Crisis investment in 2008 was a disaster for most investments in latitude instruments and the number of investors. During the 1998 crisis, private investors have lost, primarily to bank failures and a sharp devaluation of the ruble, to a lesser extent - on state bonds and stocks. This year, the losses suffered Investors who put in stocks and bonds - both corporate and government. Russian stock indexes fell more than 70%. Individual stocks lost in value to 90%. Occurred more than six dozen of defaults on bonds of corporate issuers. The yield on the bonds of corporate issuers is greater than 100% per annum. Value of shares of mutual funds dropped to 2005 levels. More than a dozen banks subjected to rehabilitation, even as many have lost their licenses in the autumn. Curtail the activities of management companies, the number of private investment funds exceeded two dozen. Protective futures and options strategies in many cases only increased the losses. Where and how to invest, depends on how you interpret the current situation and its development over the next year. According to Director of Investment Management Company "Sputnik" Vladimir Malhanova, the current Russian crisis have much in common with the Asian crisis of 1997. First, large corporate short-term debt, which had not been given attention by the state. Secondly, the high concentration of companies in these countries for a monopoly. The difference lies in the economy: Russia exports mainly raw materials exported to Asian countries while various equipment, consumer goods. The sharp devaluation of national currencies then allowed to recover in many exports and the economy. Then the recession is not out on a global level due to the fact that U.S. authorities were able to cut interest rates to stimulate its economy. As recalled by Vladimir Malkhanov, as was the case of recessions past two decades, the output of which was carried out with lower interest rates. Now, like the manager, among the major economies of such a possibility remains only in Europe and the UK. In the U.S., Japan and the rates are close to zero. In Russia, the interest rates to stimulate the economy have not yet learned. The Russian economy is largely dependent on energy exports. And the Russian market for more than 50% consists of equity oil and gas companies. Therefore inevitable that the world market of oil will affect the Russian economy and the stock market. Control restrained in pricing. While too many factors that negatively affect the oil market. These factors can easily drop the price of oil to $ 20 per barrel. According to the head of department of Applied Analysis UK "Leader" Oleg Cherkashin, now in the world there is an excess supply of oil, equivalent to about 1,2-1,5 million barrels per day, which is rapidly falling demand leads to a rapid increase of commercial oil reserves. OPEC said that since January 2009 the reduction of quotas compared to September amounted to 4,000,000 barrels per day. But, according to the agency Platts, daily output OPEC in November 2008 fell by only 950 thousand barrels. In 1998, consumption dropped sharply by the 1997 Asian crisis. In 2001-2002, there was a recession in the U.S.. And, as emphasized by Oleg Cherkashin, each time the cartel needed a series of slides of production to balance supply and demand and stabilize prices. In 1998-1999, the required reduction in production at 4.53 million bpd in 2001 - by 5 million barrels. However, even under the condition that part of the OPEC will continue to reduce production quotas, as well as some who are close unprofitable plants in UK "Leader" are expected to stabilize the oil market in four to six months. Nevertheless, managers polled expect that next year's average oil prices will be $ 50-60 per barrel. While the majority of surveyed managers agree that implemented a fairly rapid recovery when the economy is showing a decline of over two-three quarters, and then resumes growth. As noted by Oleg Cherkashin, in such a scenario took place, most recessions in the economy (including a U.S. recession in 2001-2002). Then the market decline has been very impressive (the S & P lost 49%). According to the Head of Analytical Research VTB Asset Management Ivan Ilyushin, after reaching the 2008 record high degree of risk aversion for all quantitative indicators that can be measured, risk appetite, investors must sooner or later return. This could happen, rather, closer to the second half of 2009. More pessimistic lead portfolio manager, Deutsche UFG Capital Management Maxim Silence. According to him, "appetite for risk in the world will not be back before the end of recession in major economies, and not before the fourth quarter of 2009." In this case, the Russian stock market can cease to exist as a separate market, and will follow global trends. In a downturn in the world, reducing demand for commodities and raw materials of Russian export-oriented commodity economy to stimulate domestic demand, according to managers. According to the head of management shares of the Criminal Code of Renaissance Investment Management "by Anton Rakhmanov, in times of crisis, domestic demand must be supported by infrastructure projects - roads, bridges, ESPO, etc. In his opinion, these projects will support the demand for steel industry, construction materials. Maxim Tishin believes that hope for independence of our markets can only be associated with large-scale change of