In the second half of the year, oil prices will collapse

Today, oil prices continued to rise. The cost of "black gold" is held at $ 72 per barrel. "The rising cost of oil for two reasons", - says Dmitry Bank.ru Lyutyagin, an analyst with IC Veliz Capital. "First, yesterday morning, the dollar was down due to Chinese statistics. During January, inflation in China was lower than previously estimated. Prices rose by 1.5% rather than 2%. This suggests that it is unlikely China will impose restrictions on the financial markets. Chinese authorities, in considering the need to reduce the risks of too rapid economic growth and its individual sectors, above all, look at inflation. The fact that it is low. allows us to hope that China will not impose any restrictions. In addition, the statistics for January showed a very good momentum in lending. As China's economy has come back a lot of money. A market participant expects that some of these funds will fall on the financial market, including the commodity markets, in particular, the oil market. Today, oil has helped to grow an overview of U.S. Department of Energy, which raised its forecast for global oil demand "- explains the expert. Meanwhile, yesterday, it seemed that the game goes against the "oil" and other risky assets, including the ruble. By the end of the trading day down the single European currency. Again reminded of his Greek problem. Leadership of the German Government stated that Greece has to solve their fiscal problems, so the "Greek Question" at the EU summit could not be discussed. Provided support for the dollar and the statement of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. In his report, he announced the possibility of stimulating the economy rolling action. We are talking about reducing the amount of money in the economy and interest rates rise. However, judging by the statements, the agency B. Bernanke is not yet ready to begin phase tightening of monetary policy, citing high unemployment. "If this policy continues, then the period of cheap U.S. money could be delayed as the global economic crisis has created a serious struggle with the costs of the enterprises and improve their performance. However, in conditions of maintaining high incomes of the employed population in developed countries, a significant decrease in consumer demand is also unlikely. As a result, may get a situation that the economic recovery in developed countries will take place against a background of high unemployment ", - experts say Bitsa Invest" Over time the market considerably softened his attitude towards B. Bernanke speech: objective reasons for the tightening of monetary Credit Policy at the Fed right now is not, and expectations regarding the growth rates are not substantially changed even after the Fed chairman hints. Today, Bernanke's speech is already out of the top news, and the attention of world markets is shifting to a very good statistics on the labor market in Australia and reduce inflation in China, which can slow or even postpone the "crackdown" by Chinese monetary authorities "- note the Bank of Moscow . Also yesterday, the markets have disappointed the data on trade balance in the U.S., which had a negative impact on the dollar. "We recall that the balance of trade in the U.S., the forecast -35.7 billion dollars and the previous value of -36.4 billion in December amounted to -40.2 billion dollars" - pay attention to experts Probusinessbank. Thus, improving compositions of the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely. Since it is obvious that the state's economy is still very weak. "In the first half of a significant tightening of the monetary authorities should not expect. Money in the market will be much, and the price of oil will be high. On average, this year the price of oil will be 65-70 dollars per barrel. However, I note that yesterday's statements by Bernanke, the markets reacted very sensitively. The correction was significant. Therefore the probability of collapse of the market, including the oil market after the Fed's monetary tightening in the second half of 2010 is high, 50-60%. The cost of oil could fall to $ 50 per barrel. However, at such a low level, it will not last more than two months. Then he will rise. Therefore, in view of past, the correction in the oil market will be critical for the Russian budget, our economy ", - said Lyutyagin.