"In 1998, a populist budget crisis" question: Is it possible to compare the current situation with the economic crisis of 1998? Answer: Then there was a populist budget crisis, which in the XX century there were dozens. Now we have a big global slowdown, cyclical and structural at the same time, reminiscent of the Great Depression of 1930. With the intellectual point of view it is very difficult and very interesting. Arises, of course, the question of stability of government institutions. Highly developed at that time, Germany in 1930 slipped to Nazism, and Argentina - to Peronism. But this is the problem of adaptability of political and economic institutions of the state. The U.S. and UK institutions are very flexible and adapt to everything. Q: So what do you advise the government? about: It is itself knows that the key now is to diversify the economy and structural reforms. I do not know if I can upgrade, but the chance for her in times of crisis is definitely more. Plus the stimulation of investment activity, anti-monopoly. And it is very important not to fall into the trap of populism. Say, Argentina, which at the beginning of XX century are among the ten most developed countries, in combating crisis in the 1930's tried to learn from the Soviet experience, and drove myself into a trap from which it could not get out. Q: Why now, nobody is trying to reform the economy, although they would be eased out of the crisis? about: Why do we have the police shoot at civilians? Reforms in the economy - an issue long, long-term work. Enhancing transparency in decision-making and implementation, strengthening of public control are important non-economic factors in the implementation of successful economic reforms. Anyway, in a modern developed society. We'll have to go this route. In: How fast-growing economies of Asia, where economic reforms were carried out very quickly? about: Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, answering the same question, said that he knows how to act in a country populated by 4 million Chinese. But how to do the same reforms in the country with a population of 140 million people, it is difficult to say. "I do wonder, will anyone ask for forgiveness from the Minister of Finance" Q: Many businessmen complain that they now have no incentive to return capital to the country. It is much easier to invest somewhere abroad. A: We were in a situation of "declining productivity" of economic legislation. Economic reform processes and are critical now of the political and legal systems, the ability of States to ensure implementation of legislation. If tax authorities can squeeze you out of business, then what value is the value of the tax rate? This quality of law enforcement institutions is one of the three main problems of the Russian economy. The other two - a monopoly and high inflation. That together they severely limit the ability of crisis management. in: So while oil prices were high, business was seen as "rules of the game uncomfortable, but they were reconciled, and now not? about: terms of doing business has always been difficult, but the incentives to deal with them was not. Why do something if and so has everything? Immediately dealt a powerful chorus of voices that oil nirvana - is forever. And so every time. When the Soviet leaders in 1970 talked about the possible collapse of oil prices, they also answered: Is the machine will then be refilled soda? But the Soviet leadership has at least an apology is that oil prices on their memory never really fell. But now that everyone knew. I do wonder: Will anyone ask for forgiveness from our Finance Minister? During that summer of 2008 demanded of him tumultuous waste of money? Imagine how we would fall if there were no reserve funds. Q: Many economists, by contrast, is accused of Alexei Kudrin in undue "with money" and retention of high-stakes ... about: money in the economy is never enough. A higher interest rate keeps the Central Bank. In general, the rate should be at the level of inflation or higher. That is politics, this is correct. While the Minister of Finance for the policies of the Central Bank does not respond. You can certainly omit the U.S. Securities and below 5%, but now it will amount to lose control over inflation and destroy the economy. In this case, foreign exchange transactions will become more profitable - all go into the currency and will wait for the devaluation, which would be inevitable. The examples are not far to seek. We in 1992-93, interest rates were many times lower than inflation. If people say otherwise, they are simply incompetent. Although I admit that since the experts can argue that are sold to banks that would like to again cash in on the devaluation of the ruble. Q: Do you agree with the view that the trend of inflation is now broke and now it will just fall? A: This is a difficult question, it all depends on the budget deficit. If it is essential that a large reduction in inflationary pressures should be expected. And while all indications are that the deficit will be even grow. "The problem with falling demand worldwide," in: The second wave of the crisis will be? A: See that underneath it to understand. Probably, we entered a long period of low (compared to the previous decade) and the unsustainable rate of growth. There are new problems in the banking system, the probability of default on corporate bonds. In this case, the problem is not even the availability of money and lack of demand for products, which