Volumes and dynamics of the market: they did not prevail until early 2008 the Russian market of bank deposits showed optimistic results: an impressive amount of funds deposited in banks with a combined annual growth rate of not less than 30%. On 1 January 2008 the volume of individual deposits in the accounts of commercial banks totaled 5.14 trillion. rubles. In this case, if we consider the individuals' funds in the total GDP and population income, then on 01/01/2008 they had reached 15,6% and 24,4% respectively. However, the outbreak in mid-2007 the global financial crisis has broken the ongoing development of the market: in 2008 for the first time in the past 4 years, the market experienced a substantial outflow of population. The September decline in the market at 1.5% was just at the starting point of the spread of the liquidity crisis in the Russian banking system: the outflow of funds occurred against the backdrop of defaults on the interbank market and the volatility of the stock exchanges, as well as negative news from the world's financial centers. At the same time, in our view, even the instability of the banking system outflow of deposits can be avoided. Market introduction of the first signs of potential investors panic is all the more surprising because from the beginning, the majority of Russian banks has intensified large-scale programs to raise public funds. What is the reason that the market could not resist? Factors discourage: that today impedes the development of the market, we distinguish two main factors inhibiting the active growth of the market: the lack of established culture of savings, as well as insufficient attention to the market by government agencies. The Russian economy is characterized by extremely low rate of savings inherent in the population. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in 2007 the population has saved only 8.9% of revenues, whereas a year earlier - 10,3%. In this case, fear is the fact that even these funds most of the misses in the banking system. Reduced propensity to save is also a good illustration of the dynamics of net household savings, which reflects the difference between retail loans and deposits per capita, referred to the per capita income. From 2005 to 2007. net savings of households in the banking system declined from 11.1% to 7.58%, despite the fact that per capita income increased annually (see Figure 2). Continued high rates of inflation and the failure of the Government plans to curb the rise in prices does not allow banks to actively build long funds: return of deposits continues to steadily lose the inflation rate. Partly negative role in reducing the rate of savings is itself the banking system: long-term availability of consumer credit provided for people to finally feel the benefits of a consumer society. For several years the growth rate of retail loans more than twice as likely to outperform growth rates of funds of the population that has increasingly exacerbates the imbalance between consumption and accumulation. As a result, the population is inherent in a relatively short planning horizon: 1 ruble current income households prefer the 7.5 future. Despite the steady trend towards longer maturities, the proportion of deposits placed with more than 3 years was 7% of all funds attracted people. Moreover, if even in 2003-2004. annual growth rate of these contributions exceeded 100%, while last year they only increased by 45%. Low levels of financial literacy enhances the negative effect of consumption preferences, significantly limiting the population's confidence in the banking system. Despite the fact that public authorities can effectively mask the real problems of the economy in crisis by effectively controlled by the central mass media, this advantage is not quite used to alert citizens about the possibilities of the existing banking system. Thus, according to a poll NAFI, only 12% of Russians are quite familiar with the CER among investors this percentage is also small - only 18%. With the bulk of the population knows nothing about the recent increase in the insured amount. As a result, distrust of the banking system as a whole. Competition: The Phantom stability on 1.10.2008 the top five on the volume of deposits formed Sberbank, VTB 24, Bank of Moscow, Rosbank and Raiffeisenbank (see Table 1). It is interesting that only 5 of the thirty largest banks have managed to ensure positive growth in September 2008: Sberbank, VTB 24, Agricultural Bank, Bank of St. Petersburg and Moscow Industrial Bank. Formed in the top five "champions" - three of the State Bank. Example MiNBa (almost a twofold increase) is not so revealing, given that deposit growth in September was to ensure the payment of large sums of related party transactions. Thus, the leaders - state-owned banks: they now be trusted