"In the last month of spring dynamics in the Russian money market was mixed: if the U.S. dollar Russian ruble lost his position, then to the euro at a high volatility slightly strengthened," - says Natalya Bank.ru Yassin, an analyst at GK ALOR . "Trade in the currency market asking in the first place the situation on global currency market. Investors' concerns about the situation in the European region are still at a high level, reducing the currency pair in the district-level 1.21, and further consolidate its vicinity. In addition, the course of trading, according to tradition, influenced by the dynamics of oil prices: investors' risk aversion, as well as the strengthening dollar contributed to the downfall futures for Brent crude oil for more than $ 15 a barrel since early May. The negative momentum in the dollar on the Russian money market and partially offset by the euro in world markets. In my opinion, today the euro is at a critical level. Formed from the support of 1.21 EUR / USD pair was repeatedly observed rebound upwards, connected, in my opinion, with the intervention. On Friday, June 4, 1.21 mark was broken down, paving the way to the bottom of the channel (1,19 - 1,20). However, it is likely foreign exchange intervention in order to return a pair of above 1.21. In my opinion, taking into account the past to reduce currency pair is likely to rebound upwards. Problems of the American economy, which "stewed" significant cash injections, helped weaken the dollar, predicting its collapse as the leading currency. However, now the dollar appears to be stable. In my opinion, a similar situation may be, and the euro. After such a significant drawdown euro may still recover part of your positions, because with time, will likely appear to improve the situation in the European region. However, in the long term the euro still continue to weaken against the U.S. dollar. In my opinion, the recent decision of CBR refinancing rate was expected, therefore, did not cause fluctuations in the money market. Milestones for the Russian ruble continues to be oil prices and the situation on global currency market. On the commodity market is the medium channel, which clearly traded futures on crude oil Brent. However, the strengthening U.S. dollar against the euro did not contribute to the retention of the channel and at the end of May this year, the lower limit could not resist - futures for Brent crude oil in the moment falls below $ 70 a barrel. A further risk to the commodity market is also dynamic currency pair. In case of further reduction of EUR / USD futures for Brent crude oil may fall to a level of $ 65 per barrel, but this event is unlikely, since the value of "black gold" influences their decisions yet, and OPEC. It is worth noting that the range of prices above $ 70 a barrel for comfort for both OPEC and the Russian economy, and therefore the interests of OPEC and Russia on this issue, in my opinion, are the same. Certainly, the problems of the European region are broad, which tends to weaken the euro against the dollar. However, the power of the U.S. dollar is due to the problems of European economies, not the force of the U.S. economy, characterized by a high government debt and high unemployment. The U.S. economy now looks more attractive as Europe's problems are more evident. However, in my opinion, despite the problems, which are now inherent in the global economy, restoring its still noticeable: growing consumer demand, which is the basis for further improvements. In particular, published data on the optimistic GDP growth, also indicating an improving world economy. The situation on the Russian currency market will continue to be determined by external factors as the dynamics of pair EUR / USD and oil prices. Now the currency pair is at a critical level that can not talk about the medium-term trend. However, in my opinion, after such a strong subsidence is still probably acting out of a currency pair of lost positions, which, respectively, to support the domestic market and commodity areas. When these factors may strengthen the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar, but the correlation with the euro will be determined by the scale and pace of reconstruction a couple of rising oil prices, which is possible in improving the situation on the foreign exchange market "- the expert believes. At 16:38 MSK on the UTS MICEX dollar rose to 31.1416 rubles ($ 0.1804), the euro, by contrast, has declined - to 37.8433 rubles (-0.1822).
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