There's a bit of money, in banks or currency of the "burn" from inflation. Should I buy shares now? They have fallen to historic lows and have nowhere to fall further. What about "no place to fall further," we have heard more than once. I shine in the night an example of acquaintances who bought Norilsk Nickel for 5000 rubles per share, because "nowhere to fall further," that sold for 3500, then bought in 3000 and sold at 1800. Maybe they still somehow it will buy. A simple example: Suppose you buy shares. Buy for Dollars - and the ruble will weaken against foreign currencies. And his win in the stock market, even if it will, you lose due to the weakening of the ruble. Therefore, if already invest in stocks, the currency - the appropriate scheme for this seems to be there, but we must understand that a quick win you do not get. This is an investment for years. And finally, the important thing: do not try to throw good money after bad. Actually, the penultimate too. Criterion should be simple: imagine that you and your family need to live a year without having any source of current income. No pay, no break-in - nothing. Of course, lived modestly and without extravagance, but still live. Multiply the required amount by 30% - is the possibility of inflation. The amount received - your emergency supply kits. All over it can be invested - given of course that you can spare just in case of loss of income, but not on other versions of "black day" for example, the need for health care costs, which, if anything, have snatches of current consumption. If you want to protect yourself from this side, "emergency supply" should be more. Should you buy in store imported goods - because after the devaluation, they will be far less accessible. It is logical, but I'm here just stopped to clean the shoes with cream, purchased between default and devaluation in August 1998. Of course, save money - but very funny. Therefore, the only sensible way to buy imported goods, it is absolutely necessary. For women - strip. For ill people - drugs, and in places where not exactly have the counterfeit, and with the deadline date. Other purchases of this kind are, I think, will be insuring. Do I need to do well stored reserves of essential goods - soap, salt, sugar, matches, cereals, pasta? Not yet. If you live in a big city with the normal trading system, do not have to - the crisis has not yet reached such a pitch. Speak as someone whose family did not buy matches until 1994, and soap before 1992, and which still stands half-box of vodka received coupons in the late 80's. Drinking it is no longer possible, because for so many years of vodka starts to react chemically with the glass bottle, and I'm very sorry, though I did not love. Do stocks, but it turned out waste: what's good? But if you live in the countryside or urban-type settlement, which has three stores on all occasions or more of the smaller small reserve to be created. After all, the owners of these shops may fail - for example, "burn" the bank where they keep the money - and for some, even a short time you find yourself without a shop. The wife does not want to understand what it's like you put it, "time saving". Says I have a good paying job crisis will not affect us. Maybe she's right? Maybe. If the crisis will not affect your work - law, except that you just touch the rise in prices. For all in Moscow, for example, from January 1, the average growth rate at 29%. And given that a significant portion of payments begin to demand to carry out through authorized banks, with one or two branches of the city (and when payment by other banks, even Sberbank, will be charged a 3% commission) - and all 32%. Still, explain to your wife - just in case - we do not know the depth and duration of depression, which includes. True, we do not know. Nobody knows, because humanity has not yet faced with such crises, and our country does not yet know what he is her lead. With other crises - yes, experienced, but they were different. And second: we are now experiencing problems because of the first wave of contraction in demand caused by the fall of the loan. Its consequences are far from being eradicated, but we still have at least two waves of contraction in demand - due to reduced export earnings and, then, government spending. It is unknown how they will hit on your work. Maybe nothing, but usually a significant contraction in demand is reflected in all segments of the economy, albeit belatedly. Intimidate his family - the last thing. They do not need to know of what they can not influence, but they need to live with you one life to the extent possible and will not create them unnecessary anxiety. Family should be protected, but you can not shield from all the bad things in your life - because then it is not quite a family. And then, in that they can influence - for example, the level of expenditure - they should be properly understood. You can not intimidate, but one can not cheat, even the best intentions - it's too similar to the mistrust. And about the crisis - explain the situation to his wife. Let her understand that it's not you, not only in your work. Changing all the world order - and