Wednesday, June 1, 2011

The euro will remain a weak currency

"Today, the euro is again under pressure on the global currency market, the dollar strengthened," - says a leading specialist Bank.ru IR "Financial Bridge" Philip Lysenko. "Obviously, the position of the euro weakens the uncertainty surrounding Greece. Until now, the provision of that state financial assistance in question. Germany continues to stall for time. The market is waiting for how to resolve this situation. Greece will certainly help. Greeks need to refinance a large amount of sovereign bonds. Money they have. Likely sovereign default. This is a very strong blow to the entire eurozone. Therefore, Germany and France, to dress up to help. The question is whether the terms on which will provide this assistance, what will be its volume. If the conditions are tough, for example, interest on loans are too high, then Greece simply can not pay for them. The idea is that short-term growth of the single European currency is possible. But, overall, the euro will remain weak currency. Too many problems in all eurozone countries. Oil is trading confident at 85 dollars per barrel. Apparently, the price comfortable with both buyers and sellers. At the same time, the market is unstable, any negative information, any statement by a senior official, authoritative party roar, the regulator may cause the fall of the market. In the U.S. the situation is certainly better than in Europe. Easier for them, this is one country that has experience in overcoming the crisis. GDP data come out positive. But worth to remember that the figures are usually compared with the first quarter of 2009, it was the bottom of the crisis. Therefore, to talk about a stable and uncontested recovery sooner. Consumer demand remains weak. As for Russia, then inflation will rise. At year-end inflation will be at least 10%. Government can not ensure that this figure was ambiguous, rather than two digits. Rates fall, money is more on the market, they become cheaper, a lot of liquidity in the market, prices will rise gradually, although not steadily, recovering demand. All of this suggests that prices will rise faster than assumed in the official forecasts, "- said the expert. At 16:49 MSK on the UTS MICEX dollar fell to 29.0955 rubles (-0.1461), the euro, by contrast, rose to 38.8375 rubles ($ 0.0069).

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