Take the dividend: it was your last!

Not long ago a member of the Duma Committee on Financial Markets Pavel Medvedev has publicly expressed the following idea: the fair price of shares can only be determined by the flow of dividends that are paid on it. MP even said that a good idea to oblige the company to send all its net profits for dividends. And the shareholders, they say, let them decide for themselves - to reinvest that money into a company they own or not. The proposal, of course, is too radical, but rational in these words is. Fly per share dividend - one of the long-established investment strategies. And now, when the growth of quotations in the coming months, you can not see that this approach will attract more supporters. Also today, a unique situation: the share price is very low compared to prices in the beginning of the year, but profits for the year - that is, the original basis for dividends - is expected to be comparable with last year's profit, and even exceed it. This means that by buying a share now, you can get a solid dividend yield. Who ordered the share dividends are derived from company profits. Which it will be part of how much money will each share (common and preferred, if there are any) and whether the dividends are paid at all - all pre-determined by the Board of Directors. His views, he makes a general meeting of shareholders: they say that the board of directors recommended shareholders' meeting to decide on the dividend payment in a certain amount. Shareholders' meeting by a majority vote may accept the decision or reject it. Note that the assembly can not decide to pay dividends amounting to more than recommended to the Board of Directors. But in less - easily. For example, the summer of 2005 a general meeting of shareholders of RITEK rejected the recommendation of its Board of Directors to devote part of the net profit for dividend payments. As a result, for 2004, they were not paid at all. But the general practice is as follows: Board of Directors composed of representatives of major shareholders who own and will vote at the meeting. Therefore, what the board of directors recommends, usually made the meeting. Typically, the amount of dividends on preferred shares in one form or another is enshrined in the charter of the company, and often owners of preferred shares "is more than the owners' obychki. This sort of compensation for the fact that preferred shares are not voting, that is, their owners can not influence what is happening in the company. However, there are exceptions: for example, Bank of St. Petersburg in 2006 and 2007 paid in the form of dividends to holders of "preferred shares" only 11% of par value shares. Whereas dividends on ordinary securities accounted for 14% of par. Despite the fact that decisions are taken at a general meeting is actually in favor of the largest shareholders, it does not always mean that the rights of minority shareholders would be harmed. Possible that the owners want to send a large share of the dividends as much as possible. And most likely, minority shareholders will happily accept such a decision. Another option - majoritarian decide to postpone dividend payments, and net profit to invest in business development. From a strategic point of view, this decision is justified: after all, the company's development in the long term will cause the growth of quotations of its shares. By the way, state-run companies a few years ago the Government recommended to send the dividends of at least 20% of net profit. Adhere to these recommendations and Rosneft and VTB. In part, this decision is a populist - it was state-owned companies to raise money for the "people" IPO. On the other hand, the government as majority shareholder also gets quite a decent "share" of such payments. However, many experts believe that in the case of VTB, for example, to send such a large portion of the profits on dividends from a business perspective at least short-sighted. Even less justifiably look such dividends have burdened by high debt to Rosneft. As for the majority of Russian companies, the holders of a clear and predictable dividend policy among them can be counted on the fingers. First come to mind metallurgists - they not only commit to pay dividends, but also pay them a few times a year, which is unheard of generosity. For example, NLMK in 2006 approved a dividend policy. In accordance with its payment factory "can not be less than 20% of net income, determined in accordance with the US GAAP". And more: NLMK promises to strive for the average size of dividend payments in an amount not less than 30% of net profit. But the global financial crisis, it seems, will make adjustments to this beatific picture. Abandon hope about the amount of future dividends to the companies-issuers do not like to talk. In the same NLMK offered us to wait for an appropriate meeting of the board of directors and shareholders, which will be in June 2009. And the press service of Surgutneftegaz explained that any comments regarding the dividend policy will not give, because any statement on this subject can be de be construed as market manipulation. In fact, to more or less predict the size of the payments, you need to know in advance the amount of profit for the year. This question is now cause for concern, but for some businesses (especially raw) - a serious concern. "This year, most issuers will not pay dividends, predicts a senior analyst at Alfa Bank, Angelika Henkel. - Economic situation - falling prices for oil and metal prices, a weakening ruble, a complicated situation with liquidity - contributes to the reduction of forecast profits of most corporations. Dividends may be large in the case of a change of ownership, that is, if the current shareholders will want to go out of business. In recent years, large dividends paid before the IPO. In 2009, it will happen in the case of takeovers, mergers, etc. And, of course, be expected to reduce the dividend yield on in 2009. " History with a record dividend payment of Sibneft before the sale of its Roman Abramovich Gazprom has already made history. Due to declining profits will deteriorate the situation with the dividends of almost all sectors, even generous in past years