Economic slalom

Experts do not deny that the economy of many countries entered a phase of recession. Well, what would be in Russia? The unequivocal answer to this question no one has to give can not. Specialists are conflicting. One thing is clear: aside from the global economic downturn to remain Russia will not succeed. "Virtually the entire Russian economy is hypersensitive to changes in world markets, explains the head of the intelligence agencies Integrum Igor Chesnokov. - This is the basic cost of the choice of raw materials as a base for the economic system." Described fact is clearly visible on the example of declining stock markets: when foreign indices sags per conventional unit, the Russian site to respond to more serious and far-reaching consequences. "The Russian economy is directly tied to world markets as a commodity exporter, - confirms the chief of analytical management investment company Veles Capital Michael Zak. - In this situation, we are totally dependent on the behavior of the global economy." Meanwhile, Russia is in a "borderline", according to experts. That is, the recession has not yet begun, but to avoid it is unlikely. If you look at the decline in industrial production in November, which amounted to 8,7% compared with November 2007 and 10,8% - from last October, the recession in this sector are already evident, says the chief of analytical department of the bank Petrocommerce Oleg Solomin. If, however, draw attention to the pace of industrial development since the beginning of the year, they are still positive: the growth of this sector is 3.7% for the comparable period last year. This fact says let the weak, but the growth of Russian economy, I am sure Oleg Solomin. So that points of view on presence or absence of economic decline may be exactly two, concludes expert. "That's why we have seen controversy in the highest government circles about whether there is still a recession in Russia or not, - says Oleg Solomin. - After a clear mathematical definition of the process does not exist." Most often, the term "recession" implies that the economy of a country, two or more consecutive quarters showed negative growth rates. However, possible options for assessments made on the basis of other macroeconomic indicators, which reflects the overall level of activity in the economy. Therefore, according to one estimate, the recession in Russia has already begun, and on another - it will not do, says a leading expert management company "Finam Management" Dmitry Baranov. So, last week the Russian government announced its forecast that growth next year of national GDP is 3%, and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that our economy has not yet entered a recession. Dmitry Baranov inclined to believe this information: "The real sector does not always require ongoing funding from outside, in most cases it costs on their own, and funding draws on various investment projects. Therefore, the current funding problems are unlikely to cause a recession." Stopping distance, however, not all the interviewed experts were so optimistic. The head of the Center for Economic Studies, Institute of Globalization and Social Movements (IGSO) Basil Koltashov believes that the recession is already taking place in the Russian economy. Moreover, the expert notes that the downturn could be stated in the summer, when the first information about falling sales and industrial production. The crisis passed the exchange phase, said Vasily Koltashov. Now he is in full swing affects the real sector and rapidly destroys the service sector. Igor Chesnokov generally believed that the recession in the Russian economy is inevitable. It's a natural stage of its development, which, in accordance with the theory of cycles are followed by a period of dynamic growth. When the economy is on the rise, companies seek to extensive development and capacity factors of production. This, in turn, is impossible without large-scale funding from outside sources and, in particular, without credit. In the liquidity crisis significantly increases the cost of credit, and obtaining new resources is difficult for the same reasons. As a result, enterprises are forced to reduce investment, which leads to lower growth of production, explains Igor Chesnokov. But that's not all the reasons for the emergence of a recession, there are additional negative factors. Now reduces the activity of consumers, also suffering from the effects of financial crisis, and government support for the real sector, as opposed to financial, mostly haphazard and does not aim at stimulating demand, said Igor Chesnokov. High probability of a recession not only recognized economists and investment companies, but also the bankers. First Deputy Chairman of the Board Moskommertsbanka Lyudmila Lebedeva said that among the causes of economic recession will be the absence of effective working mechanisms of funding and monitoring of resource allocation. Yes, and development plans for key priorities and sectors for 2009 are not yet sufficiently developed, which also increases the likelihood of a recession, experts say. "The problems with the financing - the main root of current and future challenges in the Russian economy along with lower prices for Russia's main exports - oil, gas and metals, confirmed Deputy Director of Investment Department PSB Maria Subbotina. - Inability to carry out investment and finance its current activities contributed to the decline of employment that, in turn, has hit and can still hit consumer demand, leading to a new round of decline in production in industries oriented to the end consumer. " Solomin, Oleg also noticed that the Russian economy has already entered a phase of decline (reduced production volume, number of employees, shrink investment programs), and in a way explains why. It seems that it is on the surface: the capital markets were closed, and this is the result. But if you study the subject, it is not so obvious, said Oleg Solomin. If anyone and should be funded, it is the end user. After all, he makes the demand for goods and services, and not some phantom capital markets. "But since it is capital markets are partially formed on the same goods and services demand its speculative, in fact, the movement has caused unprecedented hitherto trend - says the expert - the trend on reducing demand." Demonstrates the development of this trend is the real estate sector, said Oleg Solomin. Whereas previously the area was primarily an object for their stay or receive rental income, the efforts of real estate capital markets has become an asset to the growth prospects and market value, the expert explains. In such a situation is detached from the real value of the so-called market price. Moreover, it becomes an independent entity. It came to that a little more - and would be structured, that is offered in the form of investment products, appliances and antiques, jokes Oleg Solomin. If you go back to real estate, this sector, fueled by strong cash flow, has spread its influence on other sectors, that is made by the "locomotive". Hence, the uptrend in the building materials and mineral resources, said Oleg Solomin. And then it leads to a cycle: the demand for property increases, further increasing the prices of construction materials and