Year of great change

Taken before social obligations of the State promises to do, the Reserve Fund is expected to be enough for at least one year, if necessary, the authorities are willing to increase debt. But indicative of the fact - an era of budget surplus as a symbol of growth and development took place. How was the era of rapid growth of the country's income from record energy prices. According to preliminary estimates, sources in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, the Russian budget deficit in 2009 could reach 6.3% of GDP. In this case, the state treasury could did not get about 32% of revenue, or about 3.5 trillion rubles. For comparison: the size of the Reserve Fund on 1 December 2008 amounted to 3.661 trillion rubles. Already clear that 2008 was a year of fracture trend: the rapid growth stagnation was replaced by the end of the year and the threat of recession in the future. What to remember the past 12 months? Of course, the global crisis, successive over-fulfillment of plans for inflation. For the first time in many years of underperformance forecast for GDP growth, the banking crisis, the collapse of Russian stock markets, the devaluation of national currency, the trillions of rubles of state, generously handed out business, anticipation of tax reform. The last decade can be called a protracted vacation for the Russian authorities: in fact, the economy grew and developed without much government assistance. Due to the momentum given by the 1998 devaluation of the ruble, and then with the support of the ever-increasing world oil prices the Russian economy showed high (according to some, even too high) growth rates. At the peak of the growing budget surplus, the surplus balance of payments and the income the government can afford an ambitious goal - doubling the GDP, large investment projects, forming a full-fledged middle class. The very same power in recent years, more involved in the consolidation of assets in its hands under the auspices of state-owned corporations and state-owned companies. One of the goals of development and has been a large-scale integration of the Russian economy in the world. Integration, through which we could really almost an equal to talk to Europe - from the perspective of the "great oil and gas power, has brought other benefits: the global crisis and became a national disaster. According to the adopted at the end of last year's budget of 2008, inflation this year should not exceed 7%, while GDP growth reached 7,8%. But if the outlook for economic growth has long been confirmed, the rate of inflation had to be revised, and more than once: the forecast was gradually increased: 8,5% - 10,5% - 11,8% - 13,5%. Socio-economic indicators in the monthly view for the year 2008 can clearly be seen when the economy went from "overheating" with all its plusses and minuses to stagnation. This happened in June. This month inflation for the first time did not exceed 1% - or rather, stayed exactly at this point and then never went beyond that limit. On December 22 the rise in prices has reached 13.1%. A GDP growth dropped below 7% over the same period last year. In August alone, it was exactly 7% in September - 7.1%, which, however, did not save the situation. As a result, GDP growth will be much lower than predicted - at 6% by year end. Back in the mid-year were unfounded hopes that the accumulated reserves and high oil prices will allow us to avoid the most serious consequences. But it seems that the government also relied on independent factors, and it did not take proactive efforts to maintain progress. "The global economic crisis, which only takes place, showed the exhaustion of the growth model of the Russian economy, which we had in previous years," - said in November Gref Nabiullina. According to her, this model was based on high oil prices, which in the past five years have increased three-fold, as well as the availability of cheap, "long" money to Russian banks and companies abroad. "This model was not very stable," - the minister admitted, once again referring to the low diversification of the domestic economy, the dependence on exports of a few industries, insufficient development of its financial market. The realization that all of the above needs to be changed, it's not the most opportune time. But the government is forced to set about to solve the problems accumulated in the more stable and "bread" times. Beginning in the autumn the government had to solve more pressing problems - threatened to default on its foreign debts of private companies and a full-blown banking crisis. The answer to these, as was fashionable to say, "challenges" seemed obvious: the size of infusions of government money into the economy came close to the amount of the expenditure part of the federal budget. In this new model of economic growth in Russia while clearly not groping. "The very statement that we had a" growth model ", it seems to me an exaggeration - says Helen Matrosov, director of macroeconomic forecasting company BDO Unicon. We had no model, there was no national idea, we just drifted with the current" oil the river. "Now she is shallow, and we need to look for other ways to travel. Even some time we can move forward on the fed for a period of prosperity," a donkey "- foreign exchange reserves and accumulated funds. But all this miraculous sources, sent from God and the world markets, nothing is really his, we have not created. " According to the expert, it is difficult to isolate and otfiksirovat any obvious failings of the authorities: "The main drawback of the current system of governance is the lack of a full-fledged" think tank "concerned exclusively with qualitative analysis and forecasting, and not the administration of the economy. This is not the case when the predictions have to be changed every three months. We have been treating the disease and its prevention need to be addressed. Business processes, including at the state level must be set not to "fight ...", and on the creation." Unfortunately, the expert said before that we are still far. Chief economist at Troika Dialog Gavrilenkov agree that the efforts of the vector attached to the wrong development. "The economy has become more regulated," - says Mr. Gavrilenkov, which is not good: at the same time worsening the quality of macroeconomic policy. "Regulation, when everything is growing - this one does not require much effort, but when it falls - we need more subtle approaches," - he believes. "If we talk about changing the model, the previous characterized first and foremost not only the rise in oil prices, but also considerable public support. In this economy until 2003, when oil was $ 20, grew more efficiently," says Mr. Mr. Gavrilenkov. "This year, it became clear that prosperity was a fiction, it was based solely on high oil prices, it was not - it was over in three months", - says Mikhail Delyagin, director of the Institute of Globalization Problems. "The current macroeconomic policy is copied from the 1990's, and the result is the same as in 1998, but this time will be defaulted on corporate obligations, and not by the state", - believes Mr. Delyagin. Need, he believes, a fundamental change in the model - the transition from the liberal fundamentalism to responsible government regulation, stimulate public demand. "The state has a unique ability to print money, and in this case would not be inflationary emission, the money supply shrinks drastically the last few months," - the economist supposes. But that issue has been effective, we must, first, to limit corruption, "that money is not skimmed off" and, secondly, to limit the growth of monopolies, "to no infusion resulted in an increase in prices."