Oil will strengthen the ruble

Higher oil prices contributed to a significant strengthening of the Russian ruble. If at the beginning of January 2011 the dollar was worth 31.1 rubles., Then in early March the U.S. currency fell to 28.3 rubles. per unit. What will the dollar go from here? Questions Portal Bank.ru The Deputy Director General of «SKM group» Maria Kondrashin. - Prior to any minimum level in the current year could fall of the dollar in Russia and under what conditions? - I believe that the U.S. dollar against the ruble at the end of the year will be around 26-27 rubles / dollar. The basis of this prediction based on the following assumptions: in 2011, continued global economic recovery that will increase the aggregate demand for oil, so we can conclude that the positive dynamics of energy prices. It is no secret that the price of oil directly contributes to the strengthening of the ruble against the U.S. dollar. High inflation in the early years would force the government to pursue tighter monetary policies, including by further improving refinancing, which should also contribute to the growth of the ruble against the U.S. dollar. Necessary to reduce the huge budget deficit by increasing exports. In order to improve the competitiveness of their products in international markets, the U.S. administration will have in the coming years to resort to a soft devaluation of its currency. - How can the dollar by year-end in case of continued tensions in the Middle East? - Will continue the rapid growth of oil price quotations on the world trading floors that will lead to a sharp strengthening of the ruble, but by the end of the year, he hardly will exceed 26 rubles per dollar. I expect the rise in oil prices to a maximum of 2008, ie in the region of 140-150 dollars per barrel. With such a sharp rise in oil prices NATO countries are unlikely to maintain a neutral position with respect to the Arab revolution. Do not rule out a military solution to the problems of Arab revolution, with the aim of relieving tension and preventing the spread of dissent on the main oil-producing countries of the Arab world. - What will the actions of monetary authorities in the containment of the ruble exchange rate? - The government will be forced to tighten monetary policy by raising the refinancing rate. First and foremost, this policy is due to measures to combat inflation, after two months in 2011 completed a six-month inflation rate predictive. The inflation will also affect the growth and energy prices, which in turn increases the cost of energy in the domestic market, plus, with an increase in oil prices, will increase the inflow of petrodollars into the country, which will also put pressure on inflation in the country. Under these conditions, monetary tightening is almost the only tool to keep inflation in the forecast interval. Against this background, I expect that the Central Bank raised the refinancing rate at 1,5-2 percentage points.