In 2009, the Russian budget can be coded with a deficit - the first time in 10 years. Even with the optimistic scenario prices

The budget deficit next year could reach 5% of GDP, said a Finance Ministry official, but this figure is working. Figure of 5% was confirmed by government officials, but added that the deficit could be even greater. According to official Ministry of Economic Development estimates, the deficit is inevitable: 3-6% of GDP. From a recent macroeconomic forecast, we can conclude that next year the budget will miss 32% of revenues - 3.5 trillion rubles, of which oil and gas - 1,2-1,5 trillion rubles, "he concludes. Government official said that the deficit figures are relative - is now difficult to make forecasts more than one or two quarters. We must develop new mechanisms makroprognozirovaniya that will predict the dynamics of the crisis. Yesterday the forecast was to consider committee for budget projections, but instead went to the draft anti-crisis commission of first vice-premier Igor Shuvalov. Meeting of the commission for budget projections, which is headed by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, was transferred several times. While in the schedule of Putin's year-end meeting of the commission does not appear, said his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, but the schedule is flexible and it may appear. Restated version of the macroeconomic forecast upon which shall be adjusted budget, approved last week: the baseline scenario of economic development for the year 2009 average oil price - 50 dollars per barrel, GDP grows at 2.4%, investment in fixed assets - 1 4%, industrial production fell by 3,2%. A new version of the draft budget the Finance Ministry in the government has not yet submitted. Budget revenues will be at 3 trillion rubles less than in the approved version of the budget, estimated by Alexander cellularity of the Economic Expert Group (EEG): oil and gas revenues will be twice smaller than expected, greatly reduced and income taxes, including those due to what is now the federal budget is not 6.5% of revenues, while only 2%. The expenditure budget may be reduced by 8%, according to official Ministry of Economic Development, in this figure, however, does not include the cost of anti-crisis state aid. First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, who conducted a series of sectoral meetings, summed up the demands of business: 3.5 trillion rubles. According to experts EEG Helena Lebedinskaya, despite attempts to cut investment costs (they will be sequestered by 15%), in 2009 their amount will increase: because of anti-crisis expenses costs could grow to 9.5 trillion rubles. To cover the deficit, we must either spend the accumulated, or to borrow, says Lebedinskaya. Budget Code borrowing limits: no more than 1% of GDP. To cover the deficit in 2009 could leave half of the reserve fund - 1.7 trillion rubles. Concludes Lebedinskaya.