Reducing inflation in Russia, said the continuing deterioration of the situation

At the meeting with Putin, the head of the Central Bank said that inflation in 2009 in Russia would be "well below" the stated 13%. Do you agree with this forecast? I agree with the prediction of Sergei Ignatiev. Indeed, the level of 13% for inflation, subject to reduction of industrial production by 15-20% drop in GDP at 8.5-10%, and lower real incomes and consumption levels are unlikely to achieve. Given that the government could adjust the plans of natural monopolies to raise tariffs, inflation in 2009 is likely to be significantly below 13%. More accurate figure, unfortunately, result in difficult - all this guesswork. In your opinion, what the inflation rate will be in the U.S., Western Europe, China and Brazil? And in developed countries, and China and Brazil, the economy is in recession, economic growth is absent or minimal, although China and Brazil, perhaps, to withstand a number of looks a bit better - and developed countries, and Russia. In the U.S., compared with April inflation in May was 0.1%. In Europe, in May, falling industrial production on an annualized basis was the highest since the beginning of tracking this data in January 1990. Among the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), Russia is most affected by the crisis. In I quarter of China's GDP grew by 6.1%, India - 5,8%, Brazil - fell by 1.8%, Russia - fell by 9.8%. Probably, the weak macroeconomic data and lower levels of consumption (or rate of growth of consumption to past performance, as in China), the main threat is likely to be deflation, rather than high inflation. At the same time, economic data show that in the II quarter of economic activity in China is restored, and on the background of the high banking activity and excessively high rates of lending to the threat of inflation exists, but not rated as high. Why is the background of a global crisis in the West, there is deflation, and our prices will still continue to grow? In Russia, the prices in the industry are also reduced by a crisis in the winter, we are clearly seen. Consumer prices continue to rise under the influence of two main factors: the weakening of the ruble, which affects the prices of imported goods, and the planned increase in tariffs in natural monopolies. In some segments, where demand is particularly strong of falling, prices are falling. Reducing the rate of inflation - is evidence of improvement in the Russian economy or, conversely, its deterioration? Reducing inflation by itself - not positive and not negative. But it is quite natural reaction to the transition economy in a recession, falling incomes and consumption levels. Therefore, reducing inflation in Russia not only reflects a lamentable picture of the economy, but also predicts a further disappointing economic data.