by investors, and it is in their favor a redistribution of market share. While the first ten is stable, but in the coming year may well be significant castling associated with the movement of funds in "safe" state banks, as well as increased interest of other large banks in attracting retail deposits. Our assumptions are supported by the statistics: if the period 1.10.07-1.10.08 banks of the Top-10 increased by 38%, the increase in deposits of other banks from the top thirty was 52%. On the other hand, the market leader can take even less than the market in general, the decline in deposits. An example would be "MDM-Bank, for the first 2 years of returning to the Top 30 thanks precisely to the fact that in absolute terms, its losses were less than many market leaders. TOP-30 largest banks by assets under management for private individuals, on 10/01/2008 Name The volume of retail deposits, mln. Market share,% Growth rate of deposits, in% 09/01/2008 place in the ranking on 01.01.2008 On 1 Sberbank of Russia 2,971,231.4 50.4% 0.45% 1 2 VTB 24 250,047.4 4.2% 4.81% 2 3 The Bank of Moscow 127,796.2 2.2% -0.64% April 3 Raiffeisenbank Austria 108,395.3 1.8% -5.66% April 5 Rosbank 99,498.5 1.7% -14.45% July 6 GBD 94009 , 0 1,6% -3.06% May 7 Alfa-Bank 74,089.0 1.3% -3.68% August 8 URALSIB 72,622.2 1.2% -3.84% June 9 Bank "Revival" 54741 5 0,9% -2.78% October 9 MINB 49,946.6 0.8% 97.47% November 29 PSB 47,177.8 0.8% -3.65% December 1912 Bank St. Petersburg 47126, 1 0,8% 2,21% 16 13 Agricultural 41,616.8 0,7% 8,55% 20 14 URSA Bank 40,162.4 0.7% -0.82% November 15 Petrocommerce 38,312.2 0.7 % -5.71% 13 16 Citibank 32,476.3 0.6% -3.50% 15 17 Baltic Bank 32,030.5 0.5% -3.08% 17 18 Sobinbank 30,908.9 0.5% -1 82% 23 19 Unicredit Bank 30,387.9 0.5% -4.29% 19 20 Binbank 28,934.7 0.5% -0.26% March 21, 1921 Uniastrum Bank 28,355.8 0.5% -6.01% 18 22 Bank EEFC 27,231.0 0.5% -5.10% - 23 VTB North-West 26,468.1 0.4% -9.23% October 24 Bank Ak Bars 26,232.5 0.4% -2.5 % 22 25 Khanty-Mansiysk Bank 25,988.6 0.4% -1.33% 27 26 Nomos 25,171.8 0.4% -0.94 28 27 SNGB 25,040.7 0.4% -3.07 25 28 Bank "Globex" 24,372.6 0.4% -12.56% 26 29 MDM-BANK 24,229.4 0.4% 3 -2.40% - 30 "UBRD" 24,218.8 0.4% -1 15% - Source: Expert RA according to the Bank of Russia's regional markets: to unleash the potential growth market of deposits in the regions, as well as the banking system as a whole, characterized by a fairly high level of concentration. In 2007, 10 regions accounted for 65% of the total of deposits of the population (in 2006 - 64%). In this case, the main "Savings Center" is Moscow - the capital of banks (including branches and additional offices of regional banks) have accumulated 37% of retail deposits. Other regions on this background look rather sluggish: the second coming of Saint-Petersburg account for only 7% of the population. In general, geographical location of the branch network of banks in the geographic distribution of the population, while the concentration in the CFD main incomes allows banks to generate one branch cell is ten times more deposits than in other regions. At the same time, this distribution of contributions is not optimal: in our view, the banks did not fully exploit the potential of many regions outside the CFA. Despite comparable levels of income, population and a similar branch network and other federal districts seem at a loss for the banking system. Product specifications: that today in the demand structure Urgent contributions over the past five years, the proportion of long (over 1 year) deposits in the total amount of funds the population grew twice: if in 2002 they accounted for only 33% of the deposits, as of early 2008 year - 62,4%. At the same time, the placement of deposits with maturity over 3 years old accounted for only 7.3% of funds of the population. Parallel to this, the last two years has been a steady increase (by 40-50% per year) funds deposited are repayable on demand: as a result of spreading the culture of using plastic cards to people under the card projects payroll. Dimensional structure of the deposit market is dominated by large contributions: on 01/07/2008, more than one third (38.2%) of all involved public funds accounted for the contributions of more than 700 thousand rubles., 29.3% are deposits of 100 to 400 thousand rubles ., 23,5% - deposits to 100 thousand rubles. Contributions from 400 to 700 thousand rubles. provided only 8.6% of funds. Such "dimensional" hierarchy of deposits is characteristic of the entire banking system. At the same time, federal banks and banks with foreign capital more emphasis on large contributions, focusing primarily on wealthy investors. Currency composition of deposits Before 2008, the share of ruble deposits grew steadily from year to year and on 01.01.2008 has reached 87%: the sustainable strengthening of the ruble against the dollar in the past five years has identified the preferences of depositors to save it in local currency. 