group, including the disbursement of the bond issue in January and February 2009 have already amounted to 13.5 billion rubles, Shipment of steel products to the plant stopped. According to preliminary results, a net loss of GAZ Group in 2008 amounted to 5.2 billion rubles, while in 2007 she graduated with a profit of 7.2 billion rubles. Group predicts that over the next three years, it will also generate losses. So, in 2009, is projected to net loss will increase three times - to 15,7 billion rubles. About 23 billion rubles of the total loan portfolio of the GAZ Group is obliged to repay in the first quarter of this year, and until the end of December this year avtopromyshlennikam to pay at least another four-fifths of the total debt. In the mortgage loans GAZ Group is everything: equipment, building products and property rights, a controlling stake. More than a third of the debt is concentrated in state banks (VTB, VEB, Sberbank and Gazprombank) - is 15.46 billion rubles. Among the other creditors - Absolut Bank, Alpha Bank, Swedbank, Commerzbank, Credit Europe Bank Petrocommerce, Raiffeisenbank and Uralsib. Now, in fact, the crisis forced the GAZ Group, whose total debt is estimated at nearly $ 45 billion rubles, seek help from the state. Companies need support in negotiating with creditors, because other options, except perhaps that the yield for bankruptcy, it does not. In fairness it should be noted that the management of gas has been prepared for the crisis, and pretty quickly opened a wide-ranging and tough anti-crisis program. Under the plan submitted by the company intends to increase sales of products, free resources for timely servicing of loans and intends to seriously work on the costs. In order to reduce production costs by 20%, will be optimized processes, 10% reduced energy consumption. By balancing shifts reduced the cost of components, including its own production. All of this was provided by the program previously introduced flexible production planning (principle Toyota Systems). During the crisis of liquidity in the market of commercial vehicles a crucial role in consumer preferences is low price for the products. Management GAZ has become study options for the budget modification of products (without reducing the resource base with a decrease in the selling price up to 20%). Another way to overcome the crisis will be intensification of sales - providing dealers delays in payment and other favorable terms. Priority support will be key partners, loyal, capable of effective demand in times of crisis. It is also expected to reduce the cost of marketing logistics at 10%. The transition to the new planning system will increase the amount of direct shipments from the factory to the dealer network, bypassing the warehouse. Already implemented the system address storage of cars. Scheduled and other events. The Group partially suspended production of light commercial vehicles at the site in the Nizhniy Novgorod in order to reduce inventories in warehouses and working capital and to have more money (it may give about $ 150 million). Gas is also considering selling its British subsidiaries of - the manufacturer of light transport LDV Group - management of the company. However, the main problem is gas, as, indeed, all the Russian automotive industry lies in the fact that no one now can not at least roughly predict how much actually drops demand for passenger and commercial vehicles this year and next, respectively. Can not retreat According to the analyst for investment bank UBS Engineering Ilya Makarov, creditors GAZ somehow have to negotiate a debt restructuring, because the situation is still poorly understood and unpredictable for all. For better management of assets of GAZ Group in the current environment as creditors, probably will not be able to find, so will have to negotiate. " Most painful for the group - essentially folding of new projects and investment programs. Thus, the company plans to suspend investment in the project Gazelle-3 (development of a new model, which in 2011-2012 had to replace today's "Gazelle") and in the production of light commercial vehicle Maxus (Now gas it imports from Britain from the factory that most LDV Group, which plans to sell). The main threat to gas, as analysts said the investment company Troika Dialog, is to limit its business to produce older models, while the world's automakers will continue to capture the Russian market, despite the crisis. Then, according to analysts, the long-term market position and its share in it are threatened. One such promising areas as time and is a project of Volga Siber. In autumn 2008, a group of journalists "Expert" able to see this project in Nizhny Novgorod, with their own eyes. Sensation of something really serious and a breakthrough in the Russian machine-building industry did not leave us during the tour of the factory. This investment project in Nizhny was certainly a breakthrough in the western part of obtaining automotive technologies and competencies. Some analysts argue that the Russian market did not accept the model Volga Siber. Bulky, all-American car, perhaps, was indeed still is unusual ordinary Russians. One would agree that there was a marketing blunder. But, apparently, no one was doing big bets on marketers. It is obvious that this is a niche car, where you can work out all the technologies and innovations that have emerged in the global automobile industry over the past two decades, when the Russian car industry is slowly and surely curved, not withstanding competition in the global market. The strategic objective of the project - to create a modern hi-tech manufacturing facilities, to master the latest technology, train staff, in close partnership with leading global manufacturers. And all this was done in full. Head of Division of cars GAZ Group Leonid Dolgov told "Expert": "The project was carried 3,5 thousand units of equipment, including several hundred robots from a factory in Michigan - where the car was manufactured Chrysler Sebring. Our contract meant purchase of the platform and the entire plant. As a result, obtaining foreign technology and customize them specifically for our project, we received the following competencies. First of all, we figured out that the level of automation and programming systems of the second and third level, where all information is drained directly from the robot the level of technical and economic services. It just was not in Gaza. I think that in Russia, this was not. The degree of automation at the site Volga Siber - 85 percent. In general, the extent of automation welding shop is only in the U.S., Europe and Japan. Neither China nor India is no such. Secondly, we have completely rebuilt the structure of engineering design documentation. Did the so-called modular structure of the product. And we have is directly related to IT-system, which we also implemented specifically for this project. Third, we learned a new way to work with suppliers. We have built a new procurement system. on the patterns of Western companies. relied on the experience of Magna. Fourth, we became champions of Russia in the localization of auto components. Finally, we have built the same tough quality system as on the best factories in the world. We have a strict procedure for audit and vehicle for continued operation and durability tests. This is a tracing of GM and Chrysler ". Serial production of Volga Siber began July 25, 2008, but the novelty will retail in October. Until the end of the year GAZ dealers were able to implement only 428 of these cars. In January, sales of Volga Siber totaled 197 cars. Unfortunately, Volga Siber has not got a list of cars that will be sold to the public on credit with a rate subsidized by the government. State plans to boost sales of cheaper cars. Although 487 thousand rubles for a big roomy car with a two-liter engine and automatic gearbox - this is not so much. Some believe that it is for the better: that cranks off the gas to be trained on "Cyber" and now it's time to fold up shop - closing the passenger areas will be the only solution of GAZ Group in the current environment. But, thank God, the gas is not in a hurry with this. "To claim a cut-Volga Siber, and even more so the departure of the GAZ Group of the passenger segment is currently no reason.'s Anti-crisis program, developed by the management of the GAZ Group, takes into account all the possible options for future development and, among other things includes a list of measures in case of implementation most pessimistic predictions, "- said on Gaza. Note that Group GAZ is continuing negotiations with the world's leading manufacturers about the possibility of release on its production sites of other car models. It remains to note that the draft Volga Siber - it's an ideological bomb under the Toyota and Chrysler, exorbitant selling its cars in Russia, while not wishing to transfer to the Russian territory the production of class above the screwdriver assembly. And because there are good reasons to support the gas project "whole world".