equipment, goods for repair, grow revenue market participants - increases the price of the property. Once the capital market is saying "enough", all described "pyramid collapses. "When you see this in real economic growth of the speculative component is extremely difficult - says Oleg Solomin. - You can say that it is, but to understand how much it will keep your system in toniziruemom state difficult." In any case, the investor is unlikely to want to miss "growing" trend, even if it can not 100% to assess the impact of speculative demand. On the dangers of crutches Logically Oleg Solomin, the growth of investment in the economy can not always be regarded as a boon. After all, it increases the speculative component, which is dangerous in itself. "This feeling that we want all the forces someone to please, but in reality only in order to sell something, and quickly, because we know about some skeletons in the closet, - said Oleg Solomin. - Investment attractiveness of a target for Russian government, for the Russians can not be. That goal should be the economic success. I doubt that the Europeans acute problem of attracting investors. I'm not sure that the Chinese cultivate such a direction. " Rely on foreign investment as a crutch, in economic development is very hard - after all this support can take at any moment, explains Oleg Solomin. Therefore the main task - a search of their own resources, the expert believes. Only here for now, according to many experts, fully shift to domestic sources of financing the Russian economy is not able to. "This requires not only state infusion in the real sector, but also creating the necessary infrastructure, legal support, educational programs for ordinary citizens - said Dmitry Baranov. - For example, in developed economies are very important people play the money invested by various funds in the real sector. " But in Russia the savings rate low, and the tendency of people to them are traditionally low, said Maria Subbotina. She suggests that this problem - the inheritance of socialism: the presence of public pension and other albeit substandard, but the guaranteed social benefits, has contributed to that generation who have completed their formation under socialism, there was virtually no incentive to save. Therefore, more than 62% of the population of Russia have minimal savings, but a qualitative leap in the level of savings may not occur earlier than in 10-15 years when the population structure will be dominated by citizens who were born and lived most of employable age are already in post-socialist realities, says Maria Subbotina. Of course, the acceleration of this process can give a reduction in mortality due to improved living standards, as well as state measures to stimulate private savings, such as co-financing of pensions, lower taxes in the stock market, increasing its accessibility and overall financial literacy. However, hardly any noticeable change in this area may occur in the next few months, while the real sector is already experiencing an acute shortage of loan funds. But the recovery of investment attractiveness, coupled with the opening of domestic sources of finance are able to improve the domestic economy, said Dmitry Baranov. That is, it turns out that foreign investment still will be needed in Russia. And if it will restore its image in the eyes of foreign investors? Basil Koltashov believes that it would depend on what the dynamics would be the domestic market. He is now rapidly weakening. If the government move to stimulate demand, then foreign investment will come, he said. But to the domestic market was not working on external manufacturers will need strong protection. Otherwise, the situation continues to deteriorate faster pace, experts predict. It is logical that the recession is always followed by recovery and growth. Therefore, even if the Russian economy can not avoid a recession, after a while the situation still must stabilize, and the investment attractiveness of Russia to recover, experts believe. "The pace of economic development in Russia before the crisis were among the most attractive in the world, and saturation of goods and services was not very big, even compared with the former Warsaw Pact countries - said Dmitry Baranov. - Why invest in the domestic economy, but not necessarily in the commodity sector, can yield good income. " The economy will become more healthy, optimistic outlook confirms Lyudmila Baranova, Dmitry Lebedev. She believes that the investment attractiveness of Russia did not disappear, but just the general situation in the world has become unstable. "Rely on domestic sources of financing the Russian economy would have already stated that correctly - says Lyudmila Lebedeva. - It is important that it is perceived as a real ability to solve most of the internal structural problems of its own resources. Now do so more effectively than trying to to restore the reserve to some high value targets. " Due to the orientation of the treasury for domestic resources for the Russian economy still basically means the absorption of resources of the state, experts state. "Financial support from the monetary authorities has played and will play a key role in 2009 - says Lyudmila Lebedeva. - But would like to see it was not just the funding and implementation of specific programs prepared." Financial resources of the state during infusion into the company from top to under any circumstances will not suffice to contain the crisis, continues to Basil Koltashov. In his view, the state must change its role in the economy and its economic policies. But Dmitry Baranov believes that government financial support can in this difficult time to help the economy. Its role will be to support business activity in sectors, stimulating demand for goods and services, working capital. Gosresursov enough, said Dmitry Baranov. Importantly, in his opinion that the state was able to stop in time and has not passed the border, where the funding could run the mechanism of hyperinflation. But one way or another without the intervention of the state of the Russian economy can not avoid recession. This was confirmed by all the interviewed experts. "Falling sales forces companies to look for the real sector funds for ongoing payments, and until the state high-interest subsidizes large structures - explains Basil Koltashov. Therefore, enterprises will increasingly need financial support until they come out on the normal operation with sales and revenues. At the moment, without government interference occur that can not. " Now, however, state interference is carried out is not very effective. Until the money to the real sector is not getting through, notes Michael Zak. However, if we consider the current situation in the light of the crisis, the positive changes are already visible, experts said. Gradually, some candidates for state funds will achieve their own and get the money. But now we can say that all funds not enough, I'm sure Michael Zak. Although he adds that this scenario of economic development is not so dramatic: "Just the strongest will survive and the largest organization of which depends not only on a large number of employees, but entire cities. Also, will those companies that are somehow tied to the business key enterprises in Russia. "