2008 suspended the movement in the desired direction: up to 8 months, the growth rate of deposits in rubles only slightly exceeded the corresponding figure for foreign currency deposits. A possible explanation for this "phenomenon" - the sustainable strengthening of the euro against the ruble against the backdrop of the rapid depreciation of the dollar. The current strengthening of the dollar against the ruble and the euro suggests a significant increase in demand from the population in the dollar-denominated deposits, as in the current environment, they are the most profitable financial instrument. Interest rate volatility in financial markets, difficulties in attracting foreign funding, as well as strong growth in prices in the country in late 2007 against the backdrop of heightened inflationary expectations of the population forcing banks to raise interest rates on long-ruble deposits: at the current level of interest rates compare with the situation in early 2007, the same time, a characteristic feature of the market is stable excess rates on deposits with a term of 181 days to 1 year and over the rates on long contributions. Beginning of 2008 was characterized by another important trend: rates for deposits in euros and dollars steadily declining. With the significant strengthening of the U.S. currency can be expected to further reduce interest rates. How to become a market leader: "recipe" for successful input of a broad range of deposit, taking into account the needs of any investor, and high quality relationships with our clients - are the key factors of leadership in the market today. This result shows the analysis quality of banks' deposit policy thirty-market leaders resulting model is fairly accurately reflects the current market situation. On the one hand, Sberbank of Russia, a leading participant in the Russian market deposits was only 24 seats out of 30. Leading bank in the market for a long time, largely supported by an extremely high level of public confidence, as well as the presence of even the most remote areas of the country. As a result, the Bank does not pay enough attention to either the quality of customer service, or develop a special policy for dealing with investors. On the other hand, the top-five form the largest banks, surely included in the top 10 in terms of deposits: "VTB 24, Bank of Moscow, Rosbank, Gazprombank, Alfa-Bank. Leader of the model is VTB-24: Bank scored the highest possible score. Such a result is well supported by the statistics: it is one of the few large banks, which in conditions of instability in the banking system was able to show good growth (4.8%). The model suggests several important conclusions: 1. Almost all banks have analyzed a well-balanced portfolio that combines the contributions focused on a variety of customer needs, 2. many banks have insufficient opportunities to use the integrated client service: only 16 out of 30 banks offer additional services within the escrow service, but most of these policies are limited to free or discounted produce plastic cards. Little attention is paid to the marketing program: they are used only 9 banks, especially large federal and regional banks, 3. market for bank deposits is still characterized by lack of high quality customer service. 12 out of 30 banks provide very limited information about the current lineup of deposits, or the data are difficult to understand the mass client. Only 20 banks offer services to remote maintenance, with a developed network of branches and additional offices in the whole sample is also considered as insufficient. Prospects and forecasts of market growth Sources: need support in the face of continuing financial instability for further market growth of deposits of some efforts of banks is not enough. There is need of cooperation: promoting the growth of savings requires banks, regulators and governors of team play. The key question - how to make contributions to the long-term source of funding? Initially, banks require deliberate action of the banks themselves. While significant government support for the market there is no problem - create a consumer image of the deposit as an efficient and at the same time simple and risk-free management tool within their means. Maximizing the appeal of the contribution should be, but the deposit must fulfill its primary task is to maintain savings, rather than act as a source of income. Compromise between attractiveness and profitability - the inclusion in the deposit agreement granting preferential opportunities for additional services. According to our estimates, the future market of deposits - is a complex product, combines the capabilities of the commission at the same time as the debit and credit