What do bankers and other market participants on the hottest events of the economy that occurred in a week? On the most important event in the banking industry on this question, researchers asked to respond to employees of domestic financial institutions. As a result, we found out that most of the respondents said those lower rates on loans and mortgages (16%), another 13% were in favor of lowering the refinancing rate in May 2010, 12% - for a criminal case against 2 top managers of commercial banks, 9% supported increasing the minimum size of banks' capital to 90 million rubles, 8% - increase in the forecast of inflation in Russia, 6% - lower interest rates on deposits and discussion of the development strategy of the banking sector in 2011-2015. etc. Oleg Anisimov, vice president of TCS Bank: Perhaps the survey results are adequate. A year has passed quietly for the banking sector, so the main events are pretty humdrum. But the main result of the year, in my opinion, is the sharp decline in interest rates on deposits of individuals. Actually, we predicted a year ago and encouraged people to open long replenish the deposit to secure the very same, high yield. Among all the same marked response probably still need a license revocation for "Mezhprombank, is quite large and old bank. Sergei Tsvetik, director of regional business "Sotsgorbank": In my opinion, the most significant event in the banking sector in 2010 was the decrease in refinancing. Let's see what will happen next year, but it seems to me that the rate of increase is unprofitable so far. On New Year's holidays, and economic damage survey conducted by the audit and consulting company FBK, in 2011, losing the economy of the 10-day vacation would amount to 840 billion rubles. That is more than 140 billion rubles more than in the past winter holidays. Do you think that whether Russia can afford such a long vacation? Sergei Vasiliev, head of equity management of the bank "Express-credit": a clear answer to this question is quite difficult. Of course, every year during the New Year holidays the Russian economy loses billions of rubles, which is an unaffordable luxury, especially in times of economic instability. But, on the other hand, our population is so used to "New Year's holidays" that takes them for granted. Refuse from the same additional output would be quite problematic. In my opinion, the best option would be to install 2.3 holiday weekend, it would not only reduce economic losses, but also reduce the negative consequences of the "New Year's drinking spree" for the health of Russians. Elena Strelkov, president of anesthesia Audit: In fact, the losses from a 10-day holiday, without taking into account inflation has remained at approximately the same level. If global look at the relationship of GDP and the duration of the Christmas holidays, it's worth, in the first place, think about the simple worker who considers this weekend's well-deserved vacation. Reduce holiday weekend may lead to dissatisfaction of citizens to affect the atmosphere in the team, and as a consequence, and the company itself. Enterprise as to avoid significant loss of income, should be competent and to plan the production calendar. Previous attempts by the authorities to change the schedule of holidays in the year were unsuccessful. Especially with the latest sentiment of the people, should not infringe on traditional civil servants and workers in the long-awaited weekend. From a psychological point of view - it would be a lot of stress. Andrei Zakharov, analyst at investment company "Anchor Invest: I believe that the evaluation of FBK is definitely overpriced. Indeed, in Russia 10-day vacations are unreasonably long. In connection with the state policy to increase the tax burden and the State Duma of the initiative to introduce 60-hour working week, a draft law on the reduction of holidays to 5 days would be very helpful. Besides, I think that a plan to reduce the January holidays at least twice would appeal to the authorities and citizens of the Russian Federation. The oscillation of the ruble According to the department head, Institute of World Economy and International Relations James Mirkin, with the continuing instability in the global economy, the Russian national currency next year, can swim in the corridor from 25 to 40 rubles. per dollar. Olga Efremova, an analyst at NOMOS-BANK ": Investors will have to accept the increased volatility of the ruble in the next year. This will not be able to avoid because of the high dependence of the Russian currency on many factors, mainly the external environment, which will continue to remain very volatile. Fluctuations in the ruble corridor, in our view, will be from 29 rubles to 32 rubles., And in that case would not be of any force majeure. Part exchange savings we adhere to the principles of diversification, which in the current