is why companies have falling sales. Debt payments until transferred to the future, and loans, respectively, are reported as "good." But to infinity can not continue. And the question is, will recover to the point whether the level of effective demand. While we do not understand what could be a source of recovery in demand. In 1998, Russia began to grow in the wake of the global boom. Now that demand is not for anyone. And where it appears - is unclear. The American administration is trying to fill in bailout money to spur recovery in consumer demand. But it will result in an increase in demand or inflation will rise only with the subsequent erosion of U.S. debt - is unclear. Although a high probability it can be argued that the new pay rise just holders of dollars around the world. By the way, very similar crisis began in the first half of 1990 in Japan. Over the past 15 years in the world with a short break was an economic boom. But the Japanese economy has not been able to recover - all the while she continues to stagnate. And if the source of recovery in consumer demand can not be found, then the whole world is in danger of sliding into "Japanese" situation. In: Now the bubble inflated by the stock markets and oil. That is dollar inflation has already begun? A: Not in the United States prices are rising and even falling. But an economic recovery can begin only after the resumption of growth in consumer prices in the U.S. it will mean the resumption of growth in household spending. But it will be dangerous if the inflation rate will start to grow uncontrollably. This is - one of the major future threats. "While most politicians and economists do not even realize that the model would have to completely change the" To: So when the crisis ends? about: Anyone who says he knows the answer - a charlatan. I can even offer you such utter economic horror story. Modern economic growth began 300 years ago, at the end of XVII century, is not quite clear reasons. One version - a revolution in prices that has ruined the Spanish economy. At that time, the conquerors began to bring tons of gold from America and made Spain the richest country in Europe. As a result, fly to the Spanish is much easier than anything to make yourself. Incidentally, this is very reminiscent of the recent boom in oil prices. Therefore, the whole world to develop the economy in Spanish money, and the Spaniards only flooded the world with gold. As a result of Spain for almost 400 years, was on the margins of global development. Another important factor - the legal protection of private property rights in Europe. Universal suffrage was not so important, so it appears only at the beginning of XX century. And here is an opportunity to deprive the property only by court decision played an invaluable role in the rapid development of economy. It allows people to accumulate wealth from generation to generation. Q: If a global crisis and in fact similar to the Japanese, then do not wait for a few years and we are stagnant, and then an even deeper decline? about: Seriously nobody knows. On the one hand, the struggle with the crisis until reduced to stimulate consumption. On the other hand, everyone understands that no good will come until the level of spending of American households will not reflect the real capabilities of the U.S. economy. Here's a dilemma: Americans need to consume more to start out of the crisis, but they should consume less, so growth has been steady. We live in an amazing time. This crisis is similar to the Great Depression of the 1930's stagflation, or 1970 - not the depth of the fall, but a completely new turn in the economy. It's a real intellectual challenge. And note, the first four years in 1930 and about six in the 1970 government struggled with crises, "turning back" - as they solve problems in the economy of the previous half century. The first reaction - nothing will resolve itself. Second - to act as before. Only then comes the understanding that it is necessary to find something new. And while we are at a stage of crisis, when fighting with him, turning back. "Today, you write a program and someone criticizes her. Tomorrow, on the contrary" in: Part time you head of the Expert Council under the Government Commission on Sustainable Development of the Russian economy under the chairmanship of First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. How does the council? A: The main directions of the Board of two. This analysis of submissions to the panel. And development of those stories that seem important to our experts. With them, we informally discuss the topic which seems to be most important in the coming months. Then the fun of it we are discussing with Igor Shuvalov. Topics he has not appointed, but his opinion is always taken into account. In: Your comments into account? A: Usually, yes. You see, the economic expert society in our country professionally and, more recently, in my opinion, sufficiently consolidated. Today, you write a program and someone criticizes her. Tomorrow, on the contrary. Another thing is that, as a developer of document you think somewhat differently than being a free thinker. The scientist, who became director of the ministerial departments, is forced to anticipate how it will be written to implement. While the independent expert should not wrestle, as he then report to the minister, and therefore the flight of his thoughts less restricted.
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