We entered the crisis with a poorly developed banking system, thank God

Volume of lending to the real sector of the economy and natural persons of Russian banks in 2010 will increase by approximately 12-15% compared to the current year, said the first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev. "The next year, I think it would be somewhere 12-15% loan growth in nominal value," - he said. In this year the growth will be negligible. CB explains the reluctance of banks to lend to the economy in order that while in full force and effect have not earned the mechanism of state guarantees on loans and preferential car loans, and had not been issued already approved by VEB second tranche of subordinated loans to banks. In addition, according to Alexei Ulyukayev, continue lowering the refinancing rate. "We have a significant opportunity for decline (rate). We believe that this year inflation is highly likely to be less than 11%, and the next, probably less than 9%. This gives good opportunities for further reduction, "- said the Central Bank first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev reporters in Istanbul. Last week the central bank decided to reduce the refinancing rate at 0.5% to 10% per annum. Just two weeks ago was carried out previous reduction from 10 75% to 10,5%. "Forecasts of the Central Bank to increase lending to coincide with the predictions of experts" - commented Bank.ru analyst Uralsib Leonid Slipchenko. "Growth will be mainly due to an increase in the corporate portfolio, rather than retail. The volume of retail lending continued to fall. Perhaps in this area and will increase, but at a low base. That is, this year the volume of retail lending, as the State Bank and commercial banks will collapse by 20%. Against this background, may be a slight increase in the coming year. Earlier, during the last few years, banks have increased lending to individual persons, each year more than 50%. I note that preferential car loans will not play a significant role. After all, traditionally, more than half the retail portfolio had a mortgage. In my opinion, in improving the situation, people will, above all, to pay old loans before taking on new ones. Therefore, mortgage lending will go to pre-crisis level yet very long. At the same time, we expect that by the end of this year to improve the situation on the market corporate lending. We believe that the Russian banking system will increase the volume of lending in the next year due to state banks. Behind them, later, to tighten and commercial banks. But still, compared to previous years, it will be modest growth. With regard to government guarantees, perhaps this is an effective measure, but to assess the level of efficiency is difficult because if you do not clear the mechanism of distribution of benefits, and unknown other important nuances. Generally, we entered the crisis with a poorly developed banking system. And thank God, "- the expert concludes.