metallurgy. "Consumption of steel products in the third and fourth quarters dropped dramatically, which greatly hit the company's financial performance. As a result, many companies may deviate from its dividend policy and do not make payments as Nornikel", - states analysts IFD Kapital ". In early December, Norilsk Nickel has lowered production forecasts of non-ferrous metals in 2008 and 2009 and announced a massive program to lower costs, which will include a reduction in investment and the abandonment of an interim dividend for the year 2008, and probably also on the final dividend for 2008. "There will be a big surprise if someone from the" Industry "will pay even a penny more than already paid interim dividend" - sums up the head of management analytical studies of the Criminal Code Uralsib Alexander Golovtsov. Profit from the oil industry ambiguous position of oil companies. On the one hand, $ 40 per barrel - is clearly not the price that they lay in their development plans. On the other - the incomes of the first half, when prices were high, it can hope for more than a decent net profit for the least this year. "The financial results of oil will be very strong due to the first two quarters - says a leading analyst of Financial Bridge" Dmitry Alexandrov. - That is why owners of preferred shares "can count on good cash flow, even if the result of the crisis on" obychkam will be decided dividends do not accrue. " The biggest interest preference shares of Tatneft, and Surgutneftegaz, because the rate of dividend payouts is clearly defined. For example, owners of preferred shares of Tatneft, which now cost about 20 rubles. In accordance with the charter of the company are entitled to an annual dividend of not less than 100% of par value shares (1 rub.). Surgutneftegaz is obliged to pay the owners of "preferred shares" in general, not less than 10% of net profit. This allows now to calculate the size of dividends for 2008, as is known the company's profit for the nine months. In the infrared, "Financial Bridge" believe that the payments amount to about 1 USD. per share, which is now almost 5 now. Also traditionally high payouts occur at TNK-BP and Gazprom Neft. On the shares of the last analysts IFD Kapital "expected dividend yield of 16% per annum. However, in 2009 net profit of oil companies may be seriously reduced, so that the dividend yield on the results next year will be not so enticing. "According to preliminary estimates, our company has no plans to reduce the amount of dividends for 2008 compared with dividends paid in 2007 - said D 'in the press service of Lukoil." - However, we assume that the dividend policy in 2009 years will be seriously adjusted, then mainly it will depend on oil prices in world markets. The company has three scenarios: optimistic, base and pessimistic. If the optimistic scenario, the investment program to make $ 9 billion, then the pessimistic (price per barrel of oil - $ 45) - about $ 5.4 billion in such conditions, dividend policy, too, could suffer. " "Greedy" and "generous" Miracles do not happen, and should not expect that companies that have so far neglected the dividend in 2008, suddenly decide to share profits with shareholders. To the category of "screwy" for objective reasons, are retailers and developers. "Even in the quiet time members of these sectors, directs all net profits to development and the reserve fund - describes the situation leading analyst of Financial Bridge" Catherine Loschakova. - Now the companies important to maintain its market position by boosting at least a small increase in future sales . And since bank lending is currently very difficult to rely on internal funds. " "A lot of retailers is quite high debt load, and part of the debts in dollars - adds analyst at VTB Capital, Maria Kolbina. - So the operational flow will be fully allocated to debt repayment. The company is relatively free in terms of debt, will try in 2009 all the forces sent to aggressive growth. As for developers, they were originally zakreditovany much stronger than retailers, and besides, they do not have a stable predictable deal flow, allows to pay the debt, so here we are talking about survival. " Also, forget about dividends are shareholders of almost all energy companies: in the first place for them is now an investment and not encourage shareholders. "For companies with state participation (FGC, RusHydro) will characterize the minimum dividend payments, as most of the cash flow will be invested - said a senior analyst at VTB Capital Dmitry Skryabin. - On a high dividend yield, in our opinion, we can expect only in companies owned by private owners and non-onerous investment obligations - for example, OGK-3 OGK-4 OGK-5, TGK-10. However, the "energy" can and do refuse to pay, analysts warn IFD Kapital ":" Shareholders of companies such as RusHydro, we can hope for only a modest dividend, but on most dividends to generation companies, and probably does not. Holding IDC has stated that it is necessary to refuse payment of dividends to their "daughter" (IDC). RAO ES of the East "also has abandoned its original idea of ??paying dividends," Mosenergosbyt ". Finally, banks are also unlikely to please its shareholders a good dividend. Exception - URSA Bank. His "prefecture" analyst "VTB Capital's Michael helmets considered the most attractive: their current quotes imply a 30 percent dividend yield, while it is paid in U.S. dollars. "Dividends have been recorded in the prospectus and the shares up 9% offering price $ 0,9, - says the helmets. - For the remaining banks, for their securities at a maximum yield of preferred shares of Sberbank (4.9%). We expect low payments other banks in connection with the already established dividend policy, and in connection with the difficult situation in the banking sector. " Against this background, the generosity of attraction look preferred securities of telecommunications companies: dividend yield of 25-30%. Telecoms are in the best position yet, and because their business is quite stable and focused solely on domestic demand, and prices are predictable and almost never decrease. So in terms of dividends communication companies have a chance to become a favorite and a year later.