transactions. The simplest example of such a strategy - a free credit card for opening the deposit - is being successfully implemented by some banks. In the next few years, the deposit of a standard means of savings should become a tool for managing the family budget. Complex products will not only increase the demand for non-deposit banking services, but also allow a short period of time to form a base of potential customers. State to save at any cost: the central task of government is to increase the savings rate in the economy and the formation of a savings culture in the society. In addition to macroeconomic stability and reduce inflation below the average rates on deposits, this would require a special system of measures which would have stimulated the creation of long-term savings and investment. First, you need to develop, within the banking system of long-range low-risk investment tools. As a solution can be offered the following possibilities: 1) establishing a system of housing savings deposits, and 2) the introduction of irrevocable fixed deposits, and 3) development of market savings certificates. Secondly, the need for more effective use of state machinery imputed savings. As an example of long-term investments flowing into the economy in this way can cause a program to encourage birth mothers through the transfer of funds (the so-called "mother's capital"). Subsidy mechanism has two undeniable advantages: first, subsidies are not immediately follow the final consumption, therefore, does not break up inflation, and secondly, being passed through the banking system, these resources could generate a significant portion of long-term liabilities, increasing the financial stability of banks. Finally, it is necessary to depart from the model of the consumer market due to containment of the State of unsecured lending to individuals through higher reserve requirements and the introduction of stringent requirements for risk management system of banks, working with individuals. rub. rub. rub. rub. rub. rub.
Volumes and dynamics of the market: they did not prevail until early 2008 the Russian market of bank deposits showed optimistic results: an impressive amount of funds deposited in banks with a combined annual growth rate of not less than 30%. On 1 January 2008 the volume of individual deposits in the accounts of commercial banks totaled 5.14 trillion. rubles. In this case, if we consider the individuals' funds in the total GDP and population income, then on 01/01/2008 they had reached 15,6% and 24,4% respectively. However, the outbreak in mid-2007 the global financial crisis has broken the ongoing development of the market: in 2008 for the first time in the past 4 years, the market experienced a substantial outflow of population. The September decline in the market at 1.5% was just at the starting point of the spread of the liquidity crisis in the Russian banking system: the outflow of funds occurred against the backdrop of defaults on the interbank market and the volatility of the stock exchanges, as well as negative news from the world's financial centers. At the same time, in our view, even the instability of the banking system outflow of deposits can be avoided. Market introduction of the first signs of potential investors panic is all the more surprising because from the beginning, the majority of Russian banks has intensified large-scale programs to raise public funds. What is the reason that the market could not resist? Factors discourage: that today impedes the development of the market, we distinguish two main factors inhibiting the active growth of the market: the lack of established culture of savings, as well as insufficient attention to the market by government agencies. The Russian economy is characterized by extremely low rate of savings inherent in the population. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in 2007 the population has saved only 8.9% of revenues, whereas a year earlier - 10,3%. In this case, fear is the fact that even these funds most of the misses in the banking system. Reduced propensity to save is also a good illustration of the dynamics of net household savings, which reflects the difference between retail loans and deposits per capita, referred to the per capita income. From 2005 to 2007. net savings of households in the banking system declined from 11.1% to 7.58%, despite the fact that per capita income increased annually (see Figure 2). Continued high rates of inflation and the failure of the Government plans to curb the rise in prices does not allow banks to actively build long funds: return of deposits continues to steadily lose the inflation rate. Partly negative role in reducing the rate of savings is itself the banking system: long-term availability of consumer credit provided for people to finally feel the benefits of a