Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Hack no danger - comment by an expert

"Today, the Russian currency market quotations of the ruble does not change significantly", - commented Sergei Bank.ru Karyhalin, an analyst at IG Kapital. "In general, this week our national currency strengthened. This is due to two main factors. First, oil prices remain quite high. In a country receives a lot of currency to sell to buy U.S. Dollars. Second, open market borrowings. Our companies issue bonds in foreign markets and receive funds, in particular the euro. In my opinion, over the coming months to strengthen the ruble will continue. In the global foreign exchange market experienced growth of quotations of the euro. Since Greece has gone on significant measures in order to fulfill the requirements of the European Union. They found a way to reduce the budget deficit by 2%. True, they will have to reduce it by another 2%. Since the requirement of Europeans - to reduce the deficit to 4%. From a purely economic point of view it might seem that there is no point in helping Greece, no. Too much foreign debt. But in the European Union there are many other weak countries with large debts that need to refinance. This is Portugal, Spain, etc. They need to issue their bonds to get money to repay existing debt. If the situation with Greece will continue to deteriorate, then other countries will be harder to get to market borrowings. And anyway, in general, forcing the situation around the Greek problem is absolutely not profitable EU, including Germany. However, it is clear that the Germans would not be quick to help. Greeks will have to take deeply unpopular measure. In a downturn economy, increase revenue opportunities are severely limited. Therefore, they will need to cut costs. At the same time, reducing government spending, reducing wages, pensions, etc., the Greek government will reduce the amount of money from people in the economy. This means that people will spend less, buy, and that means including the decline in tax revenues. In other words, a recession could be even stronger than expected today. But what else is still there. When created the euro zone, was euphoria, old Europe is trying to expand its sphere of influence of the former Eastern bloc. Invested huge amounts of money. The European Union has openly weak countries from an economic point of view. Now is the time to gather stones. Of course, today all eyes are turned investors in Europe and its problems, but to say that the Europeans have more difficulties than the Americans, I would not. Important for us to only one thing - the price of oil. In my opinion, is unlikely to global oil consumption will be significantly reduced. Therefore, the ruble, in my opinion, nothing will happen "- the expert believes. At 16:57 MSK on the UTS MICEX dollar fell to 29.8330 rubles (-0.1272), the euro, by contrast, rose to 40.6728 rubles ($ 0.1923).

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