Most NPFov managed to generate quite conservative portfolios until the fall of impact of financial crisis on the stock market. The proportion of shares in the placement of the structure of pension reserves all funds decreased by the end of a semester from 45% to 35%, while placing retirement savings - from 27 to 18%. The rest - in bonds, bank instruments, as well as the equal footing of mutual funds are generally conservative. Table 1. Structure of pension reserves NPF by type of asset type of the asset share at 01.01.2008, in% share of 01.07.2008, in% Cash at bank accounts 1.31 2.18 Bank deposits and certificates of deposits of Russian banks 7.83 10.34 Public securities of the Russian Federation 2.88 2.14 Municipal Securities 0.71 0.62 Bonds of Russian business entities 12.08 22.82 Equity 45.22 35.45 Russian JSC Mortgage Securities 0.00 0.06 units of unit investment Real estate funds 18.25 19.30 0.13 0.11 7.70 Other areas of placement notes 4.47 3.31 2.06 securities of foreign governments and organizations 0.18 0.00 Source: Rating Agency Expert RA . Table 2. The structure of the retirement savings of APF by type of assets. An asset share on 01.01.2008, in% share of 01.07.2008, in% Cash balances at credit institutions 6.22 5.76 Cash in bank deposits 1.03 10.18 Government securities of the Russian Federation 5.64 1.96 Government securities of the Russian Federation 18.84 14.64 bonds of Russian issuers 38.15 45.41 shares of Russian issuers 27.26 18.29 Shares (stocks, shares) foreign index funds 0,00 0,00 Mortgage securities 0.00 0.00 Other assets 2.85 3.76 Source: Rating Agency "Expert RA". Structural changes have allowed funds to show the results of half-decent results despite the fact that the decrease in quotations on the Russian stock market began in the spring: the average yield from the placement of pension reserves was 4.49% (standard deviation of 7.57 percentage points). Although the average return from the placement of pension funds in the first half of 2008 was negative (-0.67% with a standard deviation of 6.12 percentage points), 16 out of 37 funds, which we have examined, showed a positive result. Assuming that the RTS index as of 01.07.08 are not significantly different from the value at the beginning of the year (2,242.74 and 2,296.56, respectively), the yield was probably shown through dividends and coupon payments on bonds, as well as due to increase in value of units CUIT-selling of pension funds. The main losses of APF by the end of the year will occur from the collapse of stock price, which will have a strong impact despite their relatively small weight in the Investment Portfolio Funds. According to our estimate the average yield from the placement of pension reserves at year-end range from -10 to -15%, and from the placement of pension funds from -2.5 to -5%, respectively. (Although the results showed the worst half of funds yield on GPT than on the DPO, pension funds are placed in more conservative instruments, and therefore less affected by the fall in equity prices in the stock market). However, we must understand that any such estimates are rather relative, as long as it is unclear how effective will the anti-crisis measures of the Government, the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance. We also note that companies may follow the example of the RPF and to extend the contracts with management companies for another year so that they can not fix the damage and wait for more favorable market conditions. In addition, it is possible that this year's funds will not overestimate the portfolio in 2008, so the results at the end of the year will be less bleak. The current crisis is likely to virtually no impact on the welfare of future pensioners, since the time of payment of basic pension economy is likely to have time to recover from the crisis and to win back losses. Partly offset the negative impact of the crisis will help supply the funds accumulated funds in the past few years the market growth. Over the past three years, most of the funds shows the results of higher inflation, with an average yield above the average inflation rate at 1,5-2,4 percentage points. Although the system currently covers several million people (approximately 3.6 million persons insured under the mandatory pension insurance (OPS), and 6.75 million members of the NGO), now retired gets only about 16% of the participants of the NGO. And the timing of payment of pensions to OPS will come only after 2020, when will retire citizens born after 1967 - only they have the right to the funded part of labor pensions. Table 3. Average yield of APF in 2005-2007 godah1. Yield DPO OPS share Number of funds from those of APF in terms of pension reserve funds Number of Percentage of NPF considered in terms of retirement savings above average 21 70% 11 68% unweighted average 12.98% 12.16% above inflation, but below average 14 20% 7 28% of the average inflation rate 10.59% below the inflation rate on Oct. 15% 6 4% Source: Rating agency "Expert RA". State can and should participate in the development of the market. Priorities - in the promotion of co-financing, as well as in expanding affordable investment declaration of assets by the real estate market instruments, as well as infrastructure bonds. The system of public co-financing non-state pension in effect guarantees citizens the 100% return on their retirement savings that are virtually guaranteed to help overcome and inflation, and the local stock market dips. Therefore, for the development of NGOs is vital to convey this information to the public and actively promote the idea of ??non-state pension. Currently, the market lacks long assets available for investment. Potential funding from pension funds should be used for the development of market infrastructure bonds, as well as the tools of real estate market in the first place - REIT. Review prepared by the rating agency "Expert RA" in the study of reliability of private pension funds, conducted jointly with NP NAPF. Information is provided 50 funds-NAPF members, which share as of 01.07.2008 accounted for 89% of the volume of pension reserves and 86,3% of the volume of pension savings of NPF. 1If calculations, we used information on 50 funds involved in additional pension benefits, and 24 funds, licensed by OPS.
No comments:
Post a Comment