In 2009, citizens will be left on starvation rations credit

"Next year we expect a serious slowdown in the credit portfolio of the banking system," said the chairman of board of bank VTB 24 Mikhail Zadornov. He estimated that this figure will increase by no more than 10%. The main reasons - reduced demand for loans from individuals and companies, tightening requirements for borrowers. Mikhail Zadornov expects that by 2008 the loan portfolio of natural persons will increase by 40% and the volume of private deposits - slightly more than 14%. "This imbalance can not last long: the rate of growth of the portfolio as a whole system of loans to natural persons and in particular, will meet the natural growth of banks' liabilities, primarily - deposits of citizens. And we do not expect that they will increase by more than 10% in 2009 - predicts the head of VTB 24. These figures are unusual for Russian bankers. In 2007, the operators were given 57% more credits to the population than in 2006. And even a relatively modest 20 percent jump in the "physical" portfolio for the first half of the year is not very upset financiers: they hoped to catch up in the second half. However, after the events of "Black October" diminished their appetites. The leaders of several banks out of the top-15 were recognized in talks with "F." that their strategy lay the 10-15-percent jump in retail portfolio in the business plan for 2009 as the most optimistic scenario. Realistic option, according to the interlocutors - growth of 5%, pessimistic - lending to equal the amounts of repayment. Voice set for next year limits for retail bankers refuse - they say that time is too hectic for exact figures. Obviously, the increase in lending volumes will be accompanied by rapid growth of arrears in the total loan portfolio, which, according to Mikhail Zadornov may reach 8-10%. "For some players failure doubled in the past two months. The share of" bad debts "in the total amount of loans in different banks ranging from 3 to 7%," - says a senior analyst at the agency RusRating Victoria Belozerova. In the area of ??high hazard are, first of all loans, "Physics: from the beginning of the year delay on them has grown by about 2%. Layoffs of borrowers have just started to appear in the banking statistics. Therefore, even the "optimistic" 10% increase in retail bankers will push very gently, mostly - at the expense of credit cards and "short" of consumer loans. "Because today many people," dragged "their funds from various financial instruments, they have free money. I think some of this money will be even in difficult market conditions to invest in buying a home, so the mortgage, in my opinion, too, will develop," - board member of the Russ-Bank, Dmitry Yurtsvayg. "Island of stability" in the sluggish retail lending market will remain state banks. For example, according to Mikhail Zadornov, VTB 24 plans to grow above the market and to increase in 2009, the volume of loans granted to natural persons by 20%. The Bank expects to resolve yet another "non-trivial task - to maintain profitability. Achievable if we have such goals for other players? "In my estimation, the overall system and individual players will be able to survive and, at least not be at a loss for the index of the delay within 10%," - says Victoria Belozerova from "RusRating. In general, the analyst, voiced by Mikhail Zadornov predictions come true, if the market will be able to avoid serious disasters: "If we assume that in future we can avoid" sharp "turns in the crisis, for example, another stock market crash or a sudden panic of depositors, a 10-percent increase in total retail portfolio and deposits of physical persons seems to be quite realistic. "