Experts believe that before the crisis led to the price marathon inadequate mortgage. In recent years, not only professional real estate market, but also the general public, accustomed to the thesis that the development of mortgage promotes growth in property prices. The logic here is extremely simple: lending money to stimulate effective demand and growth in consumer activity allows sellers to raise prices. For this reason, many builders and realtors are actively seeking to develop cooperation with banks, as many experts assert that once the mortgage lending recovers from the crisis, the cost per square meter will go up again. But now the analytical center "Indicators of housing market" thinks is right to push the opposite result: in the current economic conditions, the mortgage will not push prices up, but instead constrain their growth. And for what reasons. Before the crisis, pushing up prices is not so much the mortgage, as such, as its inadequate liberalization. Initial payment of 30% has fallen to zero, credit terms of 10 years grew to 40-50 years, and to reaffirm their solvency could be almost on his word - refer to the free-form often with the "left" the place of work or Jacobian would be "undermining". All this has gone too far from classic, sensible mortgages, implying minimal risks for both the bank and the borrower. Namely: when the initial payment of 30% (ideally) or at least 20%, the loan term is less than 20-30 years, which is correlated with age and health of the borrower, but also, very importantly, there is a qualitative test of solvency of the borrower. The distribution of elephants Before the crisis, mortgage programs have gradually become just insane, say experts think tank "Real Estate Market Indicators." In particular, the size of the down payment is often all fell to zero. That is, for loans to handle people who have not accumulated even a penny. It's one thing when a person already has accumulated a certain amount that he brings, thus confirming the ability to earn in the future the rest. Another - when a potential borrower is only making plans, and real savings, as well as revenue to save money, no. It is important not only that there is an initial payment, but also its value. Suppose a person has $ 100,000, and banks determine the minimum initial contribution of 30%. Such a person can afford apartment for $ 333,000. But if the bank is ready to be satisfied with an initial contribution of 10%, the borrower starts qualify for housing valued at $ 1 million, and this - the first step in a sharp rise in property prices, as buyers begin to operate suddenly much higher budgets are not due to an increase their real income or savings, but only by reducing the "entry ticket". Sellers in these signals respond uniquely, changing price tags upward. Inadequately grown and credit terms. Since the initial ten years (which, perhaps, really was not enough), they increased to 30-40 years, and even started talking about 50 years or more, which obviously exceeds the period of potentially possible health of people. However, the most superficial approach was to assess the client's solvency. In fact, such a lax mortgage, resembles a mindless distribution of money for prizes for the volume of loans, and pushing up property prices. As soon as the banks are once again simplified the conditions for granting loans to people who only yesterday was not enough money for an apartment, now suddenly beginning to miss. They came out with the money market, created a stir, which will inevitably push prices up. So in late 2006, when former house price growth has stopped, and the onset of stagnation in 2007, experts of the analytical center "Indicators of the real estate market" have tried to understand why the cost per square meter apartment in the capital stopped it at around $ 4.000. It turned out that at that point prices for apartments in Moscow proved to be unfeasible for the bulk of the middle class with incomes about $ 2.000 per month per person based on then existing conditions of the mortgage. That is, housing was more expensive than the budget, which could borrow most of the people. And the market has stopped. However, little time has passed, and a number of banks to further simplify the conditions for granting loans, has become even more loyal to the borrower to look at the package of documents, reduce the size of the initial fee and increased the term loan. It was then, in 2007, there was a mortgage with zero down payment. Again, people were able to enter the market with borrowed money, which caused a new wave of house inflation in late 2007 - the first half of 2008. That is, in effect, pushing up the market is not a mortgage, as such, and its inadequate liberalization. And what has the general issue of sub-prime loans to buy real estate in the U.S., already knew the whole world. Moreover, as these loans are now paying half of the world. What did the crisis or the inadequacy of intelligence crisis sobered and banks and people. It is unlikely that now banks, developing mortgage