Responding to questions from readers Gazety.Ru "the former head of the Central Bank gave their forecasts for economic crisis in Russia, the possible devaluation of the ruble and assessed the effectiveness of the actions of Russian authorities. Viktor Vladimirovich, how long in Russia that it is the financial and economic crisis and in what phase of the crisis we now? I would not call it economic and financial crisis, it's still the consequences of the globalization that is happening in the world in recent years. Naturally, our trade policies are linked with the ability to export energy in which there is a huge demand, including from the U.S.. Certainly, it affects the state of our budget and our balance of payments. Thank God, since 2004 we have a positive budget. Foreign exchange reserves have appeared, additional funds - the Ministry of Finance, from which the specialized funds - and it allows you to go more smoothly those crises that are now evident in all countries. And there they are known in the U.S.. Moreover, prominent economists (including American) said long ago that a crisis was inevitable. Since live all the time on credit from their own society and around the world, releasing a variety of monetary instruments in the form of a national currency in a cashless or cash, or in the form of treasury bonds, it is impossible. Sooner or later it will end badly. This, in essence, we now have arrived. Naturally, much of the economic situation in Russia, China, developing countries and countries in Latin America and even the euro area is related to the situation in the U.S.. So depending on how you will rectify the economic situation in the U.S., Europe, and what kind of actions will take our government - I mean the president, government, the Central Bank - will depend on how long and how deep this crisis will affect us. I think that if those "white spots" and "holes" in our economy, in any case not closing from the outside world, we can concentrate their efforts along with other CIS countries to solve their internal problems. A clear example to us is the policy of the U.S. administration in the 30 years after the profound crisis that has affected the U.S. in 29-33 years. They began to build roads - in order to create an infrastructure for a market that has developed, and as you know, unemployment was quite simple: forced to work in the construction of roads for a dollar a day. This was partially solve the problems that have arisen in the U.S.. What is Russia different? Bad roads too. Tip: You can do it, even if they are missing. Luzhkov in Moscow makes a wonderful journey toward Sheremetyeva. But after you pass the ring - the problem. And what good is that I rode to the ring quickly, and get to the Sheremetyevo can not. The road from Moscow to St. Petersburg. Should be done parallel to the road, bypassing the old, maybe paid. Needs to be done the way from Moscow to Minsk. No end. And, in my opinion, it need not be in state construction, may be private firms: Our and foreign. As possible with dates. I would like to understand: the peak of the financial crisis in Russia has a place now or will in the year of 2009, and 2009, the year in terms of economic and financial situation of the country will be what? / / Herald Apparently, called the current state of the stock market and banking sector so downright crisis would be wrong. The stock market is a little not my cup of tea. " But the stock market we have only developed in recent years. And it appear only in the main successful big players. A leading role is played by state-owned Gazprom, Rosneft, Sberbank and Vneshtorgbank. Also Gazprombank. I do not know who holds shares in it, but there also seems to various reputable organizations. Vneshekonombank, which seems to be not a bank, but the agency created specially for the country's economic development. As far as I am aware of the case, Gazprom's capitalization is now reduced to 5 times. This has affected the market. Hence, the monopolist's market capitalization has been over-hyped by the same Gazprom, or those advisers who advised them to leave their papers in domestic and foreign markets. But in any case, in my view, the significance of this organization for our economy, for our domestic consumption and for export, primarily to Europe - huge. Those players who have bought shares in energy and other state-owned companies, there is a possibility of two scenarios: one can rush to sell, and you can simply wait out the difficult times a year or two or three. And the share price may rise. Maybe to the same levels. This will depend on the international situation demand for energy. OPEC says they will try to keep prices at 70-80 dollars per barrel. What will the United States, it is difficult, given the upcoming elections, the new administration. Naturally, all this will affect the incomes of our energy companies, their payments to the budget and revenue that comes from the export of this commodity in the balance of payments. Somewhat more complicated case in the banking sector. And I would say not in that part of the banking sector, which is associated with the population. In this case, then the legislation that exists in the country, and that essentially guarantees the funds from the public accounts in the banking system (was 400000, now increased to 700). The bulk of the population holding their savings in 50 banks, bank accounts, unless of course it is not invested in stocks or in any other investment attraction in the form of real estate, villas, houses in the countryside. These 50 banks yavyalyayutsya members of the Deposit Insurance Agency. However, there is the population still fears. I do not think that there was at least one bank, which has safe deposit boxes, to at least one remains free. A month ago in a solid bank branch in Mytischi half of the cells was free. Now comes a man from the street, said: "The cells have? No? I went to another bank." There is a certain population, I would say that fear. And the fear may be partly as a belching 92-year, when policies