Negative news tumbled oil

Oil prices in Asian markets today dropped below $ 80 a barrel. This is due to several reasons. According to the American Petroleum Institute reserves of "black gold" in the United States for the week ending January 8, unexpectedly rose by experts 1,2 million barrels to 330.107 million barrels. Experts previously interviewed by the news agency Reuters had expected gasoline inventories to grow by 1.2 million barrels. While according to the institute, the reserves increased by 6.8 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose 3.6 million barrels. Meanwhile, the projected decrease of 1.8 million. "These findings may indicate that investors have to part with the hope of a quick recovery in demand for energy, and hence for economic recovery," - says Bank.ru Vyacheslav Bunko, analyst with Aton. " "Today at 18:30 U.S. Department of Energy will publish its data. They may not coincide with the statistics institute. The fact that the Institute of Energy data are sent on request. And in a Department of Energy has various storage guide statistics is mandatory. Therefore, until now, the conclusions too early "- like an expert. In addition, he said, tomorrow will be a press conference of the American Board of Trade commodity futures. It will probably be announced the introduction of limits on the position of speculators. "Now the oil market speculators are five times more than the actual sales", - said Bunko. "Maybe the market will limit, for example, the ratio of sellers and speculators should not be less than 1 to 3" - explains the analyst. As the main tool used to speculate the so-called non deliverable futures. Futures - a contract of sale of an asset in a quantity and at a specified future date at an agreed price today. The meaning of this contract is that it will insure against unexpected price change in the future. According to one of the species of this tool, you must deliver the goods within a specified period of time. But in most of the contracts upon expiration of their term is cash. Paper holder pays or receives the difference between the price specified in the contract and market price. For example, right now, market participants are to increase the price of oil. Accordingly, they sign contracts, for example, in March with a price of 90 dollars per barrel. If the price is above $ 90, the speculators make a profit, the difference between the actual price in March and that which is provided in the contract. Futures contracts can be for a week, day, month, etc. "Technically, the profiteers of the other players can be separated," - says the analyst of bank "Trust" Vladimir Bragin. "Speculators will never deliver the underlying asset, the same oil. This tool makes the market volatile Bole, flexible. Now a lot of offers "to pour sand in the market mechanism. The idea is that the changes were not so quickly and were more predictable. In this series - a tax on cross-border operations, which will hinder the free movement of capital from one country to another. In the trajectory refers to the fact that the very possibility of a futures contract leads to an increase in asset price. In other words, it promotes the formation of a bubble in financial markets, where prices are not fundamentally justified. It is believed that the real price of oil today - $ 50 per barrel. And the current market price - $ 80. Argues that it is speculative. Hence the desire to regulate the market. But, first, to talk about some real price is difficult. Secondly, futures markets provide liquidity, cash. If you remove the speculative capital from the market, prices are likely to fall. But it is hardly possible to say how much. Do sellers of oil will increase costs. Generally, it is very difficult to calculate the consequences of this step. In addition, speculation by large U.S. banks, investment companies, which have large lobbying resource. Therefore unlikely to be dramatic action by the Commission, most likely, they will be slow and cautious ", - the expert explains. Many experts link the drop in oil prices to the decisions of the Central Bank of China. Yesterday it was announced to raise standards for Chinese banks' reserves at 0.5%. In addition, China's central bank has posted an annual bill at a higher rate, causing a three-month growth rates in the interbank lending market. "Today, investors see China as the locomotive of world economy", - said Vladimir Bragin. It has spawned the hope that almost he has to pull the world economy from the crisis. "The Chinese economy has been significant growth. The country attracts a large amount of capital, including speculative. And it's dangerous. As unfounded, speculative rise in real estate, stocks, may result in collapse. Authorities are trying to cool the excess demand for Chinese assets. But, in my opinion, this is not very significant action. Anyway, the threat to the recovery of the real sector of the economy they do not carry "- the expert believes the Trust. Still, investors fear that the active struggle of Chinese authorities to inflation would slow economic growth in the country and the world economy as a whole, experts say "PSB". The cost of oil is now putting pressure not just one specific news, but some stresses Bragin. Very bad that this news coincided came in the same time. The experts draw attention to the disappointing quarterly reports one of the world's largest metals companies Alcoa and the U.S. corporation, developer, publisher and distributor of computer video games Electronic Arts. Not pleased with the market participants and makrostatistika the United States. In November, the country's budget deficit unexpectedly rose by $ 3.46 billion - to $ 36.40 billion in anticipation of growth only on $ 1.86 billion - to $ 34.8 billion more, according to a report published yesterday the European Commission, the situation in Greece is in much worse shape than previously thought. "The European Commission questioned the statistics on Greece's budget deficit, which according to latest figures amounted to 12,7% of GDP, though the maximum allowed for eurozone rate of 3%. The European Commission believes that the data of the statistical service of Greece, may be incorrect, as the Greek budget deficit is much larger than previously reported, "- says the review" Prmsvyazbanka unexpectedly worsened the mood of consumers in the U.S., consumer confidence in the U.S., calculated by ABC News, sharply fell the week before -47 points from -41 points. In general, negative enough. "The probability of falling oil prices below $ 80 a barrel is high, - supposes Vyacheslav Bunko. "But even if the price drop to $ 70 a barrel - it's not terrible" - soothes Bragin. "The price of oil at 65-70 dollars per barrel is comfortable for Russia", - he concludes.