programs that will approach the issue of loans as superficial and frivolous, as it was before the crisis. Rather, now policy of banks in mortgage lending will be much tougher, more cautious and circumspect. On the other hand, borrowers who in the crisis experienced all the vicissitudes of fate and assess the severity of the regular mortgage payments in the fall of revenues, showed everyone else that should not rush to go into debt on any terms. Before the crisis, incomes, many are constantly growing, and it seemed important to buy an apartment, and then somehow burst into tears. The recent crisis has taught and potential borrowers to be careful. " It is unlikely that people will now take out loans without sufficient income, that is at full capacity. In normal conditions, low-risk mortgages, its influence on the market is the opposite. It is not hard to calculate, using the mortgage calculator, when given a real proven monthly income of the borrower, recorded a reasonable down payment and loan term, the budget and buy an apartment, for which a borrower is eligible, is clearly marked. And even the interest rate affects it is unimportant, as www.irn.ru written before the crisis in the article "The main criterion is the availability of mortgage." Approximate order of the required amounts is easy to imagine. A classic example of metropolitan middle class: a family of three persons, two workers with a total monthly income of 100 000-120 000 rub. can afford to pay on a loan of about 50,000 rubles. per month. Based on the "classic" mortgage terms: 30% initial payment, the rate of 12% per annum, term - 20 years, this family can afford a typical two-bedroom apartment for about 6,5 million rubles. (Then the monthly payment is exactly in the order of 50 000 rubles. Per month). And if prices for apartments in Moscow will be much higher then the bulk of the real buyers will be cut off from the market, and it creates a strong case for price correction downwards. Marketing and pricing in real estate turns out that a reasonable mortgage meaningful parameters contributes no growth in property prices, but instead restrict it. What is 6.5 million for a typical two-room apartment in Moscow? The secondary housing market area average model "kopeck piece" is about 54 meters, that is, the price corresponds to about 120 thousand rubles per square meter. If you look at the ruble exchange rate of one square meter at www.metrinfo.ru, it clearly shows that up to about this level, and prices fell after the crisis, "hooked" for him. As the recovery situation in recent months they have grown slightly to about 140 thousand rubles, but with the beginning of summer, the cost of housing was again sliding down in rubles and in dollars. Hence, for a higher price meter enough support from consumers pay the market has not experienced. And it is quite natural to assume that during the summer the average price level could well slide back closer to 120 thousand rubles per square meter. Let us now look at buildings in Moscow. Here, the average area of ??the apartment for more and is about 70-80 meters, which leads us to the price meter 80-90 thousand rubles. Many will recall that the sale of new buildings after the crisis at the lowest prices began to 68-70 rubles per meter, but at the stage of excavation. In 2009, she quickly grew up just up to 80-90 thousand rubles for individual projects up to 100 thousand As noted in the article "Deficit apartments there is a lack of affordable housing, it is at that price apartments in new buildings are selling well in several new residential complexes. A New Business Class at prices ranging from 130-150 thousand rubles per meter apart is extremely sluggish - there we have the unit sales. As repeatedly noted www.irn.ru, housing costs should be correlated with incomes and levels of ability to pay the real demand. Massive investment purchases are gone and now the market determine the people aimed to buy an apartment for himself. This means that real estate prices may rise for two reasons. Either this is in line with income growth, population, that is, in fact we can speak about growth at the level of inflation. This growth is quite possible to predict the medium term. Or, a new wave of aggressive price hike could trigger panic return to be inadequate, lax mortgage. However, experts think tank www.irn.ru believe that now this is unlikely - the crisis learned a lot from both banks and borrowers. In world practice there are even examples of limiting the volume of mortgages, particularly in China, as described in the article "On the Chinese real estate market has formed a bubble." One of the last steps - the Chinese authorities have restricted the total amount issued by banks in mortgage loans this year, quarterly and reducing their volume. But even if the volume of mortgages in Russia will grow, but the mortgage will be meaningful, but not reckless, it will promote more growth in the volume of construction, rather than higher prices.
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