consumer society. For several years the growth rate of retail loans more than twice as likely to outperform growth rates of funds of the population that has increasingly exacerbates the imbalance between consumption and accumulation. As a result, the population is inherent in a relatively short planning horizon: 1 ruble current income households prefer the 7.5 future. Despite the steady trend towards longer maturities, the proportion of deposits placed with more than 3 years was 7% of all funds attracted people. Moreover, if even in 2003-2004. annual growth rate of these contributions exceeded 100%, while last year they only increased by 45%. Low levels of financial literacy enhances the negative effect of consumption preferences, significantly limiting the population's confidence in the banking system. Despite the fact that public authorities can effectively mask the real problems of the economy in crisis by effectively controlled by the central mass media, this advantage is not quite used to alert citizens about the possibilities of the existing banking system. Thus, according to a poll NAFI, only 12% of Russians are quite familiar with the CER among investors this percentage is also small - only 18%. With the bulk of the population knows nothing about the recent increase in the insured amount. As a result, distrust of the banking system as a whole. Competition: The Phantom stability on 1.10.2008 the top five on the volume of deposits formed Sberbank, VTB 24, Bank of Moscow, Rosbank and Raiffeisenbank (see Table 1). It is interesting that only 5 of the thirty largest banks have managed to ensure positive growth in September 2008: Sberbank, VTB 24, Agricultural Bank, Bank of St. Petersburg and Moscow Industrial Bank. Formed in the top five "champions" - three of the State Bank. Example MiNBa (almost a twofold increase) is not so revealing, given that deposit growth in September was to ensure the payment of large sums of related party transactions. Thus, the leaders - state-owned banks: they now be trusted by investors, and it is in their favor a redistribution of market share. While the first ten is stable, but in the coming year may well be significant castling associated with the movement of funds in "safe" state banks, as well as increased interest of other large banks in attracting retail deposits. Our assumptions are supported by the statistics: if the period 1.10.07-1.10.08 banks of the Top-10 increased by 38%, the increase in deposits of other banks from the top thirty was 52%. On the other hand, the market leader can take even less than the market in general, the decline in deposits. An example would be "MDM-Bank, for the first 2 years of returning to the Top 30 thanks precisely to the fact that in absolute terms, its losses were less than many market leaders. TOP-30 largest banks by assets under management for private individuals, on 10/01/2008 Name The volume of retail deposits, mln. Market share,% Growth rate of deposits, in% 09/01/2008 place in the ranking on 01.01.2008 On 1 Sberbank of Russia 2,971,231.4 50.4% 0.45% 1 2 VTB 24 250,047.4 4.2% 4.81% 2 3 The Bank of Moscow 127,796.2 2.2% -0.64% April 3 Raiffeisenbank Austria 108,395.3 1.8% -5.66% April 5 Rosbank 99,498.5 1.7% -14.45% July 6 GBD 94009 , 0 1,6% -3.06% May 7 Alfa-Bank 74,089.0 1.3% -3.68% August 8 URALSIB 72,622.2 1.2% -3.84% June 9 Bank "Revival" 54741 5 0,9% -2.78% October 9 MINB 49,946.6 0.8% 97.47% November 29 PSB 47,177.8 0.8% -3.65% December 1912 Bank St. Petersburg 47126, 1 0,8% 2,21% 16 13 Agricultural 41,616.8 0,7% 8,55% 20 14 URSA Bank 40,162.4 0.7% -0.82% November 15 Petrocommerce 38,312.2 0.7 % -5.71% 13 16 Citibank 32,476.3 0.6% -3.50% 15 17 Baltic Bank 32,030.5 0.5% -3.08% 17 18 Sobinbank 30,908.9 0.5% -1 82% 23 19 Unicredit Bank 30,387.9 0.5% -4.29% 19 20 Binbank 28,934.7 0.5% -0.26% March 21, 1921 Uniastrum Bank 28,355.8 0.5% -6.01% 18 22 Bank EEFC 27,231.0 0.5% -5.10% - 23 VTB North-West 26,468.1 0.4% -9.23% October 24 Bank Ak Bars 26,232.5 0.4% -2.5 % 22 25 Khanty-Mansiysk Bank 25,988.6 0.4% -1.33% 27 26 Nomos 25,171.8 0.4% -0.94 28 27 SNGB 25,040.7 0.4% -3.07 25 28 Bank "Globex" 24,372.6 0.4% -12.56% 26 29 MDM-BANK 24,229.4 0.4% 3 -2.40% - 30 "UBRD" 24,218.8 0.4% -1 15% - Source: Expert RA according to the Bank of Russia's regional markets: to unleash the potential growth market of deposits in the regions, as well as the banking system as a whole, characterized by a fairly high level of concentration. In 2007, 10 regions accounted for 65% of the total of deposits of the population (in 2006 - 64%). In this case, the main "Savings Center" is Moscow - the capital of banks (including branches and additional offices of regional banks) have accumulated 37% of retail deposits. Other regions on this background look rather sluggish: the second coming of Saint-Petersburg account for only 7% of