According to the well-known U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs, the price of oil by 2011 may reach a figure close to the value of $ 200 per barrel. This will result in shortage of raw materials. Bank experts read that demand for hydrocarbons will soon be restored, and the proposal will be low. Since the crisis the oil business was forced to abandon many investment projects. At this point, the value of "black gold" slightly reduced. For example, the price of petroleum "basket" of OPEC (OPEC Reference Basket of crudes) yesterday declined to 75.8 dollar per barrel compared to 76.56 dollars the previous day's trading. Recall that a record of "basket" was established on 3 July 2008, when the index rose to 140.73 dollars per barrel. While the average price in 2009 was 61.06 dollars per barrel. Now price is the OPEC basket is defined as the average index of physical prices following oil prices, crude cartel countries: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Girassol (Angola), Oriente (Ecuador), Iran Heavy (Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and BCF 17 (Venezuela). "Continued decline in oil quotes, notes last week, was a consequence of the intentions of the Chinese authorities to raise banks' reserve requirements to curb lending in the country" - note the experts "PSB". In turn, the retreat of winter frosts in the U.S. and significantly propped up the dollar on Forex, along with e more significant than expected increase in stocks of petroleum products in the United States were also negative factors for the market of "black gold". But most analysts are convinced that in the medium term oil price will not be affected. "The world oil market in 2010, we are likely waiting for the absence of any serious disruption, which were typical for 2008-2009. Especially for the first half of 2009, we believe that on the one hand, oil consumption in 2010 slightly increase. On the other hand, the supply of oil will increase due to the fact that OPEC members will exceed their quotas and production in Russia will grow. In general, are unlikely to be any dramatic changes, so the price of oil if it falls, because of the actions of the American Federal Reserve, which may in the end of the year may raise interest rates ", - says Alexei Kokin analyst at IFC Metropol. One of the main factors which will affect the commodity markets, - the restoration of real-world demand for oil. World oil demand this year will reach the highest level since 2007 First of all, this happens due to increased consumption in Asia. So says the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency revised its growth forecast for global oil demand this year upward by 10 thousand barrels per day. Now it expects that demand in 2010 will rise by 1.4 million barrels per day, reports Reuters. The demand will amount to 86.3 million barrels per day, whereas in 2007 it reached 86.5 million barrels per day. Moreover, in 2011, the agency expects to grow by another 1 million barrels per day. Among the positive developments for the oil market experts also pay attention to the increase in fuel imports by China in the current year by 15%. In addition, most likely, will remain virtually unchanged OPEC quota, which would limit the market supply, and accordingly, the support price. In any case, it is hoped many of the players. «Goldman Sachs predicts very strong growth in oil demand. Its experts believe Iraq in 2015 will increase hydrocarbon production to 4 million barrels per day. At the same time, they are convinced that such growth is not enough, and Baghdad is necessary to achieve improvement rate of up to 6 million barrels. Since, according to analysts the bank in the world would be a very strong oil shortage. But, in my opinion, it is too early to talk about such a substantial increase in demand ", - says Vitaly Gromadin, an analyst at Arbat Capital. "Actually, it stabilizes until 2013. So that $ 200 in 2011 - a very dubious prognosis. The Bank, in its review will allocate 280 major projects to develop and assimilate deposits, which in his opinion, could face the problem of underfunding. There is a risk that the operators of these projects will not have time to build capacity and to begin production in the previously stated date. Indeed, in 2009, oil companies have had much to cut their investment programs. In addition, investors negatively influenced by developments in some mills. For example, the nationalization in Venezuela. But the key question is how to grow the economy after the crisis? Now the growth when it is supported artificially, it is stimulated. What will happen when the incentive programs will be phased out? Perhaps we will find ourselves in a depression, for example, for 2 years. Also, remember the intention of many countries to improve energy efficiency. In principle, almost all experts believe that within the next year or two, prices will rise. In particular, Deutsche Bank also forecasts that in 2012 the value of "black gold" will be above $ 100 a barrel. A couple of years will peak when the price reached its peak, experts say. Then they begin to decline. And the main reason for this decline will be the development of technologies for using alternative energy sources. Of course, it takes a long time. But the transition of developed countries on bio-ethanol and other alternative fuels is inevitable. Even Saudi Arabia is investing money from the oil windfall to companies that are developing similar technologies, "- says the expert. In general, analysts are advised to refer to the forecast of investment banks with cautious skepticism. For example, Goldman Sachs itself trades physical oil. Therefore, there to have spoken, yet there is a conflict of interest. So it is better to focus on forecasts of independent experts.
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