of price liberalization inflation for the year was 2183%. Naturally, all the savings devalued. Because the population of jerks, unfortunately. In my opinion, the representatives of the Central Bank of very few speak to the press. This figure is silence, except for traditional peoples living in this country, distrust of authorities, creates a panic. The banks raise important issues. They are related to the fact that, firstly, they are less able to borrow any additional funds in international markets. And withdrawing from them, these funds are not from the fact that there is some element of distrust, or a political attitude after the events in the Caucasus. They are withdrawing money, because they themselves are forced to tighten belts. There are difficulties in the so-called interbank market, where banks provide each other resources in rubles. This action becomes more complex. The Bank believes I better not let him, though I will not earn that amount of money, but God knows that it can happen. This situation, when the interbank market as it does not give one or another bank to rely on ability to borrow funds in the market is beginning to put pressure on their lending policies. When a client who has completed the loan term, and he is ready to extinguish it, he said that life goes on, business goes on, I would like to get a new loan for a new term, the bank said in the famous song: Come back later. This, naturally, begins to affect the economic process. As far as I know, even simple things like support for mass communications, radio, TV becomes more complex, because advertising agencies say that in the coming months you will not have the volume of advertising that has been in the past. Certain problems have been experienced tour operators. Apparently, there will be problems in the market selling cars. I really do not think it will help solve the problem of traffic jams in Moscow, but, nevertheless, demand will probably lower prices and probably also will decline. Compared with 1998, now the country's crisis? You know, I would say that the 98-th year with the announcement of default, freezing payments to foreign agents, has been unexpectedly. Although some investors were getting out of the GKO market. But, as we know, were optimistic statements by the president on Friday, 14 August - "do not be afraid, nothing will happen." On Sunday evening the ministers are those who mourn with his manly Chubais reported that tomorrow will be a statement of the Government and the Central Bank. Dubinin was summoned from his vacation. Therefore, there were many unexpected. Naturally, with this announcement of default queue lined up at banks and in the Security Council were all about 2 months. CB every day they have redeemed a share of the GKO market in which they have invested, so that he could meet the requirements of the queue. At the end of the queue said: What are you waiting, come tomorrow. Then it was decided to securities that depositors of banks that found themselves in a difficult position, but it's mostly been the so-called oligarchic banks that belonged to "semibankirschine" that we had. That there be allowed to transfer their deposits to the Security Council, and eventually get their money. That is, although people were scared, but more or less with it as it sorted out. Yes, they were closed, I think, 13 or 14 banks on the definition of international experts who worked under the auspices of the World Bank. Naturally, if the main financial burden on himself was taking the state. With foreign investors were negotiated, a year and a half led Kasyanov (more Deputy Minister of Finance) and arranged for installment. Now the state has no foreign debt, is payable only at the state-owned corporation: Gazprom, Rosneft, Vneshtorgbank and Sberbank bit. In my opinion, there still was such, I would say shock origin. And now with this shock struggled. And here it turns out that like in our economy, everything is fine, the budget-deficit, balanced the positive payment, foreign exchange reserves of the world's third largest after Japan and China, the Ministry of Finance has specific development funds for future generations, which can also be used for domestic needs. I think now the problem may be deeper, in the sense that it may take a couple of years. If only we do not find themselves more determined development priorities, internal development. It was decided to address the problem of creating the possibility of construction of its passenger planes - it must be done to continue. Because Europe did not want the lack of competition and the need to purchase only American Boeing. She chipped in and created the Airbus, which competes with Boeing. Hence the question of what we were, say, 15 years to do nothing. And run this industry, and now cheshem occiput and begin to move. Where to watch the control of our government? Viktor, now there are rumors that there will be devalued. What do you think is now possible? You know, there are many such, I would say that the old terms to which the contemporary reality is irrelevant. Where a year ago vyaknuli - let's make the ruble freely convertible currency. But such a concept no longer exist in the international code of words and concepts. There is the notion of a freely usable currency, on which there is demand, which is used in the calculations, investments, etc. The devaluation - is, in essence, changing the gold content of currencies. And here - to change the national currency against other currencies. It usually occurs in certain crisis situations develop its own economy. It helps to redress the balance of payments, because imports become expensive, and you devaluation more likely to give its domestic industry producing the goods on the domestic market. We can say that the last devaluation occurred in 1998 when the Central Bank announced a currency corridor of a framework in which the ruble will move against the dollar in 1998. Then, after the default decision was made, that the corridor more ineffective, and the ruble began to seek its market relative to foreign currencies and depreciated, in my opinion, 3 times with small. Then it was possible to speak about the devaluation immediately after essentially CB's policy of floating exchange rate, the question is, what course should be attached. He was largely pegged to the dollar before the U.S., given the importance of international payments. 