Strengthening of the ruble increased popularity of dollar deposits

Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASTF) yesterday published its monthly report: "At the exit from the crisis: financial indicators according to the results in April 2011. The authors note the trend slowing down of growth of bank savings and increase the propensity to consume. However, the growth rate of foreign currency deposits of natural persons, even against the ruble continues to grow. About this newspaper writes "Kommersant" on Wednesday, May 11. Growth rate of deposits in banks steadily declining since the beginning of 2011. Estimated TsMAKP for the first quarter of 2011 deposits of physical persons in banks increased by 2% (3% c exchange revaluation account) against 4.2% growth during the same period of 2010. Partly propensity to save is reduced along with the expectations of sustainable post-crisis economic growth and increased propensity to consume. Agreed with this and other respondents Kommersant economists, but, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, retail turnover in the first quarter of 2011 increased by 4,7%, while real wages - only 0,5%. However, the report's authors believe that the main reason for slowing growth of deposits have become too low interest rates on ruble deposits - an average of three percentage points below inflation. " "People are more interested in investing in real assets - such as real estate, - says Oleg Sun from TsMAKP .- With finances do not know how people can multiply their money." The arguments of Mr. Solntseva indirectly confirmed by the data of the Central Bank, which show a steady increase in demand for loans (including mortgage) of the population. In TsMAKP counted: in the first quarter of 2011 the retail loan portfolio for individuals increased by 3.7% against a decline of 0.9% over the same period in 2010. On the other hand, about 40% of the loan portfolio growth for the company since the beginning of the year secured loan companies building complex and development companies. Meanwhile, a decline in the rate of growth of deposits of physical persons in the ruble exchange rate of growth of deposits continues to accelerate in comparison with the beginning of 2011, reaching 7% in March. In TsMAKP note that it looks strange against the background of strengthening the ruble. And Julia Tseplyaeva of BNP Paribas added: rates in the currency "at less than 3% look even worse than the ruble." The report's authors explain what is happening "changes that have occurred in the" strategy "of currency transactions of the population: if before buying the currency followed the weakening of the ruble, now - for its strengthening (the strategy of" selling the ruble at its peak). To increase financial literacy, according to TsMAKP have pushed the Central Bank's policy aimed at increasing the volatility of the ruble. Tseplyaeva, although considered a strange increase in the rate of growth of dollar deposits, is inclined to agree with TsMAKP: "In Russia about 60% of the population have savings in banks, and this is the most financially literate part of it." With the hypothesis that growth investors do not agree fingramotnosti Dmitry Field of the ING Russia. He explains what is happening or "imbalance in the urgency of foreign currency deposits (deposits rising to 30 days, which can be attributed to the account balances and deposits of over one year) or that are insured in the currency of the risk of inflation. In other words, an explanation of the Field rather say that people are still not confident in the continuation of stable economic growth. While official statistics are really captures the increase in domestic consumption in the stagnation of real wages and the Economy Ministry expects that domestic consumer demand will be the basis of regenerative growth in the second half of 2011. How such growth will be sustainable, given the growing demand for financial assets in the form of additional square meters of housing, is unknown.