the population. In general, geographical location of the branch network of banks in the geographic distribution of the population, while the concentration in the CFD main incomes allows banks to generate one branch cell is ten times more deposits than in other regions. At the same time, this distribution of contributions is not optimal: in our view, the banks did not fully exploit the potential of many regions outside the CFA. Despite comparable levels of income, population and a similar branch network and other federal districts seem at a loss for the banking system. Product specifications: that today in the demand structure Urgent contributions over the past five years, the proportion of long (over 1 year) deposits in the total amount of funds the population grew twice: if in 2002 they accounted for only 33% of the deposits, as of early 2008 year - 62,4%. At the same time, the placement of deposits with maturity over 3 years old accounted for only 7.3% of funds of the population. Parallel to this, the last two years has been a steady increase (by 40-50% per year) funds deposited are repayable on demand: as a result of spreading the culture of using plastic cards to people under the card projects payroll. Dimensional structure of the deposit market is dominated by large contributions: on 01/07/2008, more than one third (38.2%) of all involved public funds accounted for the contributions of more than 700 thousand rubles., 29.3% are deposits of 100 to 400 thousand rubles ., 23,5% - deposits to 100 thousand rubles. Contributions from 400 to 700 thousand rubles. provided only 8.6% of funds. Such "dimensional" hierarchy of deposits is characteristic of the entire banking system. At the same time, federal banks and banks with foreign capital more emphasis on large contributions, focusing primarily on wealthy investors. Currency composition of deposits Before 2008, the share of ruble deposits grew steadily from year to year and on 01.01.2008 has reached 87%: the sustainable strengthening of the ruble against the dollar in the past five years has identified the preferences of depositors to save it in local currency. 2008 suspended the movement in the desired direction: up to 8 months, the growth rate of deposits in rubles only slightly exceeded the corresponding figure for foreign currency deposits. A possible explanation for this "phenomenon" - the sustainable strengthening of the euro against the ruble against the backdrop of the rapid depreciation of the dollar. The current strengthening of the dollar against the ruble and the euro suggests a significant increase in demand from the population in the dollar-denominated deposits, as in the current environment, they are the most profitable financial instrument. Interest rate volatility in financial markets, difficulties in attracting foreign funding, as well as strong growth in prices in the country in late 2007 against the backdrop of heightened inflationary expectations of the population forcing banks to raise interest rates on long-ruble deposits: at the current level of interest rates compare with the situation in early 2007, the same time, a characteristic feature of the market is stable excess rates on deposits with a term of 181 days to 1 year and over the rates on long contributions. Beginning of 2008 was characterized by another important trend: rates for deposits in euros and dollars steadily declining. With the significant strengthening of the U.S. currency can be expected to further reduce interest rates. How to become a market leader: "recipe" for successful input of a broad range of deposit, taking into account the needs of any investor, and high quality relationships with our clients - are the key factors of leadership in the market today. This result shows the analysis quality of banks' deposit policy thirty-market leaders resulting model is fairly accurately reflects the current market situation. On the one hand, Sberbank of Russia, a leading participant in the Russian market deposits was only 24 seats out of 30. Leading bank in the market for a long time, largely supported by an extremely high level of public confidence, as well as the presence of even the most remote areas of the country. As a result, the Bank does not pay enough attention to either the quality of customer service, or develop a special policy for dealing with investors. On the other hand, the top-five form the largest banks, surely included in the top 10 in terms of deposits: "VTB 24, Bank of Moscow, Rosbank, Gazprombank, Alfa-Bank. Leader of the model is VTB-24: Bank scored the highest possible score. Such a result is well supported by the statistics: it is one of the few large banks, which in conditions of instability in the banking system was able to show good growth (4.8%). The model suggests several important conclusions: 1. Almost all banks have analyzed a well-balanced portfolio that combines the contributions focused on a variety of customer needs, 2. many banks have insufficient opportunities to use the integrated client service: only 16 out of 30 banks offer additional services within the escrow service, but most of these policies are limited to free or discounted produce plastic cards. Little attention is paid to the marketing program: they are used only 9 banks, especially large federal and regional banks, 3. market for bank deposits is still characterized by lack of high quality customer service. 