15 years ago 75% of payments made in U.S., now 45-50. A significant part of the calculation of a Greater Europe already in the euro. So now the Central Bank determines the exchange rate on Vol. currency basket - 45% of the dollar, euro 45% and 10% of the British pound. Therefore, when occurred in recent weeks to strengthen the dollar against the euro and the dollar is strengthening the ruble. Therefore, the rumors of a devaluation of whatever. Naturally, we can assume that, say, over the next few months will give 30 rubles per dollar. Do not you think that the price will be 90? I imagine even the worst nightmares I can not imagine this. Conditions for this. Where, in any form and in what currency you, Viktor Vladimirovich, keep savings? Already today I have received while working at the International Moscow Bank for 2.5 years, a fairly decent salary. This bank, in which 5 foreign shareholders, 4 of ours, and they pay, since the aliens worked, wages in dollars. We are in his bank account had, could keep the dollar could turn into rubles. And we stayed through the Sberbank, which has traditionally been. When I received the loan from the state or from a bank, can not remember when we built the garden houses, three thousand, I got to build a house, repaid the loan, but the account remained. In Yukos is also our management also pay in hard currency. And so, since the bulk of spending going on here, I had a dollar account and and ruble. Now I personally have a ruble account in the Security Council, he was in my deposit, plus a pension, to me the old age pension, 4,5 thousand rubles per month is charged. I have an account opened eight years ago in the "Raiffeisen" because he was the first release we have the card in euros. And since the mission went to Europe, it was more convenient. But the bill is small, somewhere about five thousand loose, updated. Therefore, the major savings for me and the wife in rubles. And anyway, I suppose, if you have a whole life was going here and costs are in rubles, and if the banking system more or less pays an adequate rate, what to twitch. Naturally, the additional expense of the dollar will not interfere if the family regularly goes on vacation, students abroad, then such account or a card in dollars does not hurt. President Putin, after the August 1998 default, when there was a five-time devaluation of the ruble and the dollar gave more than 30 rubles, you stated that the red its price is not more than 16 rubles. What will the dollar by the end of 2008? I'm not saying that the red cost him 16 rubles. There is such a thing as purchasing power parity. When taken some basket of goods, the most frequently used in the budgets of families in one or another country. So, if you need to compare the purchasing power parity, was then an example - 16 rubles. But we also know that a free currency market price or currency exchange rate is determined by supply and demand. Because otherwise, if we construct exchange rate policy on the basis of purchasing power, with its history of development of prices on certain products, subsidizing these costs from the budget, if it occurs, it will be a very inflexible system. And especially at a time when you have the economy does not remain as it gossistemy, mostly state-owned, and the market becomes free, the price is determined by supply and demand. In those circumstances, when there was a lack of ability to borrow money from abroad, the demand for currency, even with certain restrictions of currency legislation, has been upgraded. I'm not saying that the price unfair, I said that the price is determined by the conditions of the economy's foreign policy, in which the country fell. And now I do not know. I think with the price changes that have occurred over the years, it is clear that instead of 16 rubles. I do not know what policy will meet the Central Bank. How much of its foreign reserves, they will spend out of what had been announced, or spend extra to maintain the ruble. As you can imagine how people will behave? For example, I believe that appreciation of the dollar is linked not only to the fact that people are still confident that the dollar will always be the most common world currency, but linked in part to the fact that we simply have dramatically escalated a shortage of cash dollars. We have two weeks ago did not have enough rubles. That stock, which is other than money in the Cash, has proved inadequate. Do you agree with this? Correctly.
Responding to questions from readers Gazety.Ru "the former head of the Central Bank gave their forecasts for economic crisis in Russia, the possible devaluation of the ruble and assessed the effectiveness of the actions of Russian authorities. Viktor Vladimirovich, how long in Russia that it is the financial and economic crisis and in what phase of the crisis we now? I would not call it economic and financial crisis, it's still the consequences of the globalization that is happening in the world in recent years. Naturally, our trade policies are linked with the ability to export energy in which there is a huge demand, including from the U.S.. Certainly, it affects the state of our budget and our balance of payments. Thank God, since 2004 we have a positive budget. Foreign exchange reserves have appeared, additional funds - the Ministry of Finance, from which the specialized funds - and it allows you to go more smoothly those crises that are now evident in all countries. And there they are known in the U.S.. Moreover, prominent economists (including American) said long ago that a crisis was inevitable. Since live all the time on credit from their own society and around the world, releasing a variety of monetary instruments