Ruble depreciates on Fridays

The course of Russia's currency relative to the upper boundary value of the currency basket, which consists of 0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros, in trading on Friday declined by about 1% to 31.6 rubles. This means that the central bank once again extended the corridor of its possible values, continuing to devalue the ruble softly. The last time the bank changed the boundaries of the technical corridor just seven days ago, on November 28. According to the chief economist of the investment company Troika Dialog Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, while the power is not ready to go for a serious correction of the exchange rate. He believes that if the central bank let the ruble float freely, stopping the print fiat money disaster will not happen: after the initial correction of 10-20 per cent of the ruble will be strengthened, but the exchange rate formation mechanism will not be so dependent on the regulator. Experts of the Merrill Lynch predicts that by the end of 2009 the maximum value of the currency basket could increase to 34.45 rubles. This means the weakening of Russia's currency by about 10% compared to the current figure. The determining factor in this process, analysts say, will be oil prices. While at Merrill Lynch expects that in 2009 a barrel will cost on average $ 50, but did not rule out that the forecast could be revised to $ 25 if the recession spreads to China. But this is just one of many possible scenarios. Oil may reach up to ten dollars, and may return to 100 or even 200, I'm sure the analyst of investment group UniCredit Aton Artem Konchin, so that the projections do is meaningless. The observed market volatility is not beneficial neither miners nor the refiners or consumers, he says, it shows not only the fundamental valuation of raw materials, how much impact the global crisis. "Until we see improvement projections for energy consumption in the world, we will not see positive momentum," - says the analyst. Now the pressure on the Russian currency has not only a reduction in export earnings from energy supply, but also the behavior of citizens concerned about the devaluation of the ruble. According to the Bank, in the November general population's demand for foreign currency has increased compared with October, nearly 90%, amounting to about $ 17 billion. Thus, the demand for cash currency for the month set a record last 12 years, surpassing the highs of 2006 and 2007 in 2,5 times. If the population is satisfied that the sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate does not occur, the demand for foreign exchange can go on the wane, says senior vice president of the Association of Regional Banks, the former deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexander Khandruyev. At the same time, he admits that after the devaluation expectations formed, to change something very difficult. However, the new exchange rate policy of the Central Bank has already yielded some fruit. From 21 to November 28, gold reserves of the country for the first time over the last two months increased - by $ 5 billion, or about 1%.