Russian ruble loses

This figure includes all cash (including balances in vaults of credit institutions) as well as funds deposited in the Bank of Russia on correspondent accounts, deposits and mandatory reserves of credit institutions, plus the Bank of Russia bonds in banks. Losses since the beginning of the year already exceeds 300 billion rubles. Per month cash fell by 185 billion rubles, the required reserves - to 4 billion The volume of funds in correspondent accounts and deposits with the Central Bank increased, but by a smaller amount: 34,6 billion and 73.4 billion rubles, respectively . The latter circumstance is due to the fact that the banking system went allocated by the state money. However, the figures show that banks are not involved in its direct responsibilities - lending to the economy (actually, the funds allocated to them just for this purpose), but prefer to accumulate reserves and transfer rubles into foreign currency. Just this is the main reason for the reduction of ruble supply. This involved not only banks but also the population. True, it is monetary contraction prepodnosilos Finance Ministry and Central Bank as the main instrument of Russia's "monetary and liberal policy in curbing inflation. It is for this reason, the finance minister Kudrin deduced oil money outside of Russia. Therefore, theoretically, the current reduction in the volume of cash in circulation should lead to a reduction in inflationary pressures. However, this does not happen: prices go up, and do not even think to stop. Analysts believe that this process is mainly related to the tariff policy of the monopolies. Recall: it is expected that prices for electricity and gas will grow by an average of 19% (for the population - 25%). Plus the increase in tariffs for railway transportation (it is not just about the price of passenger tickets - will rise and the cost of transportation, which, in turn, can not affect the price of transported goods). Perhaps the government did agree to reconsider plans to raise tariffs. In particular, the Ministry of Economic Development has proposed to reduce the growth of energy tariffs in the coming year with the planned 19% on the "humane" 5%. In addition, during a meeting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of MDM Bank, and in the past - the head of the Federal Financial Markets Service Oleg Vyugin suggested the government to decisive action, one of which may be the introduction of restrictions on capital transactions. "In the current situation, you can choose from two options for further development: the adjustment of monetary policy and exchange rate policies with the transition to targeted support programs of debt major businesses through banks, and a second output - an attempt to impose restrictions on capital movements," - said Vyugin. Otherwise, we do not expect the best of times. Deficiency of rubles is likely to lead the Central Bank to include the printing press. Coupled with the devaluation of the ruble, rising prices of imports, stopping domestic enterprises will lead to stagflation - a situation in the economy, when the stagnation or decline in production (stagnation), combined with rising unemployment and a continuous rise in prices - inflation. The relationship between money supply and inflation browser KM.RU explains chairman of the board of directors of Eurofinance Mikhail Yuriev: The fact that the very issue (increasing the money supply by printing) can be implemented in different ways. Roughly speaking, we should distinguish between the monetary and credit issue. In the first case, the Central Bank issues new money to purchase foreign currency in the foreign exchange market (in the so-called. Interventions). In the second case, the Central Bank comes up with money when extending loans to other banks. Why does the central bank in both cases, the money comes up, instead of using the reserves - it is a separate issue. This is due to legislation and mechanisms for turnover of the money supply. The fact that any central bank in any country in the world can not keep and not keep their reserves in national currency. For example, the Russian Central Bank can not be stock rubles, as well as the American Federal Reserve - the stock of dollars (as opposed to stocks euros). It is not only pointless, but for some reason can not (I would not like to go into technical details). Feature of our financial system is as follows. In Russia there is practically no credit issue. And because our foreign exchange market as a proportion of GDP has always been large enough (in contrast to the currency market the U.S., because Americans do not buy or sell the euro, simply because they do not need and acquire abroad all over U.S.) and the Central Bank for, restore or maintain the ruble has been actively working on it, it means that the volume of foreign exchange interventions were quite large in proportion to the money supply. For nearly all of 2000's activities CBR for the most part was to purchase foreign currency, rather than selling it (to keep the ruble strengthen too). Accordingly, it was necessary to issue for this rubles. And this issue is completely missing. A credit issue (main issue in America), we simply do not technically exist. This was manifested in the fact that the Central Bank did not give significant volume of loans their own banks. Accordingly, when our Central Bank begins to sell the currency, the ruble weight is reduced. That is it - a purely technical issue. The question arises: can this be avoided? Possible. To this end, the Central Bank should begin to issue credit (if the situation on the foreign exchange market is not reversed). In the present situation it would be very reasonable. This - the classic way to fight inflation. This has yet to do, because this should technically be prepared (before we never did). Feature of the postwar economic model in the world is that every country has always been some one kind of inflation. There are two different inflation (as well as two different essentially two broad money) - Inflation in the consumer sector and inflation in the capital. They are virtually unrelated to each other. In the consumer sector inflation in the U.S. in the last 10 years almost was not. In this case, was blown out of proportion "bubble capital", of which today does not mean just lazy. This is a fantastic growth in oil and other commodities (and stocks). That is it - the inflation in the capital markets. Know-how of the American post-war model (which is now in crisis) is that they were able to separate these two sectors - so that the inflation of the capital sector has not seeped into the consumer. Exactly how this mechanism works before the end no one understood. You can even explain why inflation is largely leaked, but it is unclear why it is generally (!) Does not seep. Situation in Russia today can be called a mirror image of the model. That is, we have a very strong deflation in the capital markets (equities were worth 10 times less, not only on the exchanges, not to mention the raw materials), but in the consumer sector, deflation does not leak. Strict scientific theory which would describe the separation of these two sectors does not exist yet. So no one will not exactly say how to deal with it. Note: You can not say that we do not have deflation. On the contrary, we have - a classic deflation. Those enterprises that have recently blown-up cost on the exchange of 10 billion dollars, now worth $ 1 billion. Is not deflation? Another thing, it is unclear why this deflation is not transferred to the same gasoline market, sausage, etc. While some still passed because the apartment (consumer goods) began to rapidly fall in price. But it makes sense to stipulate that deflation is not transferred to the market of consumer goods of first necessity.