in the form of a national currency in a cashless or cash, or in the form of treasury bonds, it is impossible. Sooner or later it will end badly. This, in essence, we now have arrived. Naturally, much of the economic situation in Russia, China, developing countries and countries in Latin America and even the euro area is related to the situation in the U.S.. So depending on how you will rectify the economic situation in the U.S., Europe, and what kind of actions will take our government - I mean the president, government, the Central Bank - will depend on how long and how deep this crisis will affect us. I think that if those "white spots" and "holes" in our economy, in any case not closing from the outside world, we can concentrate their efforts along with other CIS countries to solve their internal problems. A clear example to us is the policy of the U.S. administration in the 30 years after the profound crisis that has affected the U.S. in 29-33 years. They began to build roads - in order to create an infrastructure for a market that has developed, and as you know, unemployment was quite simple: forced to work in the construction of roads for a dollar a day. This was partially solve the problems that have arisen in the U.S.. What is Russia different? Bad roads too. Tip: You can do it, even if they are missing. Luzhkov in Moscow makes a wonderful journey toward Sheremetyeva. But after you pass the ring - the problem. And what good is that I rode to the ring quickly, and get to the Sheremetyevo can not. The road from Moscow to St. Petersburg. Should be done parallel to the road, bypassing the old, maybe paid. Needs to be done the way from Moscow to Minsk. No end. And, in my opinion, it need not be in state construction, may be private firms: Our and foreign. As possible with dates. I would like to understand: the peak of the financial crisis in Russia has a place now or will in the year of 2009, and 2009, the year in terms of economic and financial situation of the country will be what? / / Herald Apparently, called the current state of the stock market and banking sector so downright crisis would be wrong. The stock market is a little not my cup of tea. " But the stock market we have only developed in recent years. And it appear only in the main successful big players. A leading role is played by state-owned Gazprom, Rosneft, Sberbank and Vneshtorgbank. Also Gazprombank. I do not know who holds shares in it, but there also seems to various reputable organizations. Vneshekonombank, which seems to be not a bank, but the agency created specially for the country's economic development. As far as I am aware of the case, Gazprom's capitalization is now reduced to 5 times. This has affected the market. Hence, the monopolist's market capitalization has been over-hyped by the same Gazprom, or those advisers who advised them to leave their papers in domestic and foreign markets. But in any case, in my view, the significance of this organization for our economy, for our domestic consumption and for export, primarily to Europe - huge. Those players who have bought shares in energy and other state-owned companies, there is a possibility of two scenarios: one can rush to sell, and you can simply wait out the difficult times a year or two or three. And the share price may rise. Maybe to the same levels. This will depend on the international situation demand for energy. OPEC says they will try to keep prices at 70-80 dollars per barrel. What will the United States, it is difficult, given the upcoming elections, the new administration. Naturally, all this will affect the incomes of our energy companies, their payments to the budget and revenue that comes from the export of this commodity in the balance of payments. Somewhat more complicated case in the banking sector. And I would say not in that part of the banking sector, which is associated with the population. In this case, then the legislation that exists in the country, and that essentially guarantees the funds from the public accounts in the banking system (was 400000, now increased to 700). The bulk of the population holding their savings in 50 banks, bank accounts, unless of course it is not invested in stocks or in any other investment attraction in the form of real estate, villas, houses in the countryside. These 50 banks yavyalyayutsya members of the Deposit Insurance Agency. However, there is the population still fears. I do not think that there was at least one bank, which has safe deposit boxes, to at least one remains free. A month ago in a solid bank branch in Mytischi half of the cells was free. Now comes a man from the street, said: "The cells have? No? I went to another bank." There is a certain population, I would say that fear. And the fear may be partly as a belching 92-year, when policies of price liberalization inflation for the year was 2183%. Naturally, all the savings devalued. Because the population of jerks, unfortunately. In my opinion, the representatives of the Central Bank of very few speak to the press. This figure is silence, except for traditional peoples living in this country, distrust of authorities, creates a panic. The banks raise important issues. They are related to the fact that, firstly, they are less able to borrow any additional funds in international markets. And withdrawing from them, these funds are not from the fact that there is some element of distrust, or a political attitude after the events in the Caucasus. They are withdrawing money, because they themselves are forced to tighten belts. There are difficulties in the so-called interbank market, where banks provide each other resources in rubles. This action becomes more complex. The Bank believes I better not let him, though I will not earn that amount of money, but God knows that it can happen. This situation, when the interbank market as it does not give one or another bank to rely on ability to borrow funds in the market is beginning to put pressure on their lending policies. When a client who has completed the loan