In the first half of the ruble could strengthen to 26 rubles per dollar - an expert comment

"The Russian currency on the results of last week played in the U.S. dollar has lost 0,23% and 0,47% against the euro due to the prevailing situation on the Forex, where the U.S. currency has suffered a weekly loss against the euro order 0 88% "- commented Bank.ru Anton Zakharov, analyst at PSB." Against this background, despite high oil prices, the value of the currency basket has risen by 0.16%, due to the uneven ratio of exchange to calculate the index "baskets" namely 0.45 euros and 0.55 U.S. dollar. We note that today, November 9, after the Central Bank lowered the BID (purchase price, - Ed.) On the basket at the usual 5 kopecks. (35.25 rub.), Its value immediately rushed below this level. From the basic data on U.S. states housekeeper is to provide unemployment rates and indicators of consumer lending in the country. From the report of the Ministry of Labor has learned that the unemployment rate for October 2009 was a record for the past 26 years, 10.2% of the total working population. Against this backdrop falls and the purchasing power of the population: people - simply do not want to spend the savings, because of what we are seeing a fall in demand and production, which affects the whole economy. With regard to consumer credit, then its volume was reduced to the lowest level since 1944, or by 4,8% compared to last year. This once again indicates that the population is afraid to borrow, and banks, despite the liquidity provided to them unwilling to lend, which in turn is an inhibitory factor for the development of the economy. First, these data market reacted to buy U.S. dollars as "flight to quality". But then, these data, market participants interpreted as a hint that the U.S. regulators for a long time will adhere to the practice of "zero" interest rates that impact on the future behavior of the U.S. dollar, which is due to the difference in interest rates around the world used to carry the strategy fondiruyuschey trade currency (the players are selling "cheap" dollars to buy the more expensive assets denominated in other currencies, thereby opening more and more short positions on the "American"). We believe that the current situation will persist until the banks start to actively finance the real sector, and until steps are taken by governments of countries to regulate cash flow, limiting speculation on the stock and commodity markets, which in turn lead to an unjustified increase in the cost of resources . Otherwise, in the first half we might be able to see new highs for the EUR / USD pair down to 1.6, which, respectively, affect the growth of the cost of oil prices, which are now supported speculative. In this situation, the ruble, we can see in the first half of a couple of the ruble / dollar at 26 rubles. Nevertheless, in recent days more and more rumors that many regulators are trying to develop a package of measures to limit speculation in the markets. If such measures will be taken, then we can watch the end of a semester in 2010, along with a possible increase in interest rates FRS pair EURUSD at 1.35 levels. Against this background, with a possible drop in oil prices to $ 55 per barrel. The Russian currency is devalued by 20% from current levels, "- said the expert. At 16:59 MSK on the UTS MICEX dollar fell to 28.8066 rubles (-0.1765), the euro, by contrast, rose to 43.1279 rubles (0.0152). CBR exchange rate on November 10: USD 28,8497 rubles (-0,1659), EUR 43,1476 rubles (-0,0102).