Experts: refinancing rate will not rise

Bank of Russia in May, most likely, will not raise interest rates because inflation is under control, and economic growth has been relatively weak, believe the experts interviewed by RIA Novosti news agency, selling of opinion over the next increase in reserve requirements. The agency reports that on Friday, May 27. Most experts said that inflationary risks in the economy remain, and the end of the year the refinancing rate reaches 8,5-9%. The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on interest rate policy will be held on Monday, May 30. At the previous meeting in late April, the Bank of Russia contrary to the predictions of analysts raised the refinancing rate by 0.25 percentage points - to 8,25%, the same has been increased and the rates on individual transactions. The first in December 2008 raising the refinancing rate by 0,25 percentage points occurred in February. Analysts polled by RIA Novosti news agency agreed that the next increase the refinancing rate in May did not happen. "Central Bank has already demonstrated that he is able to surprise and make unexpected. But my opinion is that after the increase in rates last month, the Central Bank decides to take a break, but maybe the next increase in standards for CDF ", - says the chief economist Uralsib Capital" Alex Ninth. "Most likely, CB, hold the horses in midstream, as inflation is under control, and banks have hinted that in the event of a further rise in interest rates will raise interest rates on loans that will be a real" gag in his mouth "to our economy, only to start rebuilding" - believes Head of analytical department of the IR BCS Maxim Shein. In his view, the Russian finregulyator slow down and rising standards of FMR - statistics on the banking sector is still very comforting, but it increases the outflow of funds of funds investing in Russia. Analyst at VTB Capital's Alexei Moiseyev also believes that the regulator will take a pause on all instruments. "No new signs pointing to higher inflation, has not appeared, and the growth of industrial production until quite vague" - he explained. "Change should not be, indeed, grounds for them was in April," - says a senior economist at Troika Dialog, Anton Struchenevsky. He recalled that a year ago, with similar levels of inflation rates have not increased, but decreased. According Struchenevsky, the regulator reasonably raised the standards of the CDF for non-residents, thus creating a barrier to the carry trade, but now the basis for further tightening because there is no excessive influx of petrodollars into Russia. Chief economist at Deutsche UFG Yaroslav Lissovolik also believes that the rates and the standard of emergency in May, will remain unchanged. Experts agreed that the Central Bank is unlikely to tighten in the near future exchange rate policy. On the contrary, the regulator should reduce the amount of intervention and allow a more flexible exchange rate, the more so now serious pressure on him not. Otherwise you have to start printing money, which further break up inflation.