"Stepping into the bottom, he heard a knock on the bottom." The organizers of the roundtable, held at the press center of RIA Novosti news agency, felt that this aphorism by Polish writer Jerzy Letsa could not be more appropriate to describe the public response to the global financial crisis. During the round table in Moscow, discussed various aspects of the financial crisis in Russia. Citing Letsa, president of the Center for Strategic Studies, Mikhail Dmitriev, said that until recently prevailed in Russian society, the belief that the crisis will touch the country only on a tangent, but now the bottom-tapping ", and we should tune in to a serious mood, to prepare for the fact that the peak of the crisis still far away and have to fall. "In a crisis blamed by many factors, but the fact that he so touched Russia, was due to loans, which in large quantities and do not always take a responsible corporate borrowers. A factor that exacerbates the problem for Russia - the fall in oil prices," said Dmitriev. Economist admits that the cost of "black gold" can fall to 30 dollars per barrel, which can lead to Russia's economy, given the extent of its budget comes from sales of raw materials. "Falling oil prices affects the credit ratings and the balance of trade in Russia. This makes it impossible to use many tools in combating the crisis," - said the expert. Experts believe that there are two options for the development of global crisis: the long and short. May fall and that and the other as chosen by lot, but more data favor the first option. European experts, for example, believe that the peak of the crisis can be expected only in 2009. However, "the actions that Russia today is making against the crisis, suggest that the government expects first - short version", - said Mikhail Dmitriev. "In the first scenario, which is favorable for Russia, the crisis ends in the second half of next year. Today, Russia is pouring money crunch. Already declared that to fight the crisis will be allocated 5 trillion rubles - a colossal amount - 20% of Russian GDP - said the economist. - These funds will support anything and everything: the demand, the corporation borrowers. But it is irretrievable loss, but Russia can not afford to spend the reserves at a pace, "- he said. According to Dmitriev, the second scenario, where crisis is prolonged, it becomes increasingly likely. If you focus on it, you have to change tactics and do it now. "If Russia does not replace the short-term tactics to long-term, then spent all the reserves, it will remain unprotected, and the remainder of the crisis will not be able to adjust anything," says the analyst. In the case of the first scenario the Russian economic crisis hardly affected, but the second option under the current tactics threaten serious social consequences. Dmitriev suggested recipe to cope with the protracted crisis, which can be called "organized retreat." He believes that we should selectively provide financial institutions to public assistance or support pledged at the rate of $ 70 per barrel budget lines, and cutting them down to let the ruble against the dollar, but "slowly and smoothly." Also need to reserve money in the federal budget to support the regions. "This is now little to say, but the crisis will cut pay, and yet revenues of regional budgets in the main hold just on taxes. The task of saving the regional budgets will fall naturally to the federal center", - said Dmitriev. Valery Zubov, Deputy of Russian State Duma, said that the negligence of corporate borrowers - this is just a special case of the global causes of the crisis - bloated "financial bubble". This bubble, that is not backed by real sector money globally outperform the global real economy is 12 times. "I believe that the crisis will continue until deflate this" financial bubble "- concluded Zubov. The roundtable was attended by RIA Novosti news agency economists from Kazakhstan. According to them, the crisis hit Kazakhstan much earlier than Russia." As you know, percentage of external borrowing in Kazakhstan was much higher than in Russia, so we felt stronger and had more sub-prime crisis in the U.S.. Today Russia can borrow some methods of dealing with the crisis we have, "- said Deputy Chairman of the Agency for Regulation and Supervision of Financial Market Kuat Kozhakhmetov. Kazakh economists said that during the crisis in Kazakhstan chosen tactic of targeted assistance and support only the systemically important banks. As a result, Kazakhstan is not broke, none of systemically important banks. Special assistance was also provided for the construction sector. In addition, Kazakh economists advised to create a crisis fund assets. According to them, thanks to careful internal economic action was relatively easy to get rid of a difficult situation in Kazakhstan. As to that Kazakhstan is "lightly", its experts, perhaps a little cunning. Thus, of 230 Kazakhstani banks now have only 23. However, economists have found here, and a positive effect - the financial crisis is helping to clear the field of irresponsible players, and eventually to some extent improve the economy. In Russia, over the last 3.5 months to combat the financial crisis the government has spent $ 150 billion. including - from the Stabilization Fund. Despite all the criticism by the creation of this fund, it is undeniable that the "stabilization money occurred on the destination.
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