The catastrophe of Forbes

Recently, Forbes magazine, presented the gloomiest outlook for the oil market in the new year. His expert Christopher Hellman awaits the collapse of oil prices in 2010 to $ 40 per barrel. Middle Eastern countries to pass the increase proposal to pay off creditors. In addition, the world continues to increase the dollar, but it usually affects the price. "What's bad for fuel suppliers, good for the American economy", - says Helman. For Russia, of course, will not be exposed to such a catastrophe. Note that the vast majority of analysts adheres much more optimistic view of the dynamics of oil this year. For example, according to the forecast of bank holding company Goldman Sachs, the average annual price of $ 85 per barrel. "Any forecast has the right to exist", - comments Bank.ru Valery Nesterov, an analyst at Troika Dialog. "The oil price is not quite a market category. It depends on factors that are difficult to predict. We adhere to a more balanced position. Yes, on the one hand there is the debt problems of the Middle East countries. On the other - is OPEC's decision not to increase oil production quotas. In addition, by and large, spare capacity is now only a single Middle Eastern countries - Saudi Arabia. If they want to significantly increase production, thereby bringing down prices? - Hardly. Now rising dollar. But, first, not the fact that this long-term trend. Secondly, this is not the only factor influencing the quotations of "black gold". We believe that the average oil price will be $ 70 per barrel. Of course the fall in prices to $ 40 may as well grow to $ 100. But, in my opinion, this is unlikely, "- said the expert. In addition, Nesterov drew attention to the fact that our monetary authorities, according to their statement, the same mood is not so pessimistic. This is evidenced in particular that the Treasury wants to repeal a tax break for oil companies, which they achieved last year. This is an export duty on crude oil from fields in Eastern Siberia. On Friday at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, another Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin suggested to restore the export duty on the East oil, told Vedomosti participants and Energy Ministry official. A zero rate of duty for raw materials with 13 fields acting only two months, the newspaper notes. If officials were confident that prices will fall below $ 50, then, of course, such a step could be no question, says Nesterov. It would be obvious that the industry should be supported. But now the situation has changed, and that's why the idea to cancel the decision before the decision. "In our view, the growth of oil prices is not over. Despite the efforts of the People's Bank of China precautionary measures to curb the rapid growth of the economy, oil consumption this country will only increase with the commissioning of new facilities, actively lent over the past 12 months. Expansion of road networks and transport infrastructure will increase demand, together with an increase in traffic "- Edward says Lushin, head of treasury SDM-BANK. "Of course, we are seeing reductions of oil imports from the United States, and promoting alternative energy sources, but with the revival of the developed countries will increase oil consumption. This year we will see a surge in demand as the population growth of motorization in China and other Asian developing countries have become the engine of demand. A strengthening of the dollar as weak U.S. economic recovery will be less impact on oil quotas, which will increasingly depend on the free cash liquidity in the world and the rate of inflation ", - says Lushin. At the same time, while the oil market has not fared news background. Some analysts believe that will soon be followed by a correction. "Falling oil prices, which started at the beginning of last week due to propped up the dollar and the" Chinese factor "was reinforced by the end of the week due to the publication of negative data Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the proposals of Barack Obama. Against this backdrop, the latest data of the Commission on futures trading in commodities (CFTC), the week ended January 19, the net difference of speculative long positions over the short decreased by 1% to 134.381 contracts "- to the experts" PSB ". Analysts point out that the decrease in crude oil and distillate according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) and EIA for the week ended Jan. 15, resulted from a decrease in the volume of oil refining in the U.S. in response to weakening demand for petroleum products. "If the pressure on the market of" black gold "does not subside, many speculators are likely no longer be able to ignore the fundamentals, then oil prices could fall in coming days, up to $ 70 per barrel. In addition, we do not exclude that at the end of the week on U.S. GDP data will be a surprise, and if they fall below expectations, while the previously marked level of $ 70 per barrel. can also be easily broken "- experts state.