The World Bank recently published its forecast for the Russian economy this year, it was worse than the government - 4,5% decline of GDP versus minus 2.2%. Our current forecast in force, it is based options to amend the budget and, strictly speaking, anti-crisis program. But there are risks, we are talking about related to the fact that the global economic situation could be worse, global recession, as we see on the latest projections, may be deeper than we expected. Secondly, there are internal risks, because the crisis - it is always a factor in behavior and crisis of confidence that could lead to more negative consequences and the investment sphere, and even in retail. We had been, and are now considering various options, where there is a similar assessment, but because during a crisis depends on the behavior of market participants, the anti-crisis program - it not only measures that are taken from above by the government. It gives a crisis management, the energetic model of business conduct - and in the corporate sector and banking. In these circumstances, it is assumed that the magnitude of drop in GDP may limit 2,2%. On the one hand, the anti-crisis program is given a positive attitude, on the other - Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that waiting for a "second wave". I assume that Mr. Kudrin said it was about the risks. Moreover, one of the key risks is the behavior of the banking sector. On the one hand - in the medium term and the behavior of banks and enterprises are the same, the banks must earn, must lend to both the population and enterprises, and in the forecast, which the Government had expected that bank lending for the year grow by 11-13%. Moreover, for systemically important banks, which receive state support, and it is quite significant, more than one percentage point of GDP, is expected to more intensive growth of credit, if that happens, then the second wave of the crisis will not happen. And if the bank loans would stand, and the rates will be for more than twenty percent, then it certainly would provoke a wave of economic recession, and then hit the boomerang and the banking sector itself. Under these conditions will behave the real economy? In general, we expect the economy in the last quarter of a revival. But we must understand that there is a fatal doom, even amid the global crisis. We have seen in China that can maintain growth, albeit at lower rates than in the past. In the crisis still has a certain window of opportunity, and depends on the government and from banks, businesses, how we use these opportunities. He forecast that we have suggests that the decline compared to last year stop by the fourth quarter, and we can move to a situation of recovery. It is important that the recovery has gained momentum in 2010, so in 2010 we avoid stagnation. When growth near zero, half a percent - is essentially to be stagnant. To increase was more significant - two, three percent or even more, you need to engage the domestic demand. To increase investment, because now they are falling very rapidly, you need to grow retail sales and consumer demand. Now we are just entering a phase when they begin to shrink revenues and retail sales. Under these conditions will behave inflation, which task in this regard is placed before the monetary authorities? We believe that we have every opportunity to keep within the inflation forecast (13% for the year. - Ed.). What are the prerequisites for this? From the perspective of monetary policy is a stable ruble, which in recent days even stronger. It's tight monetary policy when the excess liquidity, in fact, not a monetary indicators below last year. We expect that there will be some growth in monetary aggregates, but this growth will be healthy, he just will support demand in the economy and will help to ensure that interest rates are declining. On the other hand, the key risks to domestic demand - in compression loans. If we had was slowing loan growth and interest rates, the February-March - a stagnation of credit. And it beats on demand: the consumer, and investment. How likely external risks and how they can be painful? First, of course, talking about the price of oil. Now we see that oil prices may be more likely to grow even than the fall. Moreover, our estimates show that the economy will adapt and at a price lower than those forecast ($ 41 per barrel. - Ed.), For example, $ 30 or less. But, I repeat, the conjuncture is that there are more factors working to increase prices, although such a significant rise, as before, is not expected. Will probably be a period of low prices for us - about $ 50, but a few years ago these prices were for our economy, quite favorable. It is important that we now have learned to work under such degraded world prices. Where are the most critical point for Russian economy - in the external factors or all of the same major risks within the country? In our opinion, the most painful point - this is the bank lending to the real sector. Not even the internal state of the banks themselves, because after all they have reserves of money and the banks' capitalization has increased rather than decreased, including through the mediums that they have received from the state, the Central Bank. The main problem - it's stagnant credit, reduction in nominal public credit and mortgage consumer credit. It's not just the high interest rates and the rates that make unprofitable any investment activity, nor the current activity, despite the billions of dollars in subsidies provided to enterprises to offset this cost. Under these conditions, growth opportunities are extremely limited. But there is a second side of the coin: the banks have something to fear, companies need significant restructuring and a significant increase in efficiency, not just to return the money to banks, but to be competitive in a crisis, when demand is limited. When it is necessary to survive, not only due to the relatively low price, but due to a more modern product innovation. Then look at the situation from the other side - where the most promising growth points? If we have dramatically improved situation on world markets, then, of course, it would pull the whole economy, and we started to come back to the path of development, which provided us a very high growth in recent years. Nevertheless, the probability of this is low, moreover, the crisis as a time and showed the vulnerability of those segments of the economy, where high growth is based on the high price of oil, aluminum, nickel. Now the key growth opportunities are connected with import substitution, with the expansion of exports even in the face of lower prices, with reduced power consumption, product updates, that is, in fact, that is the basis of competitiveness. Because we still holds the record exactly at low rates of productivity and performance energoneeffektivnosti. The anti-crisis program - a search and stimulation of growth points or compensation for failures, support for vulnerable? Anti-crisis program in the first place - is a complex of measures on social protection. And the cost is most probably a significant part of which provides an active employment, payment of unemployment benefits. People who find themselves in more difficult conditions, it is necessary to give some props, a means of protection. This additional measures related to pensions, the social benefit. To some extent the anti-crisis role played by the policy raise salaries of state employees that have started late last year. Secondly, a set of measures to support the banking sector. Oh, and, thirdly, that measures to point to work with businesses, with industries such as automotive, and it is not only in specific ways and that it is due to a restructuring program and the company, its new marketing policies, programs, improve performance, the formation of brushed under the new range. Therefore, such a piece-work through government guarantees, subsidies, and additional commitments required, it is associated with the formation of new, more competitive enterprises. How do you evaluate an updated version of the 2009 budget as it is optimal? Budget rather stressful. And the main thing is not that there are some pockets - "the two write - three in mind, this still is not in the budget. The government and the anti-crisis program, and budget behave as honestly, because any true fast enough will come out. But the budget is tight, it is important to maintain the stability of the budget system. Eventually found a compromise solution: a deficit budget in view of the National Welfare Fund shall not exceed 8% of GDP. Based on these conditions, the entire budget and design is done. What is the likelihood of budget revision for this year? I think the budget will not be reviewed, commitments made, but of course nobody can guarantee that 100% of all matches that accepted. Here we see that the oil price started to rise and may be up to the year higher than planned, which will give the budget some extra money. Can then think about how to spend them or, conversely, restore and strengthen the reserve fund from which money is just now being spent. Crisis complicates or simplifies the task of modernizing the economy, the transition from a model based on exports of raw materials, to the innovation economy? In a crisis to do something, especially to modernize the economy, much more complicated. Only the output of another is not - or develop, or bankrupt. If you use a figurative comparison, we can say that this scenario of "Phoenix": a bird burns, but is reborn. Burn, or burn - in this state already, unfortunately, too many and need to find the strength to be reborn. This is easiest to do in such sectors as agribusiness, there is great potential for the development of food industries, agricultural industries. The potential for further growth is in animal husbandry, dairy industry, especially as there laid a lot of new technology, new economy, there are shots, and therefore we are entitled to expect results. Secondly, there are prospects for further development in our industries, exporters, such as metals, manufacturing of pipes, rolling production. Because here there was a significant upgrade facilities, and there are potentially large domestic demand from the oil and gas sector and from the railway, automotive, shipbuilding. Third, that the most difficult, the prospects of high-tech industries with innovative potential: automotive, aeronautics, electronics. In each of these sectors there is a very sick company, and those that have potential for development. For example, AvtoVAZ, which was a lot of questions. But as an example, I can say that they are the first few months of this year, performed almost an annual program of exports of cars, including in Germany, because "Kalina" is in a class of low cost car competitive enough. Especially in programs to support the domestic market. That is, on the problem companies have the potential, there is scope for a breakthrough. In aviation, we have one of the key projects - a "dry" - Superjet. The plane, which has already taken off, passes the test, we make it a serious stake in the domestic market, and ultimately on the external, market Asian countries, Canada and Europe. Because as a regional jet it has the potential niche. We have in each zone has a huge range of issues, but there are serious points of growth. We expect to exit from the crisis more efficient, more innovative. The whole question is that fundamentally the two years can not be reconstructed. A key role in our exports will still play an oil and gas industry, oil production, the same metals. But even for these a year or two we will make a significant step forward in improving energy efficiency in improving the degree of processing. Depends on this as we can to expand its presence in world markets, or how fast we can get out of the crisis, and even - to some extent, these companies will remain Russian. And to what extent the company, which now increasingly includes the state capital, will remain public? Public capital can not solve all these problems, we are talking about. Not only because it is not enough, but because he had no such training. Goskapitalu necessary to ensure effectiveness where it is already present - in the aircraft industry, the military-industrial complex, which need huge restructuring. We have developed a long, long discussed, and then took a long time, "The concept of long-term development until 2020." How the crisis affected the relevance of this document? "Strategy 2020", and especially substantiating its materials, such as time and pointed out that there will be a crisis that will affect the Russian economy. Long-term papers, of course, underestimate the scale of the crisis and a few shifts it to a later date. But what we are faced with a crisis, and it will be one of the key challenges of the first phase of implementation of the strategy from 2008 to 2012 - it was written there directly. Life has made adjustments to the implementation of the strategy. But it is important that the priorities of the strategy not only for the long term, but the key priorities for the first four-year, they have not eliminated the crisis. On the contrary, the main challenge lies in how to do to implement anti-crisis measures was not only an attempt to save and survive, but to ensure that the economy will be more innovative. In fully under 2009, we solve all problems could not, but in 2010-2011 we are planning to move in this direction. Budgetary conditions will be worse than we expected in the three-year budget and long-term development, it is now evident. But this very movement, chose a course in demand and the current circumstances. In this case, we did not set myself the task completely abandon the export-oriented model, but we must create new export economy and in terms of depth of processing of raw materials, and just create a powerful non-oil sector. Simply, we hoped that we have on this will be longer. The task became more complicated, and in this sense it has become more urgent and acute
No comments:
Post a Comment