High inflation in the Russian Federation considered inevitable

On Thursday, the government at a meeting approved amendments to the federal budget in 2011. New costs will be more at 418.4 billion rubles. Out of which 74.4 billion rubles. allocated to cover the deficit of the Pension Fund. Him the money may be needed for a possible second indexation of the retirement pension, said in a memorandum to the amendment. About this newspaper "Vedomosti" on Friday, 22, referring to the minutes of the meeting which is held by the publisher. The insurance part of the labor retirement pension, invalidity and survivors' benefits are indexed in a special manner: if a price increase for the first half will be more than 6%, it would take the same indexing. In the first six months of price growth may exceed 6%, refers to the Ministry of Finance Ministry of Economic Development, so the increase of pensions will have to spend on August 1. Sector wages due to inflation can also indexed, but is likely to fall, said a Finance Ministry official: this can be spent around 23 billion rubles. of dopdohodov. According to the latest forecast of the inflation target for 2011, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development, the rise in prices in the first half of the year was 5,8% (3,7% in I quarter and 2,1% - in the second). In III and IV quarters prices have sharply stop their growth: 1,4%. III quarter - the key, according to Economic Development, 20,7% cheaper fruits and vegetables, while inflation will be only 0.2%. The Government expects that inflation will not exceed 6,5-7,5% (Ministry of Economic Development in the forecast - 7.5%), said Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin expressed hope that Russia has the prospect to reach the level of inflation below 7%. Central Bank sets a corridor of 6-7%. To say that inflation is low, even if it is not true - correctly, according to government official: "The growth of prices depends on the expectations, and senior officials of their form. To say that inflation will be high - it means to provoke the growth. " As the Vedomosti, but government does not have experts who believe that inflation will be low, sweeping the chief economist at BNP Paribas Julia Tseplyaeva. Such a policy does not lead to a decrease in prices and the loss of credibility and the statements of officials, she said. For the half year prices will rise more than 6%, end of year - 8,7%, Tseplyaeva sure the government knows about this, so reserve funds for indexing. Oksana Osipova of the Center for HSE agrees with his colleague: 6% for six months - a very likely scenario, and the annual plank of 7,5% will be overcome. This year, there is no reason to slow inflation, says Tseplyaeva. If prices rise for six months will not exceed 6%, indexed pension will not be, the official said the Ministry of Finance: then, probably in the autumn amendments to the budget they will become one of the sources of redistribution of money for new spending.