Dad gave?

Moscow and Minsk agreed. Today signed a package of documents and issued a joint statement by the vice-premiers of the two countries. In them, the authorities of Belarus and Russia have assured European consumers that oil supplies will be stable. Under the agreement, Moscow, as promised, put the Minsk 6,3 million tons of oil with no tariffs for domestic consumption in Belarus. "We were able to prove that the domestic needs of Belarus in oil are not 5 million tons and 6.3 million tons, excluding domestic oil production" - said First Vice Premier of Belarus Vladimir Semashko. The following year, these amounts may be revised depending on the growth of the economy of the Republic of Belarus, the production and consumption of petroleum and petroleum products is a country. By October 1, will be evaluated growth of the Belarusian economy. According to official forecasts, they can make this year 10-11% of GDP. If the growth will be higher, the Belarusian side has the right to proportionately increase the quota of duty-free oil supplies. In addition, not be subject to duty those quantities of oil to be supplied to Belarusian refineries (refinery), and then exported to Russia in the form of petroleum products. "Thanks to the agreements reached low losses of Belarus will not be as great as it was seen more recently," - says Semashko. In this case, the tariff for transit of Russian oil via Belarus increased by 11%. As early as October of this year, it can be upgraded, said Semashko. According to him, consistent method of calculating the cost of transit. It allows you to calculate the costs and present them to the Russian side. If Russia disagreed with the Belarusian side, the calculations provided by an annual rate increase for the transit of Russian oil to the size of the Russian inflation plus 3%. Note that in 2010 the Russian authorities to forecast inflation at 7-8%. Recall that a regular "energy" the conflict broke out between Minsk and Moscow in December 2009. Russia has decided to impose full duties on the export of "black gold" oil supplies to Belarus outside the quota 6.3 million tons in 2010, which comes free. Belarus, referring to the establishment of the Customs Union, considered the move unacceptable. The fact that earlier oil is free to Belarus, the Belarusian refineries processed it and sold abroad, getting a good profit. Re-exports of oil, in fact, the resale of Russian oil, has a significant presence in the Belarusian GDP. In response Belarus threatened to increase the tariff for transit of Russian energy ten-fold, from 3.9 to 45 dollars per ton. In January, the situation continued to run high. "The fact that the protracted negotiations said that the negotiators on both sides ignore the fact that the Belarusian oil refineries remained a maximum of one week. This means that if the reticence can not be excluded that the Belarusian side will go to the siphoning off of the transit of Russian oil although it will clearly be considered as theft with all the ensuing legal consequences, "- said party talks in an interview with RIA Novosti on January 26. But by January 27 dew parties managed to find a compromise. Experts and representatives of the media differently evaluate the outcome of these negotiations. But most of them believed that Moscova able to defend their positions, and Minsk lost. Initially, it was clear that plans to raise fares - blackmail. Economically, they were grounded weakly. At the same time, funds received from re-exports, according to some estimates, make up one third of the Belarusian GDP. Belarusian refineries consume and sell to Western Europe, 15 million tons. Now, apparently, this "shop" was closed. Money to buy Russian oil from the payment of 100% duty Belarusians have not. "I do not think this should say that someone wins, someone loses," - says the head of analytical department Bank.ru IR "Gallion Kapitla Alexander Razuvaev. "If the Ukraine it was clear that with Belarus is more complicated. We are talking about the geopolitical interests of the Customs Union, etc. The main thing is that we have preserved the safety of transit. As far as I know, Belarusians continue to instruct on the abolition of fees, but from July 1, 2010. However, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who is responsible for this problem, a very tough negotiator and consistent. In my opinion, sooner or later we dozhmem Lukashenko on all issues. Noting that Belarus, we are quite long, difficult, but important for us to have a dialogue about a long time. In particular, the Russian authorities want to Belarus was included into the ruble zone. Lukashenko has been agreed, but insisted that he had the right to print rubles in unlimited quantities. As a compromise, Moscow has offered him an option in which the Minsk receives the right to issue money, but within a specific, hard limit. Dad refused. These talks were in 1999, 2000, 2001. Then, Putin refused to move the topic. The ruble has strengthened the economy grew. But this problem is, of course, remains a strategic objective of our financial authorities. I note that Belarus will be released soon with their bonds on the MICEX. Bonds, of course, will be denominated. This is the first step. In principle, the rejection of its emission center to some degree oznachat limitation of sovereignty. But the transition to rubles, ie, a stable currency is beneficial to Belarusians. Russia has now sufficiently developed financial market, more turnovers, compared with Belarus is strong, stable economy. This oznachat predicted, appropriate interest rates, lower inflation, etc. "- says the expert. But, of course, Lukashenko unpredictable politician. Russian authorities understand this and build a pipeline that would bypass - the Baltic Pipeline System-II (BPS-2). BPS-2 - designed system of main pipelines, which will link the Druzhba pipeline to the Russian seaport on the Baltic Sea on the Unecha-Andreapol Ust-Luga. Purpose of construction is evident. Necessary to reduce the risks from oil transit through other countries. After completion of the project is planned to reduce exports by sections of the Druzhba pipeline Unecha - Polotsk and Unecha - Mozyr with 78.9 million tonnes per annum to 41 million tons by 2010 and to 27 million tons by 2015. It is noteworthy that the plot The BPS-2 Unecha (NPS-1)-Andreapol (NAP-5) duplicates the emergency section of the pipeline Druzhba Unecha-Polotsk, passing mainly through the territory of Belarus. "In the future it is likely redirect the share of flows from the northern branch of the Druzhba pipeline to the BTS-2. In this case, the main routes of Russian oil tankers will take place from the port of Ust-Luga to the Polish port of Gdansk and to the German port of Rostock. These ports are located as close to the oil refineries of Europe. In addition, it is possible that part of the oil shipped to Germany, will be shipped at the port of Gdansk, and then through the Polish city of Plock delivered to the refinery Leuna and Schwedt, "- explains the Bank of Moscow analyst Denis Borisov. "The increase in tensions between Russia and Belarus, in my view, a positive impact on the prospects for the BPS-2 in general, and especially on the launch date for this project. In the absence of BPS-2 project would be a risk that once the political conflict will lead to a complete halt exports through Belarus. This would lead to large losses as the financial and image. Thus, the usefulness and validity of the pipeline increases. At the moment, has already blocked part of the transit routes for oil through Belarus. Upon completion of construction of BPS-2 a significant portion of transit traffic will be transferred to the pipeline. Thus, the filling of a new export pipeline will be high. As for Russian companies that will use the BPS-2 for hydrocarbon supplies to Europe, it can be Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, TNK-BP, to a lesser extent - Lukoil and Gazprom Neft - says Timur Khamitov , an analyst at Finam Investment Company.