term, and he is ready to extinguish it, he said that life goes on, business goes on, I would like to get a new loan for a new term, the bank said in the famous song: Come back later. This, naturally, begins to affect the economic process. As far as I know, even simple things like support for mass communications, radio, TV becomes more complex, because advertising agencies say that in the coming months you will not have the volume of advertising that has been in the past. Certain problems have been experienced tour operators. Apparently, there will be problems in the market selling cars. I really do not think it will help solve the problem of traffic jams in Moscow, but, nevertheless, demand will probably lower prices and probably also will decline. Compared with 1998, now the country's crisis? You know, I would say that the 98-th year with the announcement of default, freezing payments to foreign agents, has been unexpectedly. Although some investors were getting out of the GKO market. But, as we know, were optimistic statements by the president on Friday, 14 August - "do not be afraid, nothing will happen." On Sunday evening the ministers are those who mourn with his manly Chubais reported that tomorrow will be a statement of the Government and the Central Bank. Dubinin was summoned from his vacation. Therefore, there were many unexpected. Naturally, with this announcement of default queue lined up at banks and in the Security Council were all about 2 months. CB every day they have redeemed a share of the GKO market in which they have invested, so that he could meet the requirements of the queue. At the end of the queue said: What are you waiting, come tomorrow. Then it was decided to securities that depositors of banks that found themselves in a difficult position, but it's mostly been the so-called oligarchic banks that belonged to "semibankirschine" that we had. That there be allowed to transfer their deposits to the Security Council, and eventually get their money. That is, although people were scared, but more or less with it as it sorted out. Yes, they were closed, I think, 13 or 14 banks on the definition of international experts who worked under the auspices of the World Bank. Naturally, if the main financial burden on himself was taking the state. With foreign investors were negotiated, a year and a half led Kasyanov (more Deputy Minister of Finance) and arranged for installment. Now the state has no foreign debt, is payable only at the state-owned corporation: Gazprom, Rosneft, Vneshtorgbank and Sberbank bit. In my opinion, there still was such, I would say shock origin. And now with this shock struggled. And here it turns out that like in our economy, everything is fine, the budget-deficit, balanced the positive payment, foreign exchange reserves of the world's third largest after Japan and China, the Ministry of Finance has specific development funds for future generations, which can also be used for domestic needs. I think now the problem may be deeper, in the sense that it may take a couple of years. If only we do not find themselves more determined development priorities, internal development. It was decided to address the problem of creating the possibility of construction of its passenger planes - it must be done to continue. Because Europe did not want the lack of competition and the need to purchase only American Boeing. She chipped in and created the Airbus, which competes with Boeing. Hence the question of what we were, say, 15 years to do nothing. And run this industry, and now cheshem occiput and begin to move. Where to watch the control of our government? Viktor, now there are rumors that there will be devalued. What do you think is now possible? You know, there are many such, I would say that the old terms to which the contemporary reality is irrelevant. Where a year ago vyaknuli - let's make the ruble freely convertible currency. But such a concept no longer exist in the international code of words and concepts. There is the notion of a freely usable currency, on which there is demand, which is used in the calculations, investments, etc. The devaluation - is, in essence, changing the gold content of currencies. And here - to change the national currency against other currencies. It usually occurs in certain crisis situations develop its own economy. It helps to redress the balance of payments, because imports become expensive, and you devaluation more likely to give its domestic industry producing the goods on the domestic market. We can say that the last devaluation occurred in 1998 when the Central Bank announced a currency corridor of a framework in which the ruble will move against the dollar in 1998. Then, after the default decision was made, that the corridor more ineffective, and the ruble began to seek its market relative to foreign currencies and depreciated, in my opinion, 3 times with small. Then it was possible to speak about the devaluation immediately after essentially CB's policy of floating exchange rate, the question is, what course should be attached. He was largely pegged to the dollar before the U.S., given the importance of international payments. 