State banks ignore the instructions of the authorities

The rating agency "Expert RA" has undertaken a study of the banking sector in the first half of 2009. The portfolio of loans to non-financial enterprises in the first half of 2009 increased by 2,6% and for 12 months from 01.07.08 to 01.07.2009, the - by 15,3%. This is a good result given the scale of the recession in the real sector (industrial production fell by 14,2%). Efforts by state-owned banks, which, with rare exceptions, to increase the volume of loans, but compensate for contraction of portfolios of most large private and foreign banks: six months portfolios Russian Standard Bank, Alfa Bank, Uralsib Bank collapsed by more than 20%. The December order the government to increase the portfolio by 2% per month, some state-owned banks to work performed in the first quarter of 2009, when he "helped" revaluation of foreign currency loans. And in the second quarter because of rising bad loans average growth rate of the portfolio at the Savings Bank had dropped to 0.4% in VTB - up to minus 0.4%. True, the smaller the GBO and Agricultural Bank managed to maintain average monthly growth above 2% until the end of six months (3,3% and 3,4% respectively). Taking into account the reduction of portfolios for private and foreign banks, the five largest banks (Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Agricultural Bank, Bank of Moscow) increased its share in the assets of 2 percentage points to 48%. "To enhance the credit necessary to create positive expectations regarding future development in at least part of the economy. The change in expectations can provide positive signals with both external markets and reducing the growth of companies focused on domestic demand, - says Irina Veliyev, head of ratings credit institutions, "Expert RA". - But while the market, by contrast, is preparing to further reduce the credit quality of borrowers. According to various estimates, the proportion of bad loans by the end of the year will rise from the current 10-14% to 20-22%, "according to a study by Expert RA , 30 banks out of the top-200 showed losses, yet 38 - the minimum income. The entire banking sector for six months has earned the symbolic 6.8 billion rubles. or 0.02% of assets. The reason - dosozdanie loss reserves, including in the rehabilitation of several major banks. The growth of bad debt at the beginning of 2009 required a recapitalization of banks - and not the point, as has been done, and the system. Meanwhile, one of the mechanisms of systemic recapitalization - subordinated loans VEB - really earned only in the middle of the year, when banks came to the money approved in April 2009 applications. As a result, the largest private banks, finding themselves without a capital base that can cover the losses from writing off bad debts, were forced to cut back sharply on credit portfolios. Recapitalization if it is done in a reasonable time, stop the credit crunch, most private banks, but is unlikely to provide an immediate intensification of credit. However, even slight improvement in the real sector can significantly improve the balance sheets of banks and to create conditions for the growth of loan portfolios at the end of 2009.