12 out of 30 banks provide very limited information about the current lineup of deposits, or the data are difficult to understand the mass client. Only 20 banks offer services to remote maintenance, with a developed network of branches and additional offices in the whole sample is also considered as insufficient. Prospects and forecasts of market growth Sources: need support in the face of continuing financial instability for further market growth of deposits of some efforts of banks is not enough. There is need for cooperation: promoting the growth of savings requires banks, regulators and governors of team play. The key question - how to make contributions to the long-term source of funding? Initially, banks require deliberate action of the banks themselves. While significant government support for the market there is no problem - create a consumer image of the deposit as an efficient and at the same time simple and risk-free management tool within their means. Maximizing the appeal of the contribution should be, but the deposit must fulfill its primary task is to maintain savings, rather than act as a source of income. Compromise between attractiveness and profitability - the inclusion in the deposit agreement granting preferential opportunities for additional services. According to our estimates, the future market of deposits - is a complex product, combines the capabilities of the commission at the same time as the debit and credit transactions. The simplest example of such a strategy - a free credit card for opening the deposit - is being successfully implemented by some banks. In the next few years, the deposit of a standard means of savings should become a tool for managing the family budget. Complex products will not only increase the demand for non-deposit banking services, but also allow a short period of time to form a base of potential customers. State to save at any cost: the central task of government is to increase the savings rate in the economy and the formation of a savings culture in the society. In addition to macroeconomic stability and reduce inflation below the average rates on deposits, this would require a special system of measures which would have stimulated the creation of long-term savings and investment. First, you need to develop, within the banking system of long-range low-risk investment tools. As a solution can be offered the following possibilities: 1) establishing a system of housing savings deposits, and 2) the introduction of irrevocable fixed deposits, and 3) development of market savings certificates. Secondly, the need for more effective use of state machinery imputed savings. As an example of long-term investments flowing into the economy in this way can cause a program to encourage birth mothers through the transfer of funds (the so-called "mother's capital"). Subsidy mechanism has two undeniable advantages: first, subsidies are not immediately follow the final consumption, therefore, does not break up inflation, and secondly, being passed through the banking system, these resources could generate a significant portion of long-term liabilities, increasing the financial stability of banks. Finally, it is necessary to depart from the model of the consumer market due to containment of the State of unsecured lending to individuals through higher reserve requirements and the introduction of stringent requirements for risk management system of banks, working with individuals. Market forecast: make the right choice Further development scenarios of bank deposits will largely be determined by the governmental strategy in this segment. This year, no significant changes in government policy is not expected, therefore, the result will be fully determined by the success strategies of deposit banks. As a result, in 2008 we expect growth in the market only 19% (annualized) to 6.1 trillion. rub. in the event of a significant deterioration in the financial markets and the lack of effectiveness of government support of banks and real sector - only 15% to 5.9 trillion. rub. In this case, we expect to further strengthen competition in the market as a whole, and in the structure of the top30. Continue to grow the share of public banks, including through cross-flow of funds from private