15 years ago 75% of payments made in U.S., now 45-50. A significant part of the calculation of a Greater Europe already in the euro. So now the Central Bank determines the exchange rate on Vol. currency basket - 45% of the dollar, euro 45% and 10% of the British pound. Therefore, when occurred in recent weeks to strengthen the dollar against the euro and the dollar is strengthening the ruble. Therefore, the rumors of a devaluation of whatever. Naturally, we can assume that, say, over the next few months will give 30 rubles per dollar. Do not you think that the price will be 90? I imagine even the worst nightmares I can not imagine this. Conditions for this. Where, in any form and in what currency you, Viktor Vladimirovich, keep savings? Already today I have received while working at the International Moscow Bank for 2.5 years, a fairly decent salary. This bank, in which 5 foreign shareholders, 4 of ours, and they pay, since the aliens worked, wages in dollars. We are in his bank account had, could keep the dollar could turn into rubles. And we stayed through the Sberbank, which has traditionally been. When I received the loan from the state or from a bank, can not remember when we built the garden houses, three thousand, I got to build a house, repaid the loan, but the account remained. In Yukos is also our management also pay in hard currency. And so, since the bulk of spending going on here, I had a dollar account and and ruble. Now I personally have a ruble account in the Security Council, he was in my deposit, plus a pension, to me the old age pension, 4,5 thousand rubles per month is charged. I have an account opened eight years ago in the "Raiffeisen" because he was the first release we have the card in euros. And since the mission went to Europe, it was more convenient. But the bill is small, somewhere about five thousand loose, updated. Therefore, the major savings for me and the wife in rubles. And anyway, I suppose, if you have a whole life was going here and costs are in rubles, and if the banking system more or less pays an adequate rate, what to twitch. Naturally, the additional expense of the dollar will not interfere if the family regularly goes on vacation, students abroad, then such account or a card in dollars does not hurt. President Putin, after the August 1998 default, when there was a five-time devaluation of the ruble and the dollar gave more than 30 rubles, you stated that the red its price is not more than 16 rubles. What will the dollar by the end of 2008? I'm not saying that the red cost him 16 rubles. There is such a thing as purchasing power parity. When taken some basket of goods, the most frequently used in the budgets of families in one or another country. So, if you need to compare the purchasing power parity, was then an example - 16 rubles. But we also know that a free currency market price or currency exchange rate is determined by supply and demand. Because otherwise, if we construct exchange rate policy on the basis of purchasing power, with its history of development of prices on certain products, subsidizing these costs from the budget, if it occurs, it will be a very inflexible system. And especially at a time when you have the economy does not remain as it gossistemy, mostly state-owned, and the market becomes free, the price is determined by supply and demand. In those circumstances, when there was a lack of ability to borrow money from abroad, the demand for currency, even with certain restrictions of currency legislation, has been upgraded. I'm not saying that the price unfair, I said that the price is determined by the conditions of the economy's foreign policy, in which the country fell. And now I do not know. I think with the price changes that have occurred over the years, it is clear that instead of 16 rubles. I do not know what policy will meet the Central Bank. How much of its foreign reserves, they will spend out of what had been announced, or spend extra to maintain the ruble. As you can imagine how people will behave? For example, I believe that appreciation of the dollar is linked not only to the fact that people are still confident that the dollar will always be the most common world currency, but linked in part to the fact that we simply have dramatically escalated a shortage of cash dollars. We have two weeks ago did not have enough rubles. That stock, which is other than money in the Cash, has proved inadequate. Many people began to collect money from the bank. Maybe companies have often not pay through the banks, but directly. In some areas simply do not have enough rubles. Now the world is increasing trend of increased government regulation, government participation in equity of large companies, the forced nationalization of banks, etc. Do you think this is a temporary measure or a long-term trend, which in the coming years will only increase? Many economists believe (and, in principle, the statistics confirm this) that a private company in the long run more efficient government. Do you agree with this? I think this is a temporary phenomenon. If you recall such a simple thing, like the railways in Britain. One government made them private, the other party - nationalized. Because pure industry itself was then in a shaky state. In the end, we are in the 80 years has come to the conclusion that we need different forms of ownership, one of government property can not go. Again, if you recall the development of the United States, as there were no problems and theft, when they began to build railways. Therefore, in certain time periods of state intervention is necessary. And we see the clear example of the same United States now or in the years 29-33 of the crisis. This happens in other countries. It seems to be a solid pillar of the Swiss banking system as the Union Bank recently reeled, he was allocated special funds from the Swiss National Bank. There has not bought shares, but the funds have been allocated. Clear interference - a strong word, but a clear involvement of the state, the desire to solve a problem that can not only be natsproblemoy, but in general the image of Switzerland as a particular haven for those who want to hide their money from taxation. Therefore, such state interference is understandable and objectively correct. It is bad when our legislatures are so many smart guys that are starting to make amendments stupid. That was suggested in the Duma, the Central Bank can provide funds to needy banks on unsecured auctions. Correctly. Central Bank with its system of inspection of banks are well aware what a normal bank, which bank is a little unsteady on business grounds, and which generally untrustworthy. And why some fool in the Duma suggested that let's give those who have an international rating. And immediately at the first auction, when the Central Bank was willing to financially support more than 300 banks that had only 160. That's a lot of smart guys. Recently