Over the past three years, commodity profits have taught us to live well, and is now $ 35 per barrel to meet all of our budgetary needs are already too small. Nice to live not forbid ... At first glance, in 2005 and the end of 2008 are very similar. A barrel of oil - around $ 35, the dollar - about 29 rubles. So why, then, these figures do not force us to clutch at his head (ask yourself: Are you tormented anxiety three years ago?), But now the situation has called critical, and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin predicts serious problems for the economy? Explanation is. Analyze how to change the ratio of budget revenues and expenditures. In recent years, both these items have increased by 3 times. Of course, it happens gradually, balanced, but the fact remains. We are accustomed to what we can afford everything. Conventionally, in 2005 you received a salary of 10 thousand rubles. A lot of money - all as a whole lacked. Then your income went up dramatically, and you're getting 30,000 a month. What are you doing? That's right - quickly become accustomed to the good life: once in six months change the mobile phone, for each season by buying three pairs of shoes twice a year ride to the resort and so on. But suddenly your pay promptly falls to all of the same 10,000. Back to 2005, of course, very painful and uncomfortable - but what to do? Here you are, and rebuilt on the old track: no unnecessary purchases and spending, are alive and well fed, clothed - and well. Much the same is happening across the country. The only difference is that people are able to abandon the new standards of living and tighten the belt, and the state, took on increased financial and social obligations, is just as easy to forget about them can not. The problem is that for a time when hydrocarbon prices hit all imaginable and unimaginable record, we started naive to believe that the era of expensive oil will last forever. No, we, of course, save for a rainy day and managed to save something which "nest egg". (On December 1, 2008, the reserve was $ 132.63 billion, the volume of the National Welfare Fund - $ 76.38 billion), but the state still in full at the chance "to live beautifully" by running a lot of very expensive and long-term projects. ... But the life force to save perhaps one of the largest and most importantly, the irreversible article has been funding the additional costs of social programs. These budget expenditures are increasing every year. Only in 2008 for "social programs" the government has allocated 940 billion rubles. This is 2,7% of GDP, or 14.4% of all federal expenditures. According to preliminary estimates, in 2010, this value will increase by 44,3% compared with 2007. It is through this money and will increase the pension, various allowances and salaries to state employees. Will not cut spending on national projects and federal programs (in next year's budget to finance them laid over 1 trillion rubles). No matter how much oil cost, minimize implementation of these projects, nobody will. For officials it is like to sign in his profneprigodnosti, saying: "the people, live as you like, no money." No accident that in recent years in the White House, like a mantra, repeated that all social programs will be funded in full, no matter what. Investment projects are also well retracted state pocket. At one time there were plans to develop the Lower Angara Region, to build Sheremetyevo-3 "and the oil terminal at Ust-Luga to build bridges in Vladivostok, on the occasion of the APEC summit and rebuild the Olympic Games in 2014 the new town of Sochi. What's out there - every town and somehow standing on my feet the region have tried to start a multi-billion construction of his! In St. Petersburg, doing their ring road in Moscow Leningradki rebuilt. While oil was expensive, we could afford to fund any "construction of the century." And now officials are quietly thinking where to save, as cheaper projects and what is primarily to give. Not so long ago, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak, just reported the Prime Minister that, after long recalculations Olympic construction fell in half. In short, in an era of expensive oil we turned on full. The financial crisis, the fall in oil revenues, we have no plans, but discount it had to do. And a considerable - almost 5 trillion rubles. That's how much money ultimately abandoned power on anti-crisis measures. And what in the budget for next year? But it expected the oil price - $ 90 per barrel. The other day Vice-Premier and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has made all the necessary calculations, and clearly saw that the $ 35 - too little. Next year, the country's budget deficit could reach 1,5-2,5 trillion. To make ends meet, have to spend the Reserve Fund, and he we are not bottomless. Unfortunately.
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