Ilya Vladimirovich, what the dynamics of the market you expect in 2009? Should expect a decrease in some types of insurance. Primarily, this will affect those species for which policies are implemented through banks and car dealerships. Decline in the share of insurance will also be in construction and generally in the corporate sector. Company's customers will be harder to treat conditions of the contract, and already started to cut budgets. We hoped that reducing the corporate budget for the insurance amount to 10-15%, but early reports are substantially more - 20-30%. Transport Ministry says a decline of rail and air, respectively, reduced cargo insurance. A key challenge for operators in these market conditions will maintain their financial stability, even if the premiums for some types of insurance will drop. In a downturn it is especially important. What problems oversight and insurers may face in the next year? Most likely, it's dumping, inflated fees, the provision of various discounts, or unreasonably broad coverage, then insurers will have to take those risks that would be better not to get involved. In anglophone countries, there is a saying risk-adequate pricing, ie pricing, adequate risk. For us in the next year it will be the number one problem. Problem number two - all sorts of tenders, which in many areas of insurance, frankly, doomed to perpetual conflict. For example, in the compulsory motor TPL insurance proposal largely formalized. Content services defined by law and insurance regulations, approved by the government. Rates again defined by the government. What, in fact, may offer an insurance company, which can not ultimately offer a different? Nothing. And the system itself is rigged bidding on the fact that different parties are traded only on the price or something else quantifiable indicators. Most likely, we can expect even any string of corruption scandals involving various tenders, whether compulsory motor TPL insurance, medical insurance or something like that. PPL is not very clearly reflects the specifics of possible trades in various fields. Is there already distressed companies among the market leaders? Explicitly, no, if we bear in mind the top 10. For some insurers, members of the top 50, may already have problems, but it all depends on how right or wrong, they will behave. Will they be prone to dumping or is it a try next year to attract customers with quality insurance services. While the situation is absolutely full-time. Constantly there are companies that have problems with financial sustainability. The current situation from last year is no different. How much can decrease due to the crisis the number of insurance companies? Obvious patterns that would have shown that the reduction will be a third or half, or 20% does not exist. If we fail to put up a barrier against the schemes, we can easily predict the increase in the number of companies. One would suspend the issuance of licenses, because right now in a recession is unlikely to exist serious economic foundation for the emergence of new insurers. But in the law, no such restriction, and therefore we can not grant the license. That is, we should expect the return schemes in insurance? Which species will be most convenient for this? Most often they are sold through a chain of reinsurance. Since the interest in them will be mutual - both on the part of insurers and their clients, and by law enforcement agencies, the odds are that will create short-insurance and reinsurance companies. I do not think that the number of circuits increase significantly. Now their share is estimated at 10%, which is already a lot. True, we have slightly less optimistic assessment - up to 15%. During the unstable economy after the events of 1998 and 2004 there were basically salary "projects", which was carried through life insurance. Also attended the scheme in cargo insurance and liability, followed by reinsurance abroad or cashing in Russia. A problem of "large" AIG and other major foreign insurers could spill over into the Russian market? I think not. In the late 90's "AIG-Russia," said she was 100 per cent subsidiary of the parent and is a guarantee, now says that is an independent division, based on our own forces and by developing our own plans and his own volition. Insurers around the world, except such as AIG and Fortis, feels very good. The problems of AIG and Fortis are not related to the fact that they were engaged in insurance. Difficulties appeared due to service a very different character, and also because of problems in the face of the financial group. Now in Russia opens his "daughter" reinsurance company SCOR. However, before the end of next year, hardly anyone would actively seek new field deployment of capital. Committee recently met for insurance OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Representatives of countries that includes the back, told us that they are in the insurance sector. Rare unanimity - "we are fine." Insurers feel better because they sit at the beginning of the financial flows. They earn even in a time when it came to money. Practice shows that this sense of the insurers lasts the first 3-6 months, as is maintenance contracts concluded much earlier. The recession will begin in six months, when markedly reduced effective demand. Expected large decrease in corporate spending on insurance. On the other hand costs the citizens are likely to remain the same. The following year, namely retail, working with individuals, will be the most stable source of insurance premiums. Do I need to how to adapt the regulation of the insurance market under crisis? Companies are now "caught" with an investment portfolio, not only in terms of loss of value. I very much hope that will soon be made a sensible decision on how to reflect in the balance of these "paper" losses. If these assets do not need to sell today or tomorrow, then next year they will return to its previous level. Insurers hit by falling stock market, due to a sharp deterioration in the real estate sector due to problems in the banking system. But all of this external environment and in this case it would be logical for the company to align the financial recovery plan, and we would track its implementation. Insurance companies are in favor of changing standards, but analyzing the statements of insurers, we see no need to change the structural parameters. I believe that no norms have changed, and technology to "cure", recognizing that around the epidemic and in many respects the problem of insurance companies are not caused by their wrong policies or unreasonable action, and changes in the external environment. Extremely dangerous to change the scale of measurement and say that the market is all right. How serious are the problems with asset management? There's no good, but the explicit there is no crisis. Indeed, there are companies that are seriously entered the stock market and not by 5-15% and 30%. When the market went down in September, many have made a mistake - has decided to buy shares in the hope that it's not a trend, but just a correction and the quotes will rise tomorrow. And the market went even further. This is a serious problem, but, again, is not critical. What is your position on the issue of tariff changes on the insurance? I believe that before talking about the basic tariff, it is necessary to introduce an independent examination and a unified methodology to assess the damage. Adjust the regional coefficients and coefficients of mode of transport, to stop paying unreasonably high commissions to agents. Furthermore, it should calculate the economic impact of the transition to the European protocol and simplified registration of an accident and then determine whether or not to change the base rate. And do it all must be very fast, in my opinion, very little time left. I am more than confident that the Government with timely submission of the Ministry of Finance will take reasonable solutions. What is the reason an increase in state Rosstrakhnadzor? We recovered only a number that has been in office in 1996. Staff only increases in inspections. The reason is that, firstly, it becomes much more complicated controls, new actors, in particular, brokers, and, secondly, we understand that our prospects are not very simple and quick control should be enhanced. A physical inspection today simply suffocate. You mentioned the brokers, their crisis is not touched? Crisis with a high probability of such irregularity will freely relation to certain rules of conduct in the market. We are already faced with a situation where brokers transferred large amounts of compulsory civil liability motor. Company's goes, but from money brokers are not available. In fact, these market participants hanging dual responsibility - and before the insurer and the client. In an environment where everything is good, all behave in good faith - why break the law, when everybody all missing? But when conditions deteriorate, then shows either bad faith of individual participants, or unsettled their activities. Already we have seen that the activities of brokers not regulated by taking into account the risks that they currently have.
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