in the newspaper Vedomosti has information about the possible sale of state stakes in private companies at prices above their current market prices. Your opinion is whether the State in such a way to maintain business or, if already the owners of shares refer to the state with a proposal to buy back their shares, then to make such transactions appropriate for current market prices? I do not think it would be correct to state, even rescuing the bank, to pay them above market. This is completely wrong, I think that is bad when the government visor overseas banks at the Central Bank and pay them a price that the Central Bank came a loss on their assets. That's very badly, and knows about the auditors and the market. And then sold at a reduced price, the capitalization of Vneshtorgbank rose. This is the wrong action. In this case, too, if it comes to Rusal Oleg Deripaskki - State may, through their structures should raise stock prices and then buy. Otherwise, it looks like some kind of sawing something, or petty scam. Deripaska in recent years very actively led the game in international markets, trying to buy all sorts of companies in roughly the same type of business. Where it was possible, where no. Are the steps - I do not presume to comment on. Now all the oligarchs are queuing for gosdengami. And some are actually blackmailing power problems in banks, retailers, telecommunications, which can affect the population. It really is that bad or they are trying once again to solve their problems at the expense of the state? You know, the same Deripaska is one of the oligarchs, because he often approaches to finding solutions have been unusual for an ordinary business and used personal communication. We know who is the wife of Mr Deripaska. Know its a long kinship with all sorts of structures. In this case I am referring not only to the presidential administration. To us in the International Moscow Bank came he did with other "comrades" when searching for credit support. In one of his ventures, he was quite successful, then began to feel that everything is permitted, to speak about him personally. Just like other comrades. I'm pretty respectful attitude towards Khodorkovsky, but he has also appeared in 2003, some dizziness from success. It was the others, so to speak, mythical figures. So I can not deny that now, too, are trying to use some old links to their own problems to solve the most simple way. It requires a certain conclusiveness. Question - who will control how objectively the money given to market participants? Or was it some kind of cabal, a certain relation to a particular person or an organization? And what structure should control? You know, it might be, should not be a single structure. In many cases, a role of this kind of control can play a Chamber. It is also the auditor of the Central Bank on its international reserves. There foreign auditors are not allowed. Plus, certain things they must do on your status. For certain things, say, lending Vnesheconombank banking system, financial institutions for repayment of liabilities occurring can watch the Central Bank and Finance Ministry. You can not simply allocate the money, what they want - then do it. Just as now, it is possible that in every major commercial bank must have on a daily basis, but temporarily, inspectors from the Central Bank. I was told such a case: a bank customer has received for construction at its own expense in a commercial bank from the customer 200 million rubles. Then the next day he had to transfer 17 million for something. Banks are paying through the settlement with the municipal government. Payments are five flights, and even after working day late payments are made. And, as an account of this bank was formed in PG overdraft, they missed a small thing, but this payment has not missed the money already in the account was not. In these circumstances, the Central Bank would have to watch more carefully what the bank pays and sometimes by its rules to recede. A failure of payment has led to the loss of a client. Partly wine bank. But at the branch where he worked, they do not know the amount of each payment of all branches of the bank in Moscow and Moscow region. Here, the technical glitch that leads to a broken relationship bank and the customer. Viktor, who of our business include our homegrown Buffett. Are there some among them who foresaw the impending crisis and promptly took protective measures? I am not going to allocate someone, it does not necessarily have to be a businessman size Buffett. Honestly, I do not know. Prokhorov also divided yet with Potanin, and not entirely shared. The press had reports that someone has something to overestimates. I would say that from this pair of these twins, I would always more preferably treated to Prokhorov. No matter what he played basketball for CSKA. And no matter what he was finishing Finakademii along with Kozlov. And he once more people that walked the earth, and Potanin was secretary of the Komsomol organization. It may therefore be it, I just do not have information as I can. Was going to buy expensive imported camera and some other equipment. Do you think this is worth doing now or you may fall in prices for imported goods are not necessities? I mean high quality household appliances, computers, cameras, etc. I read a lot of information that such imports could disappear completely for reasons related to the crisis. You know, I think that still happens today in the major manufacturer of various kinds of technical things a certain saturation of the market production. And willy-nilly, I think companies will be forced to make some reasonable discount. Therefore, if the dream was to buy a computer, then maybe a couple of months and worth the wait. Should I now buy an apartment? The question, in my view, depends on at what level the apartment brandishing a man. If luxury housing - hardly, it is better to wait. And if odnushku, it may be, big discounts and never will. This is a very difficult market. And again, here comes some talk