unstable situation, would neutralize the risks of fluctuations. But the persistent difference rates, as well as the present trend in the strengthening of the ruble, which, as we believe, next year can proceed not only "natural" way, but with the active "support" the Central Bank, stress the benefits of investing in rubles. Andrei Zakharov, analyst at investment company "Anchor Invest: Probability conservation rate USD / RUB USD 30-38 in the corridor. has the potential to be justified. Provided that Russia's budget surplus may be at oil prices above U.S. $ 100 per barrel and increasing the tax burden on business in 2011, the probability of growth of the ruble against the dollar to 25-27 rubles rather low. In addition, the outlook for capital flows into Russia in 2011. also promotes the growth of the ruble against the U.S. dollar. Most of the factors: the high level of public spending, rising budget deficit in the Russian Federation, indicate a rise in U.S. currency to Russian ruble. Perhaps one of the methods to reduce the budget deficit or save it in the forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation will be "soft" currency devaluation to the level of 33-35 rubles per dollar. Magomed Magomedov, Advisor to the Chairman of the Board Bank for Development-Capital ": Making predictions in the post-crisis period - a thankless job. The probability of global shocks in an election year in Russia and the U.S. is unlikely. In my opinion, the dollar will slowly strengthen against major currencies, but the strengthening of the ruble would be virtually invisible in connection with the strengthening of the ruble against the currency basket. Therefore, I am inclined to the forecast rate in the range of 29,5-32 rubles per dollar. On the way of investment professionals from the National Agency for Financial Studies (NAFI) to determine the most effective and reliable ways to invest money. It turned out that the most reliable type of investment for the Russians is to purchase real estate (48%), bank deposits (28%), buying gold and jewelry (21%), savings in rubles (12%) and U.S. (7%). Fewer total votes were opening an account at a commercial bank (4%), buying the shares (5%) and acquisition of investment shares (2%). Andrei Zakharov, analyst at investment company "Anchor Invest: Russia has traditionally been developed by the conservative method of investment funds, namely, bank deposits and real estate purchase. It is interesting to note in the study NAFI that Russian citizens have to pay for tools such as gold, precious coins and jewelry (21%). In India, for example, the share of gold and precious metals is about 80% of the total household savings, and 5-10% - it's bank deposits and stocks. The total volume of gold, which accounts for all households in India, $ 800 billion in Russia in 2010 as a trend buying of gold bullion and silver coins. I believe that in 2011, profitable tools for investment will remain gold, precious coins and bank deposits in U.S. dollars. Another promising financial tool for experienced investors could be structured products linked to long-term investments in such crops as wheat, corn, beans, sugar, coffee, cocoa and cotton. Magomed Magomedov, Advisor to the Chairman of the Board Bank for Development-Capital ": I would like to share of foreign investment on terms, privacy, liquidity and profitability. History teaches us to pay attention to each component of the investment. For example, I do not think that real estate is the most solid investment. Faith in it is related rather to an incredible increase in property values ??over the past 20 years. However, the profitability of investments in real estate can be regulated by the state tax policy, the emergence of new technologies in urban planning, social situation in the country, etc. So in the first place for reliability, I would bet all the same investment in physical precious metals (bullion coins, bars). Maybe now the price of these assets a bit overpriced, but the bubbles are observed in all sectors of real assets. General advice when choosing investment strategy - divide money into 3 parts. 1st part (ranging from 10 to 30%, depending on the store of your character and investment strategy) should dedicate to riskier, higher-yielding instruments (mutual funds, stocks, control, etc.) for periods of 1 year or more, the second part (50 to 80%) invested in capital preservation srednekonservativnye instruments (investments, commercial property, vysokoreytingovye bonds, etc.) - the medium term. Part 3 (5-20%) - "bury". Want a long time (more than 10 years) and so did not know about the potential "expropriators", while important to you is to keep the cost of money - in ivestitsionnom portfolio is dominated by precious stones and metals, Swiss bank accounts and other low-yielding assets, with high privacy.
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