Everything depends on oil

Budget deficit of the Russian Federation in January-June 2010, according to preliminary data, amounted to 439.91 billion rubles. This is illustrated by the Russian Ministry of Finance. The primary deficit of 344.73 billion rubles. According to preliminary estimates, the amount received in the I half of the federal budget revenues amounted to 3.995 trillion. rub. Recall that Russia's budget deficit this year is projected at 5.4% of GDP (2.4 trillion. Rubles).. While it was previously assumed that this figure will be 6.8%. Due to the fact that expenditures will exceed income by a smaller amount, the Reserve Fund will not be spent until the end of 2010, as previously planned. Meanwhile, the volume in the first half fell 33% to $ 1 trillion. 227 billion rubles. To finance the federal budget deficit were sent 519.5 billion rubles. We note that the Government has committed itself to reduce the budget deficit by 2013 two times, he must be not more than 3%. True, due to which this is done, it is not clear? At the prow of the election. Reduce the social, public spending is unlikely anyone will. The fact that the Kremlin will be able to cover the deficit through new taxes, such as a luxury tax, too, is doubtful. It is obvious that Russia's economy is totally dependent on oil. According to Kudrin, if the price of oil will be at 50 dollars per barrel, the deficit would inevitably grow up to 8% of GDP. The base forecast by the Kremlin to the value of "black gold" for this year - $ 75 per barrel. And in his latest report on Russia, the World Bank notes that even an increase in hydrocarbon prices will not significantly reduce the budget deficit, as will be indexed pensions and increase social spending. That is, high oil prices will reduce fiscal discipline and to provoke the authorities to populist solutions. "High prices have played a cruel joke on the Russian economy and become a good lesson for us. The most favorable level of oil prices about 80-100 dollars a barrel, but should not exclude the possibility of a brief drop to 60 dollars per barrel »,