Foreign exchange market reacts strongly to bad news - the comment of the expert

"Now the Russian ruble is trying to recover from the recent fall in support of rising oil prices caused emerged last week about reports of problems encountered in the state fund Dubai World debt servicing," - commented Bank.ru Anton Zakharov, analyst at PSB. "Following the auction on November 30 the cost of the currency basket fell by 6 kopecks. 35.82 rub. Euro in the day weakened by 6 kopecks. (43.83 rub.) Ruble. U.S. dollar exchange rate fell by 7 kopecks. (29.27 rub.). We do not rule out that the traditional Christmas rally could happen this year, but under one condition, if the end of the year the Central Bank of the United States and the euro area, do not take the decision to tighten the screws, namely to increase the refinancing rate. Further developments on the domestic market will depend on the monetary measures taken by the authorities of the developed economies. Thus, in mid-December will be a meeting the U.S. Federal Reserve, which may hint at possible measures to eliminate excess liquidity provided by financial institutions during the crisis, which was on the stock and commodity markets. In addition, the program infusion of money to the U.S. mortgage market are nearing completion. If the regulator decides to tighten monetary policy, it will automatically lead to a substantial strengthening of the dollar in the international arena. Then, this situation will lead to falling prices for commodities (commodities such as oil, metals, etc. - Ed.), Including oil prices, and this is the main factor of growth rate. In this case, as shown by recent practice with Dubai World, our market still remains very thin (vulnerable to negative news, investor sentiment, - Ed.), And dependent on conditions in international markets. Therefore, the ruble may drop to 38 rubles. for the two-currency basket. At the same time, if no action to slow the appreciation of the ruble will not be accepted by the end of the year the value of currency basket may again test the lower boundary of a crawling band CBR - 35 rub. "- The expert believes. At 16:33 on the MSK to ETC MICEX dollar fell to 29.1407 rubles (-0.0254) at 16:32 MSK on the euro, by contrast, rose to 43.8863 rubles ($ 0.0042). Rates of Central Bank of Russia on December 2: USD 29 1,771 rubles (+0,1084), EUR 43,8736 rubles (+0,1078).