rules placing insurance and pension reserves. As expected, Oleg Cherkashin, in early 2009, is addressed empowerment of investing pension funds under management VEB. In addition, he said, in the final stage of approval are proposals for the emergence of a new tool for investing long-term financial program - infrastructure bonds. In addition, according to Anton Rakhmanov, after the devaluation of the ruble against the currencies of the world interested in the Russian market will wake up again among foreign investors. Anti-crisis management Thus, in the first half of managers predict a weak market. Therefore, the next three to six months managers are advised to choose a conservative strategy. In particular, keep the money in the cache, preferring a basket of currencies (euros and dollars) because of the complexity of predicting the behavior of exchange rates. As explained by Oleg Cherkashin, stimulate the U.S. economy by issuing treasury bonds could undermine the attractiveness of U.S. dollar and the role of US-Treasuries as a safe-haven asset. Managers pay attention to foreign currency bonds, whose yields will decline as a result of the gradual stabilization of the market. In this case, in respect of domestic bond managers yet configured carefully. According to them, in the coming months on the market of ruble bonds will have no demand or liquidity. In addition, the number of defaults will increase. According to Mr Malhanova on ruble-denominated corporate bonds market recovery is not worth waiting for as long as there is a risk of devaluation of the ruble. For those who are sitting in the papers, "there is nothing left but to wait for payments or defaults," said philosophically Mr Malkhanov. In the stock market, as expressed CC head of analytical department of Uralsib Alexander Golovtsov, some investors would "play into the bottom" - in the expectation that the bottom has already been passed in the fall and the market will grow. In this case, the best option the behavior of investors - wait for panic sales on the market and acquire marketable shares of companies with low tax burden, which do not have large debts. Moreover, in respect of the shares are the old principles: they must be liquid, the company should not have a high debt load. Managers believe that is to choose securities of companies with state or of strategic importance to the economy. In this case, Anton Rakhmanov identifies several key factors that investors should pay attention to making the transition into more risky instruments. In the first place, according to Mr. Rakhmanov, a key factor will be the state of world stocks. If the stocks of finished products, oil, iron ore, coal continues to grow, this means that the demand for them in the world continues to fall. Therefore, the signal for investment will reduce inventory and the beginning of the movement of traffic volume to the average values ??over the past five years. For example, now supplies steel and coking coal are at a six-month consumption. When they return to the levels of two months' consumption, this will be the signal for purchases in the stock market. In addition, according to Anton Rakhmanov, an important factor in real interest rates in developed countries. Currently, the yield on U.S. mortgages is 8%, which is a ten-year maximum. In this case, the Fed rate at which banks are refinanced, is close to zero. When the difference between those rates drop to 4%, this would indicate a recovery in demand. For those who already sits in the papers, should understand that the term profit greatly lengthened and is estimated not to one year. In the preferred position are primarily oil and gas companies, which form the basis of the Russian market, as well as metallurgists, a significant proportion of revenue which comes from exports. Alexander Golovtsov highlights another reason to buy shares of oil and gas companies. The fact that Russian companies have more than half the cost - taxes. And lower oil prices cutting costs faster. In addition, the company helps the devaluation of the ruble. So that at $ 20 per barrel, Lukoil will operate at a profit. Alexander Golovtsov highlights and gold mining companies, demand for products that will continue. More so that this precious metal can serve as a reliable investment protection in the case of the deepening global crisis. However, Vladimir Malkhanov notes and the negative side of investment in gold, explaining that against the metal "playing CB world." Growing demand for gold leads to the fact that central banks are losing control financial system, which used to be able to provide printing of money or interest rates. And here is a very popular a year ago, capital protection products managers are very reserved. In particular, hedge funds are now experiencing the worst of times in the history of their existence. As noted by Vladimir Malkhanov, a giant market volatility has led to huge losses in hedge funds, many are on the brink of survival, and all this has undermined the interest in them from a wide range of investors. Ivan Ilyushin believes that structured products with capital protection may look attractive to frighten investors, but the highest volatility of markets makes it very expensive optional component of such strategies. As a result, much of the potential inherent in the markets, if implemented, would remain in sellers of these products.
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