We expect a decline in oil prices - the comment of the expert

"Today, the Russian foreign exchange market, the ruble falls to the basket, which is associated with some decline in oil prices," - says Bank.ru Edward Lushin, head of treasury SDM-BANK "euro area still has a lot of complicated situations, those related to the uneven way out of crisis, individual countries, the problems with the repayment of sovereign debt problems of the upcoming write-downs of bad debts from bank balance sheets, to control inflation risks. Slowing down the crisis of eurozone countries have a negative impact on Russian exporters, for whom Europe is one of the major markets. In contrast to Europe, macroeconomic statistics, coming from the U.S., shows a gradual recovery of U.S. economy, the greater the growth of branches, higher rates of revenue growth, profits of U.S. companies. In addition, U.S. banks have already passed the stage of "clean up" their balance sheets of toxic assets, expected the same amount of write-offs of bad debts from banks in Europe are estimated by individual experts may even exceed 400-500 billion dollars global economy recovers uneven - higher growth rates are competitive economies in Southeast Asia, the U.S., Australia, Canada, Brazil, while uncertainty remains in the Western and Eastern Europe, selected countries of the CIS, including Russia. Problems of debt repayment constrain the reconstruction of countries in the Middle East. Therefore, in general, the situation can be characterized as slow growth. Bank of Russia's decision to reduce the refinancing rate and other rates do not have any impact on the currency market, the ruble is in floating state within a broad corridor, which adheres to the Central Bank. With this and the associated increased volatility of the ruble against the currency basket, as the Central Bank did not intervene in the foreign exchange trading, and "floating" exchange rate allows you to keep interest rates on the domestic market at a low level. As for prices of "black gold", we are more inclined to assess the current situation as a rebound after a serious fall, and expect to reduce the quotations of oil below $ 70 U.S. However, apart from technical factors supporting oil prices could have a moratorium on U.S. drilling new wells on the shelf commencing on the hurricane season in the Western Hemisphere, as well as the proximity of the holiday season, traditionally increases demand for petroleum products. In relation to the currency basket exchange rate will follow the movement of petroleum quotations. In the case of the movement of oil prices down, the ruble will be very volatile. In addition, following his last meeting of the Central Bank pointed end of a period of lower interest rates, and also noted the limited scope for further strengthening the ruble. We adhere to a cautious view, waiting until the end of the summer course a pair of dollar-ruble could test the mark of 32 rubles per dollar ", - the expert believes. At 17:00 MSK in the UTS MICEX dollar fell to 30.9612 rubles (-0.2016), euro - up to 38.0255 rubles (-0.0674).