Loans with floating rates - rather risky for the borrower

The Russian authorities are again reminded of the mortgage. Recently, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that this year the percentage of mortgage loans is expected to decline to 11%, and eventually even up to 5-6%. The experts of the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (HMLA) promise that the volume of mortgage loans in 2010 will grow at least twice. The extent to which these forecasts are optimistic about the real situation in mortgage lending, we were asked to tell Sergey Kostyukov, deputy head of retail banking business "open." How do you assess the current situation in the mortgage market? Mortgage market is now still not fully grown, and before the release of at least pre-crisis level is still far. It is worth noting that the majority of mortgage loans offered by state agencies. According to forecasts of the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending, total mortgage lending in Russia in 2010 will double to 280-320 billion rubles. You agree with him? How do you assess the prospects for mortgage market development in Russia? Large growth expected this year is not necessary. Development of the mortgage, as expected, may encourage the presence of maternal capital. Over the past three years, the maternity capital received about 1.5 million people and 66 thousand of that number last year, used it to pay off mortgages, spending is 18 billion rubles. from the budget. In the current year, capital will be about 300 thousand Russian families. Do you think that by year-end average rate may drop to 11%? It may be noted that the process is smooth to reduce mortgage rates began in September last year. Pre-crisis levels, they, however, not reached. In December, the average rate on mortgages was 14.4% (for loans in rubles) and 13% (currency). Most likely, up to 10-11% will bring the mortgage loans unless banks with state participation, and then to a level you can expect lower rates only to the secondary housing market. What problems are now on the Russian mortgage market? In mortgages in Russia does have some problems that were not resolved even in the crisis. For example, many banks now have to move to grant loans at floating rates: the refinancing will be added to the margin of the bank. But the policy of low rates is not durable: inflation in Russia is hampered by lack of demand rather than competition, as in most developed countries. This means that the recession is over - and the refinancing rate again begins to grow. And with it - and loan payments. So - with a floating rate loan is quite risky for the borrower. In reviving the market of housing loans is a side effect - an extra incentive to rise in price of housing. Because the demand is known, no supply growth increases. Experts have noticed that as soon as mortgage programs that came in one region or another, dwelling in it rose in price by 40-60%.