that the authorities do not want to be some sort of a freezing, preservation of housing in particular, and will somehow keep buying apartments. The question, at what price. Will they say: that's show me the cost of the apartment and what the normal and abnormal profit you would get? By now, the cost of purchase, and profit a normal patch, maybe a couple of years. In the U.S., the mortgage company was created, in my opinion, in the 36 th year. With the market of consumer lending (including mortgage and small) that will occur? The rate of increase, because, first, will try to pay a decent rate on the accounts of the population. Companies keep a little money. A rise there rises the cost of credit. Will continue to depend on the level of inflation. I understand that during the six months of 2008, prices for basic goods that are consumed by households, rose by 20 percent. While core inflation - 11. How the crisis will affect society? Expect a growth of protest moods, change attitudes of the people in power, the election? We have, thank God, the elections on November 4. You know, I think a lot will depend on how all these decisions have already - maybe they like this Vasilisa the Beautiful in the arm still has something - they will be executed. How much will still be enough maintained no treatment, and outreach. I do not understand why sit there and say nothing. A broadcasts only the president and prime minister. On whom he will then pass the buck? He did not say that. States or even Europe - where the Minister of Finance and Federal Reserve chairman said, and the president promekal two words and left. We have some reason people are responsible enough talking. And hence there are any concerns. The question of the denomination - a simple question to answer. Kopek at face value less than its cost of production. Just do not you print that penny, not stamped. And everyone enjoyed raise prices slightly. Say it all. Since banks do not in fact happen. The word 'calm the population. And when such things are covered up. Well, $ 50 billion to banks and other financial institutions. And how much should the short-term market, why do not you think? In your opinion, who should now be a crisis manager? Shuvalov, Putin, Medvedev, Ignatieff? Copes whether the Prime Minister with the situation? Well, if he fails, the president would have it, probably dismissed, I think so. There's another thing that Putin may have some such statements, inherent, apparently, his first education when he said: "We say the Central Bank." In general, I think they are still in the right direction. What could be done, I did not mean to walk away from the issue, I'm somewhat difficult to judge because I do not know where the devil hides. Did not show whether the current situation is that our exchange system is not perfect, is not whether to create a single megabirzhi in the country? You know, it seems to be yet, "a boy in short pants", for me personally. Although I've never left unaddressed, I have no doubt. Should I do have one area or not - may be, but it seems to owe more to address those who in these exchanges is the major stakeholders and those federal agencies that are responsible for it. Do you follow a court in the case of Alexander Kozlov. Are you familiar with Frenkel? Your opinion about the process and his helper? I followed him not really follow, in my opinion, he still goes on behind closed doors, there is information about some private investigations. In my opinion, I was surprised right away that Kozlov came out of the sports complex one. Because he is a game of football, never taking a shower, and the driver also played with him. Kozlov came out first, to chat, then after 5-7 minutes gone, gone. And when they came together, approached the car, why not shot before? Then all of these activities around the crime scene, read, do not remember, too, look like something very suspicious. And in general, to some extent the rights Medvedev PA saying that Frenkel when he was studying, in my opinion, not the man who would go to such crimes. But in general I do not believe our justice. God forbid, if the promises and desires of the current president to restore or establish the rule of law in the country, will come true. Dmitry Medvedev said recently that the crisis could help Russia to take advantage of the current situation and develop some sectors of the economy, which in dependence on the oil price did not develop. The same is confirmed by many experts: You can use the crisis as an opportunity for a breakthrough. In your opinion, such a possibility is really there? I would not say it will take. I would say that the crisis might force us to make better rational decisions than ever before. Here's an American chicken, which we buy, why we sell only the wings and legs, and breast eat yourself: why we can not make chicken? There are problems with wood processing. Here in Buryatia we were doing the same question about the production of fuel wood for homes instead of fuel oil, gas, electricity and coal. This product is made from sawdust and mixed with certain chemicals. It is now in great demand in Europe. And for some reason we do not think about it, wood is often logs Ammunition in Finland is not known in what quantities. Therefore, in principle, I believe we should use here these opportunities that arise and that lead people into economic bodies, such as in the leading countries of the free market, to think a little differently, and do their own economies. I would advise readers to read carefully those materials that appear on the Internet, as I understand it, and do not believe everything. As a something: for the transfer of "People want to know," said one Khazin: but we need so many banks do not have to let it be five banks. How can we allow such people with such statements? As the person will think? Go take the money and put it in a glass jar. Information should be diverse, but it should also be responsible. And I wished it would be the editorial board.
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