The growth of deposits attracted by banks exceeded the forecasts of natural persons

The Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) has raised the forecast of growth of Russian banks attracted deposits of natural persons up to 22-24% with the previously announced 14-18%, follows from the review, published on the agency website. "According to initial estimates DIA, in 2009 the growth rate of deposit market will be from 14 to 18%, which corresponds to the volume of deposits at the end of 2009, about 6,700-6,950 trillion rubles. Currently, the translational dynamics of the market is close to the upper boundary of the forecast, and continuation of positive trends in growth of deposits for the year may be higher than initial estimates (at the level of 22-24%), "- said in the review. Conditions of this scenario are a stable macroeconomic environment, the positive rates of income growth, decline in consumer credit and the relative stability of the ruble against a basket of currencies before the end of the year, experts say DIA. Before the crisis, total average daily increase in deposits in the first half of 2009 amounted to 3.2 billion rubles a day, but if you look at the trend observed since the beginning of February 2009, the average growth rate of 2,5 billion rubles (in the first half of 2008 , the average daily gains were 3.3 billion rubles a day). The highest proportion of retail deposits was observed in mid-2004, when they reached 29.4% of liabilities of banks. In recent years the decline in the share of deposits in liabilities was due to the faster growth of banks' own funds, borrowed funds of legal entities and funds of banks, including as a result of growth in foreign borrowing, explain to the DIA. In 2008 the share of retail deposits decreased by 4.5 percentage points - Up to 21,1% with 25,6%, with the main decrease occurred in the fourth quarter, when the share of deposits declined by 2.9 percentage points, while Bank of Russia has considerably increased its lending to banks. In the first half of this year, the trend has changed, and the proportion of individuals 'funds in banks' liabilities increased to 23,4% from 21,1%, mainly due to the inflow of funds into deposits and reduce the funds of banks, including Bank of Russia. Deposit Term Cut In the first half of this year for the first time in recent years have seen a slight decline in the share of long-term deposits (for over one year) - up 64.9% to 65.2%. The share of deposits of more than three years in January-May 2009 decreased to 7,0% from 7,5%. Simultaneously, the first time in a long time there was significant growth of deposits with a term accommodation ranging from one month to one year - up to 19,2% from 17,8% (previously the proportion of deposits decreased continuously). In the sector of demand deposits observed the reverse reaction - their share in the first half fell to 14.9% from 17.0% at 1 April 2009 and rose slightly - to 15.9%, whereas in recent years, it did not fall below 17 , 0%. "It is likely that the decrease in demand deposits due to the increased demand of people for money in the face of shrinking real incomes and rising inflation," - believed to DIA. In general, over the past few years have demonstrated the greatest growth is long-term (over one year) deposits, thus providing a major share in the growth of banks' resource base at the expense of deposits. Currently, however, against the background of the overall uncertainty of the economic situation and future income, and volatility in the ruble exchange rate of the investors chose to invest in less-long contributions, thus taking a wait. Portal Bank.ru Materials Rihanna.