Unreliable insurance - Business Insurance is becoming increasingly risky

According to forecasts, Expert RA, the volume of the Russian insurance market in 2009 will amount to 520 billion rubles. (In 2008 prices), a decrease compared with 2008 by 7,4%. The largest contribution to the fall of the insurance market would make insurance hull (-44 bn.) Property insurance of legal entities from fire and other risks (-12 bn.) LCA (-7 billion rubles). Insurances and the National Assembly and disease (- 6 billion rubles.). The growth of premiums in 2009 is expected to insure construction (SMR) and financial risks associated with the Olympic construction and other infrastructure projects, as well as in those kinds of insurance where one party is the state. Survival game in 2009 will be a serious test of financial sustainability of Russian insurers. According to forecasts, "Expert RA", by 2010, including by reason of strengthening the process of mergers and acquisitions in the domestic insurance market will be only 400-450 of insurance groups and companies. in the red zone are the company to actively build your insurance portfolio due to dumping, the purpose of eventual sale of the company. The result is a pyramid insurance, payments are made through contributions from new customers. In a falling market paying such companies have already formed an insurance portfolio is guaranteed to exceed the current income. Companies who belittle your insurance rates during the boom, will be insolvent at the time of crisis. Currently, insurers are trying to develop an effective set of crisis management measures. At the same time they are faced with a reduction of demand and rising competition on the one hand, and an increase in the average payment increase in the number of hits on insurance cases and the rising costs of reinsurance protection, on the other side. Many of the companies to attract insurers and get at least some money to cover losses on the insurance portfolios of the newly recruited rely on dumping, which is tantamount to suicide. In addition to the insurance risks that arise in determining insurance rates and building insurance reserves, Russian insurers are currently subject to more investment and a number of external risks. In a falling market to occur cumulation of market, credit, insurance and institutional risks of insurance companies. According to analysts, "Expert RA" in the red zone are the company to actively build your insurance portfolio due to dumping, specializing in auto insurance, oriented in its activities to the bank sales channel, actively invested reserves in the stock market instruments, concentrating them in one or more banks (except the backbone). Crisis effects of global financial crisis will exacerbate the problems that have emerged in the domestic insurance market during the period of rapid growth, and lead to significant restructuring of the entire insurance system. With the market will take about half of the insurance companies will disappear insurance pyramid, the process of their withdrawal from the market will be extremely painful. Significant changes will affect market structure by type of insurance. In 2008, the first of more than 50% of assessments were collected under contracts of compulsory insurance. The share of voluntary insurance is even more reduced due to the crisis and the planned introduction of compulsory liability insurance. The crisis will have a significant impact on insurance companies that are part of the financial and industrial groups, financial difficulties. Financial-industrial groups, seeking to improve their situation will get rid of noncore assets, ie insurance companies. There are two possible scenarios. In the first case, the insurance company with good customer base, will be sold in favor of one of the largest insurance groups. For example, recently announced the sale of captive insurer group Severstal - Insurance Group Sheksna. Buyer turned out to be insurance group SOGAZ. Thus, in the next year we should expect a new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the Russian insurance market. In this case, the multiplier value of insurance companies will already be well below pre-crisis level. In the second case, if you sell the company to fail, it will be output from the liquid assets, investment insurers again increase the proportion of bills and other organizations. As a result, the reliability of these companies will fall sharply. Such actions of owners can cause bankruptcies of many Russian insurers. In addition, in order to survive as an anti-crisis measures, some insurance companies may return to more profitable operations nonclassical insurance or increase their share of their insurance portfolios. According to the forecast, "Expert RA" in 2009, their share in total contributions will increase from 10 to 20%. It is hoped that the crisis will ultimately have a positive impact on the development of the Russian insurance market: increase the efficiency of domestic insurers, will reduce the appetite of the insurance intermediaries, insurance companies will turn face to their customers. Without a doubt, the global financial crisis will accelerate the development of insurance legislation - the emergence of regulatory bankruptcy of insurance companies and transfer of insurance portfolios, resolving inclusion in the capital of insurance companies, subordinated loans, which should further boost the capitalization of the industry, the establishment of legal restrictions on taking large risks thereby increasing the reliability of Russian insurers. During the crisis, the first time in Russia there were official data on average tariffs of Russian insurers. To somehow cope with the increasing incidence of dumping, the Federal Service for Insurance Supervision published a reference on the average tariffs applied by insurance companies for voluntary insurance of ground transportation. TOP-20 ON THE RUSSIAN INSURANCE MARKET VALUE Premiums, 2008