Why can not compete with state banks?

March 23 in Moscow for a conference on "Future Bank strategy 2011-2012", organized by the Agency "National Business Forum, will bring together leading experts in the financial industry in the country. On the eve of the opening questions Portal Bank.ru said one of the speakers of the event-known economist Mikhail Khazin. - In Russia, notably a significant development only major state banks, all the rest are just trying to catch up. Can we expect real progress of private banks? - Previously, it seemed that the state banks will be ousted from the market more efficient competitors: Russian private banks and foreign banks. The advantages of private banks had a higher flexibility and customer orientation, foreign banks - the cheap financing and effective business model. But now it has become clear that in current circumstances, to compete with state banks can not: They have access to cheap financing, the trust of the people and government support. Therefore, it is state-owned banks will set the pace of development of Russia's banking sector, and private banks will have to either join them or be satisfied with that portion of the market, which they left. So the real reason for the progress of private banks, I do not see. State clearly identify their priorities in this area - the banking system will be built around state-owned banks. - Have the domestic bankers western experts to write and implement their strategies? - Participation of Western experts in the writing strategies of Russian banks is only when the corresponding bank owned by foreigners. Now foreign banks have gradually reduce its presence in Russia, so that the involvement of Western experts - a rare phenomenon. - What could be the growth driver for the banking sector in the coming years? - Now the main resource of growth for banks is the development of the retail segment - primarily we are talking about retail lending. Real sector companies, where possible, prefer to raise funds abroad (where they are cheaper), so the demand for credit has been concentrated in certain sectors that continue to evolve, but for some reason are unable to attract foreign funding. But retail lending - a resource for the development of the domestic market. Lending to the population while in Russia is weak, so the reserve growth in this segment is. - What are the dangers to fight the bankers? - The main danger which threatens the banking sector - a lack of demand growth. Work in these conditions, the long-term basis - a complicated task that Russian banks have not yet encountered. The same retail segment will develop in a stable income (at best), which significantly limits the prospects for market growth. - How much has the needs of clients of credit institutions: whether people continue to take expensive loans and make deposits, lagging behind inflation? - Because, as I said above, the development of the banking system will depend on the policies of state banks, to the extent the changing needs of customers will not play a big role. For now, this policy involves contributions to the rates below inflation, and expensive loans - and it works. It is clear that the resource growth at the same time is limited and that at some point may come a turning point: deposit rates rise, lending rates will fall, thus reducing bank margins. But the reason for this change in the near future, I do not see.