save on the best dress to a critical time to have an ace up his sleeve. Of course, before you call your wife to save on the dress, you should lead by example, saving money on clothes or on their other significant costs. Otherwise, your words will have no weight - you can not prove that they themselves take them seriously. Completes a summer residence. Money is not enough, before the crisis came to sell the collectible porcelain, which was kept in the family for several generations, but now thinking whether to do it. Maybe save it as a savings "for a rainy day? Whatever the crisis - think about it. Several generations of your ancestors kept this porcelain. Very fragile, if I understand correctly, but they saved it. At least in the war - I think they were told that it was and how at that time people lived. And yet, it did not sell a sack of flour or potatoes. And you are going to sell it on a flat surface, before any crisis - to finish the holiday cottage. You are fully confident that right? Do you think your parents and grandparents did not have more weight than you have now, the temptations to part with things, mindful of their parents and absorbed part of their soul? You think, then they were wrong, and you now want to do everything right, you want to correct their mistake? I can not judge whether you need a cottage. Can be very necessary, but since you asked this question yourself, I think that this is not a matter of life and death. And if so, I think you should think about as to whether the price you would finish the cottage. Yes, throw it halfway seriously, and all we have now will be less likely to burn-in. But this question is primarily moral and only later already commercial. If we look only from a commercial point of view, it all depends on the strength of your financial situation. If you are absolutely confident in the reliability of current income and if you have an "emergency supply", which I mentioned above - no problem, you can invest in stocks. True, during the crisis, antiques falls in price, because people who got into difficult circumstances, begin to sell the last - and to buy trinkets, accordingly, cease. Therefore, if you want to sell, sell now. But before embarking on commercial issues, answer all the same first to the moral - to himself. I watch television, and there is almost nothing about our crisis is not. Presidents Putin and Medvedev are calm, they say, it's all in the West, but we still have everything in order. Surrounding the crisis has not touched, everything works fine, and savings in general, and so was not. Is it worth it to strain the ordinary people - in fact really crisis hits only for speculators. Well, maybe in Moscow hit, once there you have a lot of speculation, and the normal of his city and did not feel it. What do you think? In 1998, after a default, the regions also gloated over Moscow and speculators. Two weeks - and then a wave of the crisis and has faced them. And now. In the market for a third blow in a domain. "Blow out" - which means "destroyed" because they could not recover after that. In Russia, production yet abandon expansion plans: cast construction with a willingness to even 90%, spread hired and trained workers, sometimes shortened work week. But we all need to understand that this is only the beginning. I really do not like speculators, even law-abiding - equity, currency and others. They often create the preconditions for crises, but the horror of that attack not limited to, the whole economy gets hit, including the real sector, including people who are absolutely innocent, not having anything to do with speculation. As for people saying "nothing wrong" and, moreover, accuse those who try to honestly describe the situation, almost in espionage - God be their judge. Many of them are sincere in their ignorance, many feel that the escape from trouble by simply not speaking about it - well, some are lying to us consciously. This ostrich policy, and you can join it, if only responsible for yourself. If you are on a family or even elderly parents - you are responsible for them, and you should be careful, because your error will hit innocent people. I would be happy to make a mistake, but my institute since its inception - in 1996, 12 years - examines this particular crisis. We did them at the stage of its inception. It can not be prevented, and we have seen how gradually the clouds are gathering. And I'm afraid that now everything seriously. People who do not remember the 1991, 1994, 1995 and even 1998, not to mention reliable secure wealth or status of all misfortunes, tend to ignore the danger. But ordinary people - like you and me - no oil wells, no foreign assets, and even simply being able to take bribes. And usually even and there is no such desire. And we are vulnerable to the crisis, and therefore we must be careful, and in the crisis - at least economical. Our ancestors lived through and overcame all of it because they were careful not to believe too superficial and irresponsible people. I think they give us a good example - to the same time-tested. Answers first published December 23, 2008.
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