banks. Also, we predict some reshuffling in the top twenty at the expense of reducing the share of subsidiaries of foreign banks (notably Citibank), banks with capital insotrannogo (Rosbank) and large regional banks (URSA-Bank). Overall, we estimate that there are three possible options for further market development, directly related to government policies to stimulate private savings. The pessimistic scenario assumes that the state actually takes a passive strategy to support the market, limiting its role of macroeconomic regulation (suppression of inflation, support the real sector) and gradual increase of the sum insured. In the first scenario, by 2010 the market volume will amount to only 6.9 billion rubles., And by 2015 will reach a level no higher than 19.5 billion rubles. With a realistic scenario, the state carries out partial support for the market, solving the most pressing macroeconomic problems and stimulating the market mainly due to the use of imputed savings, introducing irrevocable deposit of the pension system and curb the growth in consumer lending. In this case, we assume a more active growth of the market after elimination of the financial crisis: the beginning of 2010 the market volume will amount to 7.3 trillion. rub., and the subsequent annual net growth rate of 24-28%, which would allow the market to grow to 23, 8 trillion. rub. 2015. The optimistic scenario assumes that the efforts of government agencies will be systemic, and supporting effective and valuable. Then, according to our forecasts, the market volume to reach 7.5 trillion 01.01.2010. rub. After 2010, growth rates quickly reach a level of 27-30%, resulting in 2015, the market will grow by almost 3.5 times to 26 trillion. rub. The difference in the outcome of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios - 6500000000000. rub. The price issue is great. But the choice to do today. Summary The market could not resist: the instability in the national banking system and the negative information from the world financial grounds violated the progressive increase in volume of attracted funds of the population. Market for bank deposits for the first time in the past four years has shown signs of panic depositors: the September decline of 1.5% was. We distinguish two main factors inhibiting the active growth of the market: the lack of established culture of savings and low levels of financial literacy, and insufficient attention to the market by government agencies. Russian citizens have a very short planning horizon: at the beginning of 2008, deposits with maturity more than 3 years old accounted for only 7.3% of market deposits. Having power over the media, the state successfully masks the real problems of the economy, preventing mass panic, but can not cope with the task of improving the financial literacy of their citizens. In addition to the creation of CERs over the past four years have not developed any really effective program to encourage savings. Does not bring stability and a weak macroeconomic policy: the sharp inflationary shocks increase inflation expectations. Syndrome of distrust: only 5 of the thirty largest banks have managed to ensure positive growth in September 2008 formed in the top five "champions" - three of the State Bank: they now rely on depositors, and it is in their favor a redistribution of market share. In the short run, state-owned banks could pay depositors panic to their advantage, but in the long run banks with participation of Russian private capital will lose just one of the most important resources to attract long-term diversified funding. Crisis as a stimulus for growth: in the current environment, private banks should review their deposit strategy. A balanced range of contributions, taking into account the needs of any customer, highly informative deposit policies as well as developing new regions - are the key factors that allow private banks to compete successfully in the market. Support is required: in the medium term, governments should pay particular attention to the introduction of a savings culture. Need to improve the sustainability of the resource base of the banking system requires banks, regulators and governmental bodies of team play. The key tasks of the state are: the creation of a national program to improve financial literacy, including through improved information background, as well as curbing consumer spending at the expense of discouraging citizens of unsecured lending to households. Price question - 6500000000000. rub.: Provided an active strategy of the state by 2015 the volume of attracted funds of the population will be 26 trillion. rub. otherwise - only 19.5 trillion. rub. Banks today can contribute to the acceleration of the process. After all, there are plenty to choose from.
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